If Guthrie Fails, The Orioles Fail

Jeremy Guthrie's struggles continued last night, giving up five runs on 11 hits in 4.2 innings in the Orioles 9-1 loss to the Athletics. On the season he is 7-12 with a 5.43 ERA on the season. He has now given up 81 earned runs in his 23 starts; to compare last year he had 76 earned runs allowed in a total of 30 starts.

This start was disastrous for Guthrie. His fastball did not move at all plus his curveball did not break much and was an easy target for the hitters looking for singles. As Jim Palmer said on the MASN broadcast, Guthrie does not have a knockout pitch like last year, which allows hitter to constantly foul off pitches to raise the pitch count and work Guthrie for hits.

What's worse, Guthrie just cannot seem to be good with Matt Wieters right now. He was solid with Gregg Zaun, but Zaun is no longer here, so Guthrie has to adapt to Wieters. The fact that Guthrie does better with a veteran is a pattern; he did very well with Ramon Hernandez last season and kept it with Zaun, but the Orioles have business to do with the future of Wieters, so these two need to start playing well together.

For the Orioles sake if they want to end this terrible stretch and at least play well in the rest of the season, they need Guthrie to do better. Even though Brad Bergeson returning should help, the fact is right now the Orioles are relying on four rookie pitchers in the starting rotation at any time with a rookie catcher. Not to mention this team is extremely young. It is almost a given that with the rookie rotation might of Hernandez, Berken, Matusz and Tillman, the Orioles will be fortunate to get 22 innings combined from their four starts, which tires out the bullpen very quickly. When Bergeson returns from the DL and replaces Berken, this can help matters, but that will still leave four reliable pitchers in the rotation.

The only reason I point out Guthrie is that he has been solid the previous two years and was supposed to be the Orioles ace. If he cannot, then the bullpen will never see enough rest. Maybe it is not terribly important the Orioles are not winning, but this has to be bothering the Orioles and the fans. The worst thing is, there probably is not an answer for this problem.

Except possibly next year. Or the Ravens on Thursday.

(Photo credit: AP)

Expectations Are A Funny Thing

Remember when O’s fans and baseball writers were projecting this season? The only rookies that were mentioned of coming up and having an impact this season were Matt Wieters and in some cases Chris Tillman (usually from the more less-educated writers). Well, we are a good portion through the season and all that can be said is that expectations are a very funny thing. The ones who most pundits least expected to make an impact (if they even knew their names) -- Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Nolan Reimold, David Hernandez – have made significant cases for being full-time players in the major leagues. Meanwhile, Matt Wieters seems to be feeling the effects of the immense pressure put on him (also known as being a human being) and is off to a struggling start to his career.

So what do we make of all this? I know the first question that all fans want answered is about Matt Wieters, and whether he will turn it around as we all are starting to sweat about his struggles. Honestly I think that fans need to be patient with Matt and understand just how he’s going about his plate appearances. It’s very clear that the hitting fundamentals are there; he seems to know the strike zone well and his swing is gorgeous. However, it is apparent that Matt is still thinking a lot while he’s up to bat, and that’s natural for a young player. He’s still getting used to the pitchers, and is obviously still trying to get his timing. When all is said and done he’ll be fine, just breathe and remember the prolonged struggles of Nick Markakis and Adam Jones when they first started with the O’s. They turned out just fine.

Of the successes, I have to say that some of it should not be as big of a surprise as it is to most. Particularly I’d like to bring up Brad Bergesen, who is currently the most effective starter on the Orioles roster. Bergesen spent all of last season outperforming the top pitching prospects in this organization, and showed that his stuff could play in the major leagues during Spring Training. The only question was whether or not that would hold up when the games counted, and after going through a rough patch, his string of brilliant outings has shown that it can. As I stated in last year’s Prospect Report, Bergesen’s mental makeup and pitch control suits him perfectly for the major leagues, and we’re now watching him do in the majors just what he did in the minors. Nolan Reimold has probably been the most unexpected success, not in that I didn’t think he was capable of popping some home runs, but the level of discipline and maturity he has shown at the plate and on the field has been so far and away better than I expected from watching him previous years. There’s a good chance Nolan Reimold and Brad Bergesen will not just be competing for the O’s Rookie of the Year, but the AL Rookie of the Year.

West Coast Brings Birds Batting Down to Earth

It had been nice for the Orioles, defeating the Nationals two out of three, sweeping AL East rival Toronto, then taking two of four from AL Central leading Detroit. But on the west coast against Seattle and Oakland, the Orioles bats fell silent, losing five of six games and scoring a combined 10 runs in those games. Only once did the Orioles score more than two runs in those games.

Things came front and center when Aubrey Huff got in a tirade in the dugout after another close hit. The last five games certainly have been frustrating, but the problems with the Oriole bats were clear on the west coast.

A number of combined factors came into this. Brian Roberts has gone two for his last 30 at-bats. No one other than Luke Scott or Nolan Reimold has homered in the last 10 games. A number of Aubrey Huff's hits have been close to home runs, but not close enough. Cesar Izturis was put onto the DL, so a .260 bat is out of the lineup. Early struggles with Matt Wieters and current ones with the Orioles bench also do not help.

With the struggles of the rotation, the Orioles need the bats to succeed. Jeremy Guthrie has not looked good at all lately and the young arms of the rotation can only do so much. Although the bullpen has been good, the fact is this team will normally need to win by establishing strong leads and holding on to them in the late innings. Very rarely with this squad can the starting pitching win games on their own. So when the bats are silent, like this west coast trip, the Orioles will not win.

With Oscar Salazar coming up for Izturis, more Norfolk players are coming up. Although they have been doing well, in the long term for the season they will probably struggle. There really is not much the front office can do about this. The Orioles are not in competition mode and should not sign anyone, and the Orioles would not benefit much by bringing up more Tides players. So this will come down to the veteran bats doing well. Roberts and Huff will need to get out of their slumps plus some of the other players will need to step up in the wake of injuries.

The season continues to be a struggle, but the team has plenty of bright spots, and there is time to get back to winning ways. At the very least, they will not be going back to the west coast until the start of July.

(Photo credit: AP)

Jamie Walker Needs Another Chance

After giving up two home runs in Tuesday's loss to the Mariners, Jamie Walker's job in the bullpen could be in trouble. Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reports that Walker's time as an Oriole "may be numbered."

In the article Zrebiec quotes Dave Trembley as saying about Walker's future: "Obviously, I'd like things to be better; I'd like to see him be more effective against left-handed hitters. I'm aware of what's going on. Hopefully, it gets better."

Since he got here in 2007 from Detroit, his job has been to be a lefty-specialist, perhaps even be a setup man at times. His current line is not terrible, a 5.12 ERA with nine strikeouts and no walks. He has yet to earn a decision and has only blown one save. But opponents are batting .373 against him, and he has not been doing well in his job of getting out lefties. He was given another chance this season after struggling last year with injuries, and after starting well, he has done very poorly in the last four weeks.

But this is a little harsh to bring his way. No doubt Walker is struggling, and it is possible he is on his last legs at 38. But the Orioles will not be gaining much with losing Walker. No one will take him in a trade, and he won't go to the minors. Sure he isn't playing well, but he had a wonderful start to the season. Plus, another young arm would have to come up to replace him. The only person that could be brought up as a lefty specialist would be Alberto Castillo from Norfolk, but there is no telling that he will be any better. Chris Ray needs much more time and is not a lefty specialist, and no one else from the Tides would be a valid replacement. The only thing the team would gain by dropping Walker is salvaging a little bit of salary.

Obviously he needs to perform better or else the Orioles truly will need to release him, but for now, it is worth it to try to fix Walker's problems and keep him as an Orioles. Maybe he will be able to pitch better with more time from Matt Wieters. Maybe the pressure will get him to perform better. Give him the chance, for now.

(Photo credit: ESPN)

Hill, Wieters Succeeding in Unexpected Ways

Well I am back from my two-week hiatus, and I wish I could say it felt like forever. However, I just couldn’t let Falco and Windsor flail around on their own on this thing, could I? With the O’s getting hot and the young guns mowing down batters as of late, this is just the perfect time for me to jump in and talk some baseball. As for last night’s game against the Mariners…

1-0? Not exactly what any of us expected out of these 2009 Orioles, but I suppose they haven’t done much but surprise us in the small ways that do just enough to keep a fan base interested but not quite enough to take the leap we all expect them to make in 2010. With David Hernandez, Jason Berken, and Brad Bergesen in the starting rotation it is easy to forget about what could become the best acquisition the Orioles made in this offseason- Rich Hill. I won’t rehash Hill’s incredible 2007 success and his “rising star” status in the majors before he came crashing down to Earth in 2008, but it seems as though there couldn’t have been a better spot for the former Cubs’ starter. He has put his complete trust and confidence in Baltimore’s pitching coaches Rick Kranitz and Alan Dunn and it has paid off. After two solid (albeit short) outings to start the season, and one early yank at the hands of the Blue Jays, Hill found his groove against the Mariners last night, pitching 7 innings (one of the longest any starter has gone this season for Baltimore) and allowing only 2 hits. Most importantly, he walked just three batters- this time last year he was throwing wilder than Daniel Cabrera. Hill knows that he needs this group of coaches and this organization to succeed. The Orioles know that a composed and effective Rich Hill does wonders for the starting rotation. It may be one game, but it could be a sign that this pitcher is regaining his front-end-starter form.

It was reported that Wieters would be DHing last night, so it was a pleasant surprise when the rookie catcher got behind the plate. While his bat may not be catching up to major league pitching just yet (2-15), I have been impressed with his ability to handle pitchers thus far. Granted, he has gotten to catch for Jeremy Guthrie, but the numbers don’t lie. In his starts behind the plate (and the Orioles last 4 games including Zaun's catching on Sunday), Orioles starters have had a 1.93 ERA compared to 5.13 overall (28th in the majors and 2nd to last in the American League). Moreover, Wieters is doing an excellent job of blocking the plate, which was on display when I was able to see him on Saturday. Will this continue at this pace? Of course not, and I am sure that he has a long way to go in handling pitchers- that is the part of his game that always needs work as a young catcher. He may not be starting the way O’s fans would like with his bat, but for now he appears well ahead of schedule with his glove.

It seems as though Erik Bedard has rediscovered the talent that made him such an attractive trade piece in 2008, bringing the Orioles Sherrill, Jones, and Chris Tillman in return for the leftie. His 2.48 ERA is good for 4th in the American League, and he is no longer harping at his manager or refusing to throw more than 100 pitches in a game. It will be intriguing to watch what happens tonight when the Seattle starter goes up against his old team for the first time (he was injured and his rotation spot was not up the last two series’ these teams played). Bedard has not allowed more than 3 runs in any start this season- and he is going up against David Hernandez, who was excellent in his solitary start this season. Veteran ace vs. a rookie who probably should still be in AAA? Let’s hope the Orioles bats are louder tonight than they were yesterday.

A Good Time to be an O's Fan

Oh boy, the air is electric in Baltimore today. I would like to echo the sentiments of Baltimore Sun writer Peter Schmuck in wishing all a Happy Wieters Day, as all of us can look forward to his arrival tonight against the Detroit Tigers. Not only this but the Orioles have won four in a row (six of their last seven), recent call-up Nolan Reimold has taken a hold of the left field job, and young pitchers like Jason Berken and David Hernandez have held their own in their first major league starts.

The recurring theme in all of these pieces of good news is youth. The exemplary play of the Orioles rookies this season -- all of whom came up through this system -- has been the biggest reason to hope and the biggest reason the Orioles have gone on their recent tear. Not too long ago, Nolan Reimold was a forgotten prospect; he had been hampered by injuries and seemed to be losing the window to make it to the bigs as a full-time player. Fast forward to this season, and Reimold was not only able to reaffirm prospect status but has solidified the every day left field position with the O's. Reimold's swing looks far better than it looked in Bowie last year, as he still has the raw power but has improved his plate coverage considerably. The last key for him was in making adjustments, and he seems to be doing just that.

The young pitchers have to give O's fans a ton of hope, as Bergesen, Berken, and Hernandez have all won their major league debuts and all have shown the flashes of ability that they could stick for awhile here. And the best news with these three is that they aren't close to the best that the organization has to offer when it comes to pitching talent. The big guns are still on the way in Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Patton, et al. David Hernandez is the most intriguing of the pitchers in the majors right now, because there is significant conversation over whether or not he'll be a starter in the long term. Based on his debut, I believe there is some more credence to the idea that he could be a starter, because his changeup was used very effectively and he flashed the curveball. If he can regularly throw all four pitches (fastball, slider, change, curve) for strikes and go 100+ pitches as he did yesterday, I don't see why he can't make it as a starter with the adjustments he's made. Brad Bergesen was the earliest of these to come up, but he's fallen on a rough patch and looks to reassert himself tonight.

Bergesen will be throwing to his Bowie battery-mate Matt Wieters tonight, which is easily the biggest point of excitement for O's fans today. It's hard to argue with all of this excitement, because there have been so few reasons for Orioles fans to be happy recently, and Matt has been touted universally by baseball people to be the real deal. I'll be fascinated to see just how he handles the pressure; it's alot to ask a kid to be the savior of a franchise, and one has to hope that it doesn't cause him to press too much at the plate or behind it.

Rolling out the Orange Carpet for Matt Wieters

Windsor is off on yet another vacation, and while I am still technically on sabbatical from ATH for the rest of this week I couldn’t in good conscience leave it with only one writer for the week.

Well folks, it is time. There has been a great deal of debate over whether to bring up Chris Tillman or David Hernandez, whether it is time to release Felix Pie or any of the underperforming pitchers, this move was never in debate and predicted long before the season started. That’s right, Matt Wieters is coming to Baltimore starting. The team was waiting for Wieters to sit out the first month of the season so that he would have an extra year under team control before he would reach free agency (a very sound decision in my opinion), and for him to go on a hot streak to ride into his time in the majors. After a seemingly torturous wait, he is taking over on Friday against the Detroit Tigers.

It couldn’t come at a better time, either. I have enjoyed watching Gregg Zaun, believe it or not, and have really rooted for him to succeed. He truly enjoys the game, and his struggles remind me a lot of Kevin Millar, another lighthearted veteran who was long past his prime by the time he got to the Orioles. However, Zaun’s smile won’t make up for a pathetic appearance on both sides of the plate. His .216 average is his worst since 1998 and second worst in his career. His throws to second to gun down runners have been wild, and there is a chance that part of the struggles of the O’s pitching staff has been a product of his calling of games. Zaun will still be able to serve as an excellent mentor for Wieters, but he is not and has not been a true starting catcher in a long time. Baltimore fans should be grateful for his time, enthusiasm, and energy, but not for his play.

However, I am not going to join the chorus of sportswriters and fans who think that Wieters will dive right into the 3 spot in the order and start giving Joe Mauer a run for his money as best catcher in the American League. Matt Wieters will have his struggles, if only at first. The Georgia Tech standout took a while to get going in AAA, only recently going .391 in his last 46 at bats to pull his batting average to .305. This rookie has never seen major league pitching, and his adjustment time to Norfolk will only be exacerbated at the major league level, particularly against the pitching staffs of the AL East. Additionally, it is a lot tougher to call a game in the majors than in the minors. The hitters know all the tricks, and Wieters needs to gain the knowledge and skills that only experience can teach. He will be great, but it could take time.

Nor can this move be used as an excuse to bring up the other youngsters, particularly in the pitching staff. Wieters was a known commodity, and he has nothing more he can learn at the minor league level- I will leave the arguments for not spoiling pitching prospects to Falco and Windsor, but Wieters is a unique case. He is not being brought up in desperation or for lack of any other option (though the organization doesn’t really have any other good options at catcher). This move won’t turn the O’s around, but it will definitely give fans another reason to watch and could add a few wins here and there by September.

I will be in town to see the game on Saturday, and perhaps get a glimpse of some historic event in the young catcher’s career. It certainly won’t be the last one.

Here He Comes: Matt Wieters Coming Up, as is David Hernandez

Andy MacPhail has made the move; Matt Wieters will be brought up from Norfolk for his major league debut on Friday against the Tigers. Also coming up for Thursday will be David Hernandez according to the Baltimore Sun, as Koji Uehara will be heading to the DL.

For Orioles fans, Wieters coming up is big. The best prospect in the entire minor leagues has been hyped up the last two years, and will play in Camden Yards Friday. He has done well with the Tides, batting above .300.

What is important to know is that Wieters is not going to be a savior this season or next season. For all of his talent, it is very unlikely that he will have a great season. He could have a decent one, this will not make the Orioles a winning team this season. But it is exciting to finally see him in the orange and black. The Orioles had been waiting to bring him up because of arbitration issues, but now he is ready to go.

But also, David Hernandez is coming up. There had been rumors that he might be the next person, and for the Orioles the hand is forced due to Uehara's injury. Check out Windsor's Prospect Report on him here. So far numerous pitchers from Norfolk have been needed. To name them, Brad Bergeson, Jason Berken, Radhames Liz, Matt Albers, and now David Hernandez. Let's just hope that Chris Tillman is not added to that list anytime soon.

(Photo credit: MASN)

To Orioles Fans: Be Patient

It has been a while since we've posted here, but don't worry, we are back. We all are just busy, but hopefully once things get a little more steady we will be back in full force.

With this, it has been nice for the Orioles lately. They won two out of three in the Battle of the Beltway with the Nats and they won the Memorial Day matinee with Toronto. But, with people are getting hurt and with the release of Adam Eaton, more rosters moves are being made. Jason Berken has been called up and will start today for the Birds. For info on him, check out Windsor's Prospect Report on him. Berken has done very well in his five starts with Norfolk this season, going 2-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 16 strikeouts to six walks.

But one thing that has been occurring is the fans are getting more impatient. Attendance for the Orioles is down, and many people want to see Matt Wieters and the big three pitchers in the majors. 11 losing seasons about to be 12 is upsetting fans. Many were wondering and hoping if Chris Tillman was coming up in the roster, one of the big three pitchers. Especially with the initial successes of Brad Bergeson and Nolan Reimold, who were not the highly touted people, we should bring up the bigger names, right?

But to all Orioles fans, we need to be patient, and wait this out.

In this day and age, we have all come to a "football mentality" of we want things happening sooner rather than later. It is especially frustrating when the Orioles have had losing seasons numerous years and the AL East is routinely beating Baltimore. But Andy MacPhail is right not to rush anyone that is very important, mainly Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta. Bringing them up now will not make the Orioles a competitive team when they are not ready will only hurt their chances to reach their potential.

In the past, the Orioles have had issues bringing up farm system players too quickly. Daniel Cabrera and Jeff Fiorentino come to mind. Cabrera had all the potential in the world to be a dominating fastball-changeup pitcher, even many opposing general managers felt so, but was brought up from Bowie in 2004 after less than a full season there. He had some bright spots, but he never established control and is now off the roster. Jeff Fiorentino was another player with great potential as an outfielder. In 2005 when the team needed outfielders, he was brought up from single-A Frederick, and although he played all right, he never got to his potential. After bouncing to a couple teams in 2008 he landed back on the Orioles, but he is not expected to be a major part of the Orioles future. He is currently in Norfolk batting .254.

The Orioles will not be competitive if they bring up any of the four above players, and they can't waste their potential. Bring them up when they are ready. Likely Wieters will be up this year and at least Tillman will join be the start of next season. But MacPhail is doing the right thing and being patient with these players.

We need to be as well. It is hard, but being patient with the young Birds is the way to go. But for now, let's celebrate the successes of the ones that have come into the majors, and good luck to Berken today.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Okay So... Orioles Now, Huh?

It seems like Maryland sports did us good these last few months, which if you had asked me in December I thought we would have the most active spring training analysis out there. The lack of which was a result of all the other great achievements that pushed the upcoming 60-70 win season to the backburner. While we are all in mourning over the Lady Terps’ fall in the Elite Eight, let’s appreciate the run that they made and the excitement that the men’s team gave us in miraculously making the tournament and upsetting Cal in the first round.

However, I have to say a bit about the Louisville game last night. When a team gets accustomed to coming from behind like Maryland had this NCAA tournament, fans will wait and wait for that big run to come. A few times I thought it was there- when Krisit Toliver made a three pointer followed up by the supporting cast putting together a nifty layup. At the end of the day, a team’s stars have to come through and make the plays to create momentum and take the game over. The Cardinals did an excellent job of stifling Toliver and Coleman for the most part and forcing the other role players to keep the Terps in the game. And they did, for the most part. The intensity however was clearly on the side of the Cardinals and every time Maryland looked to make a run Louisville didn’t flinch. I don’t know how much the variety of defenses Louisville threw at Maryland was the result of their Coach Jeff Walz’s tutelage at the hands of Brenda Frese, but it was effective. This was a terrible way for Marissa Coleman and Kristi Toliver to end their careers at Maryland, that is all I can say.

Now I suppose, with about a week left until Opening Day, we are finally compelled to turn our eyes to the Orioles and the disastrous starting rotation, the Matt Wieters-watch, and look once again for improvement. It seemed like last year we entered the season with the same sort of patience, but fans quickly grew restless when the expected outcome actually came to pass. Fans said before the season that they knew the Orioles would be awful but were happy with the direction it was going; they were essentially told it would get worse before it got better. And yet as the trade deadline approached there were many Baltimore fans who wanted the Orioles to make a move; to add a bat to strengthen the middle of the lineup or make a push for a high quality shortstop. This year could even be worse than last year if the pitching staff plays to most people’s (not mine) expectations. Let’s hope that patience keeps up this time around.

The most exciting and most hyped part of this season (both locally and nationally) is the arrival of Matt Wieters in Baltimore sometime this summer. He is being hailed as the next Longoria, or even more incredible- the best catcher in the American League (yes, including Joe Mauer)! We often forget how young Wieters is and how much development he may need- hitting against real major leaguers is much different than spring training or AA work, and catching against some of the smartest hitters in the game is a tremendous challenge for a rookie catcher. Look, I am certain he will do well in the long run, but how will fans react if he is hitting .220 a month into his time with the O’s? I don’t think it will happen, but if he does struggle the fan base will have to restrain themselves and keep up the patience a bit longer.

Since the last baseball season ended for the Orioles, we have seen Joe Flacco lead last year’s 6-10 club to the AFC Championship game. We have also seen the Maryland football team play erratically game to game en route to a Boise, Idaho bowl win. The Men’s basketball team disappointed then massively improved to squeak into the NCAA tournament, and the Women’s team played out of their minds until coughing it up in the Elite Eight. And of course along the way Maryland soccer picked up a national championship. All of the teams we closely follow here on ATH made the postseason, something rather incredible considering how negative the news seems at the time. Now we enter a season that seems slated to test our resolve for rebuilding. Whether we like it or not it’s Orioles time, brace yourself.

First Thoughts on Spring Training

It is that time again: the new baseball season is just around the corner and so we must start moving some attention to our beloved Orioles. Yes, they have been somewhat ignored of late and yes, this is long overdue. So, consider this the first foray into what will be a very intriguing spring for this young Orioles roster. This spring is riddled with storylines, most in my opinion centering around the uncertain rotation and the young prospects that give some hope to this long struggling franchise. Without further ado, here are some of my thoughts on Spring Training thus far:

1. Uehara has been far more impressive than I predicted he would. He has yet to allow a run thus far, most recently pitching three shutout innings against a strong Dominican lineup and showing excellent control in the process. Without a doubt he has given cause for the front office to exhale and know that they most likely have at least a serviceable No. 2 starter. Can he handle the extended workload of a starter over a long season? Will hitters catch up to him? These are serious concerns down the line, but so far so good.

2. Bergesen is showing all Orioles fans exactly what Bowie Baysox followers have already seen. Brad Bergesen is coming off of a brilliant season with the Baysox in which he set a franchise record for wins and won the Orioles Minor League Pitcher of the Year award for 2008. Bergesen does not project as a top starter, but he is confident and polished and should fit nicely as a back of the rotation starter who can eat innings for the Orioles. While he has turned heads with his play, I would still feel far better about him starting the year in AAA and giving Hayden Penn a chance to make it in the bigs as he his currently out of minor league options. The Orioles will need starters from the minors, and it would be invaluable to have a guy like Bergesen ready to go when called upon. A more detailed Prospect Report on Brad Bergesen can be found here.

3. Wieters has been brilliant, but not-so-fast, O's fans. Matt Wieters has, in every step thus far, surpassed the lofty expectations put upon him during his brief minor league career. While he has continued this progression through Spring Training, there is no reason for him to start the season in the majors given the fact that the Orioles have signed a serviceable catcher in Greg Zaun and Matt Wieters should not be put on the service clock any sooner than necessary. The Orioles are building for the future, not to win now. It is best for Matt to stay at a level in which he can hone his craft, particularly defensively, and work with some of those young pitchers who we hope to be mainstays of a future O's rotation.

4. Close attention needs to be paid to certain pitchers coming off of injury last season. In particular, the health of Troy Patton, Chris Ray, and Matt Albers will be crucial to this club. Thus far the news has been positive for all three; I'm looking for Patton to ideally start in AAA this year and be on the short list with Bergesen for callups, Chris Ray to be in a setup/part-time closer role, and for Matt Albers to make a push for the starting rotation. If all goes well and that comes to fruition, things would be looking significantly better for the Orioles not only in the short term, but the long term as well based on the youth of all three. On a minor league injury note, don't forget about Chorye Spoone-- he has been sidelined thus far with injury, but if he could get back on track he might just have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in this farm system.

Overall you have to be pleased with the Orioles front office thus far. They pulled off highway robbery in taking Felix Pie from the Cubs for Garrett Olson (who the Cubs then traded for, of all people, Aaron Heilmann), re-signed Markakis to a six-year deal, locked up Brian Roberts to a four-year deal, bolstered their bench with Ty Wigginton, and are exposing their young pitchers to the major leagues while keeping the pressure off by ensuring that they will start the year in the minors. Not bad at all for Andy MacPhail and this revamped O's organization.

Prospect Report: Welcome to the Arizona Fall League

Although the bats in Baltimore may have stopped for a couple weeks, a good number of the young birds are getting right back into the swing (no pun intended) down at the Arizona Fall League. I originally was under the impression that only a few players from the Orioles' farm system would be down there, but a total of eight Orioles minor leaguers will be partaking. Each week I will give updates on their performances, and I'll see if I can squeeze a Report in there while I'm at it. All of the Orioles' prospects will be playing with the Surprise Rafters, and their names are as follows:

-Brandon Snyder (1B)
-Blake Davis (SS)
-Ryan Keefer (RP)
-Brian Matusz (SP)
-Bob McCrory (RP)
-Chad Thall (RP)
-Matt Wieters (C)
-Nolan Reimold (OF)

So who has the most to prove of this bunch? Despite the hype around Brian Matusz and Nolan Reimold's push to make the big leagues, I still believe that Brandon Snyder has the most to prove. He's put up back-to-back superb performances in the Hawaii Winter League and in the Advanced-A Carolina League, but he is still plagued by doubts about consistency and power. There is no doubt about the top-tier prospect status of Wieters and Matusz, and players like Blake Davis, Bob McCrory, and Chad Thall have the advantage of being prospects at positions where the big league club has a glaring need. Brandon Snyder is recovering from fringe-prospect status, and plays a position that could be blocked off by the time he is ready for a jump.

That all being said, all eyes will be (and should be) on Brian Matusz and his performance this fall. They will try to break him in slowly to be sure, but when a team drafts a polished starting pitcher with the fourth overall pick there usually isn't a very long build-up from bullpen to starting. The most exciting thing about having a player like Brian Matusz (not to mention Matt Wieters) in the Fall Leagues is that these aren't just young players who may make the majors four years from now, these are both players who are no more than a year or so away from breaking into the big leagues.

People say that following something as small as the Arizona Fall League is boring and a waste of time. But watching a battery of Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters? That's worth the price of admission.

Prospect Report: Postseason Awards

Yes, yes, another opinion post, I know. But! I promise I’ll get back to writing actual prospect reports once we move closer to the Arizona Fall League. But in the meantime, seeing as the Orioles recently announced their postseason minor league awards (naming Matt Wieters the Player of the Year and Brad Bergesen the Pitcher of the Year) I felt I would put in my own award picks. While I am in complete agreement with the Orioles on those two picks, I thought I’d throw in some awards of my own to hand out.

Pitcher of the Year – Brad Bergesen – I felt like possibly going in a different direction, but if I did it would be for no other reason than to be contrarian. Bergesen was outstanding this year, setting the Bowie Baysox team record for wins after coming up from High-A Frederick. No reason to disagree with the organization on this one, however Chris Tillman is a tempting pick simply for his upside.

Player of the Year – Matt Wieters – Goes without saying; although Montanez won the triple crown in the Eastern League Matt Wieters established himself as possibly the best prospect in baseball. Because of his outstanding play both offensively and defensively, not to mention his consistent improvement throughout the year even through an upward move in competition, Wieters is the clear winner. It is a tough break for Montanez, because any other year he would’ve been bringing home this piece of hardware.

Most Improved Pitcher – Brad Bergesen – Bergesen picks up his second award here, albeit by a very slim margin. Bergesen went 3-6 last year in ten starts at Frederick with an ERA of 5.75 runs per game, and solidified his, well, anonymity. Essentially forgotten, he burst onto the scene this year and (see above) put up the finest performance of any pitcher in the organization. I will mention however, that a strong case can be made for Brandon Erbe. Erbe tweaked his mechanics over the offseason and regained his high prospect status with a resurgent performance this year after a horrendous 2007.

Most Improved Player – Brandon Snyder – What can I say, I’m a huge fan of Brandon Snyder. The topic of my very first Prospect Report this summer, Brandon Snyder had a fantastic season at High-A Frederick which has helped complete his comeback from a serious shoulder injury early in his career. Snyder was essentially dismissed after his lackluster play following shoulder surgery, putting up merely average numbers at Delmarva. He followed that disappointment by leading the Hawaiian League in batting and catching fire at Frederick. He finished the year batting .315 with 13 home-runs and 80 runs batted in for the Keys, picking up the offensive slack once Wieters left for Bowie.

Most Disappointing Pitcher – Tim Bascom – Bascom struggled mightily in his second professional year, pitching to a 5.78 ERA with a record of 6-5 in 19 starts. His career started in stunning fashion last season as he impressed mightily at Delmarva and contributed to the Keys’ run to the playoffs late in the year. Bascom raised hopes as being a big-time prospect, but his struggles this year raise serious doubts as to that possibility.
I will note, however, that it was seriously tempting to make this a shared award with Pedro Beato—Beato’s recent shoulder surgery causes me to cut him some slack. All that aside, I will say that Pedro Beato’s significant drop in velocity and performance makes me far more worried than Bascom’s struggles as they indicate more of a serious long-term problem. While Beato was a notable prospect before the season, I’m relatively certain that that run is over for good.

Most Disappointing Player – Billy Rowell – He struggled in every way imaginable this season; his batting average plummeted, minimal power production, poor defense, a lack of effort, and a poor attitude. Rowell has all of the gifts in the world, and that’s what makes his season the most disappointing of anyone in this system. Yes, he is very young, but couple the bad numbers with the arguably worse intangibles and he gets this ‘award’ in a runaway.

Manager of the Year – Brad Komminsk – I understand this is a prospect award segment, but I did want to take a moment to recognize Komminsk for his fantastic work with the Bowie Baysox this summer. He both developed young talent and created a winning atmosphere with a team that hadn’t found themselves in the playoffs for ten years. He did a masterful job handling his pitching staff and he deserves to be commended by all Orioles fans for his performance.

Special Awards:
Melvin Mora Award (or, “the late-bloomer award”) – Luis Montanez – “Sweet Lou”, they’ve come to call him in Bowie; Luis Montanez has found new life with the Baltimore Orioles. He was first drafted in 2000 as the 3rd overall pick by the Chicago Cubs, and failed to match up to expectations. His early encounters with the higher levels of competition were marked by failure and disappointment. For that reason he was essentially given up on and the Orioles picked him up as a minor league free agent. Fast forward and you have a 26-year old outfielder winning the Triple Crown in a league that he didn’t even play in for a month, batting .305 in the majors with three home runs in 36 games. That’s what we like to call a late-bloomer.

Mark Prior Award (or, “the once-amazing-talent-who-can-never-find-the-field-anymore award”) – Hayden Penn – This should be relatively easy for any Orioles fan who has had the misfortune of tracking this once top prospect during the past few years. Unlike Mark Prior, Hayden Penn’s injuries do not all stem from the arm, but the comparison still remains. Hayden Penn’s string of injuries makes it difficult to discern whether his lackluster performance is a result of diminished ability or simply not having enough time and opportunity to get into a groove. Whether it is appendicitis, a shattered bat on the leg, or merely a sore shoulder, this prospect can’t catch a break. Here’s to hoping for next year.

Manny Ramirez Award (or, “the fantastic-hitter-but-please-don’t-make-an-error award”) – Ryan Adams – The good: he has drawn rave reviews for his bat at Delmarva, reflected in an impressive .308 batting average for the 21-year old. The bad: he broke the record for errors in a season at second base. Hence the Manny Ramirez comparison. Unfortunately he’s not a good enough hitter to move to a corner infielder or outfielder position, and is going to have to get things straight to stay at second base. This is why people are very divided on what sort of prospect he will be, and why I personally leave him off of my Top-20 Orioles Prospects.

Jeff Fiorentino Award (or, “the horrendously-overmatched award”) – Billy Rowell – At 19, Billy Rowell proved that he had no business playing at High-A Frederick in his dismal performance this season. Many Orioles fans remember Jeff Fiorentino, who was rushed up to Baltimore early in his career and was hopelessly overmatched at the major league level. The one difference with Rowell is that I believe the organization had good reason to put him in this situation. With Billy Rowell the problem is with arrogance, and so I believe the Orioles front office might have been looking for him to experience this failure to ‘bring him down to earth’, so to speak.

Jamie Moyer Award (or, "the way-too-old-to-be-still-around award") - Julio Manon - Yes, that Julio Manon, who made a brief appearance with the Orioles last season and got pounded. Probably because of his straight fastball that serves up hits to major leaguers. Nonetheless this 35-year-old pitcher is still going, serving as the closer for the Bowie Baysox this season and accumulating a league-best 32 saves this season. If the man loves the game and can contribute to the Baysox, who am I to argue?


Photo Credits (top-to-bottom): Matt Wieters (MiLB.com); Brandon Snyder (Mike Janes/MLB.com); Lou Montanez (Will Bentzel/MLB.com)

No Shortage of Future Orioles at Bowie

“Could the Bowie Baysox beat the Seattle Mariners?”

“No.” quipped Windsor, suddenly pausing for a moment. “Well, depends who’s pitching.”

Windsor and I trekked down to Bowie last Sunday to catch the Binghamton Mets face off against the O’s double-A affiliate on what turned out to be a very special event. It was Fan Appreciation Night, and this club certainly knows how to throw a good event like this. All the players were out signing autographs up until 15 minutes before the game, with the Matt Wieters line longer than 90 feet by my estimation. I was getting the autograph of Ryan Finan when he motioned to the player next to him and said to me, “You gotta get David Hernandez, he is incredible.” The sportsmanship and good will of the players was exemplary towards the fans, and Bowie remains one of the best parks I have been to to watch a baseball game (and there is quite a bit of competition there). Oh, and they did eventually play the game…

Brad Bergesen impressed from the first pitch. He had no fear about going right at batters from the very start of the count, throwing first pitch strikes to the first 15 batters he faced. When he did miss the strike zone, it wasn’t by much. As a result, most hits against Bergesen came on a pitchers count because the batters knew that Bergesen wasn’t going to go outside the strike zone. It appeared that every pitch was going to be hittable if the batter knew where it was going in the zone. I am not sure whether this was by Bergesen’s design or whether Matt Wieters was calling the game that way, but it was astounding how he was able to pound the strike zone.

Moreover, his composure on the mound was Even when he went up 0-2 on batters Bergesen did not back off, consistently forcing the Binghamton batters to swing into easy outs. In his six innings of work, Bergesen gave up two solo home runs, after each of which he retired the next batter. He has a short memory, and immediately went back to work after each home run. He could have gone out for the 7th in my opinion, but even so this was an incredibly strong outing for the future Oriole.

That was the good news for the pitching. The bats were largely another story. We did not get to see Nolan Reimold or Matt Wieters sport the offensive numbers they have been known for. I would best summarize Nolan Reimold’s at bats with the phrase “swing away.” It seemed that on every pitch he saw the potential for a home run, and would only lay off the ball if it was down in the dirt. I understand why O’s fans are so enamored with the idea of Nolan Reimold, but there is a reason he is 24 and has not had a prolonged stay in the majors yet. He is batting .278 at AA and has strikeout numbers reminiscent of Corey Patterson. In fact, he reminds me of Luke Scott with LESS patience at the plate. His fielding is mediocre, and aside from the home runs he leaves little for a major league team to have faith in. I am sure he will get some sort of late season call-up, but what I saw on Sunday did not inspire me.

Matt Wieters didn’t get a hit either, but he was far more mature in his approach to his at-bats than nearly anyone else on the team. He came into the game sporting a .358 average which was down to .352 by the end of the night but he worked every count near full and drew necessary walks, which were unfortunately followed up by a lineup that had gone suddenly cold on the warm Sunday evening game. Most spectacular however was Wieter’s defense, gunning down runners and apparently calling a beautiful game for Brad Bergesen. We won’t see Wieters in September, but we will see him on April 1st, 2009. Yes, he is as good as advertised.

Jonathan Tucker. No, I didn’t know who he was either. Not only did he go 2-3, but he scored on a sacrifice fly by making an acrobatic headfirst slide into home plate, narrowly avoiding a tag that for most other runners would have been applied easily. He is hitting .375 in his last 10 games, and aside from that I know he stood out to the fans as the only true offense the Baysox could rely on on a night when nothing else seemed to be going right at the plate.

Free Kicks back tomorrow!