Arizona Fall League Gives O's Fans Glimpse at the Future

This morning, in reading the box scores for the Arizona Fall League (a bye week for the Ravens will do that to you) a thought popped in my head. By mid-season next year, the Orioles could have the following position players: Matt Wieters (C), Brandon Snyder (1B), Josh Bell (3B), Nolan Reimold (LF), Adam Jones (CF), Nick Markakis (RF), and veterans Brian Roberts and Cesar Izturis in the middle infield. Add in Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen, and Brian Matusz into the starting rotation and this is a team well deserving of the oft-used “Baby Birds” moniker. I know that management has stated that both Snyder and Bell could use another year in the minors, given what transpired over the past season I would not be surprised at all to see either or both of them in the starting lineup in June. This of course will pose its challenges for manager Dave Trembley, but what else is new? Whatever you give the man, he will have to produce wins. After all, he is the one controlling the hitters and pitchers… or something like that.

Given the free agent pool out there, the kind that makes Russell Branyan seem like a decent investment, it is more than likely that whoever the Orioles put on the corners will struggle, be he Ty Wiggington or some other low cost veteran. This will push the battle at the corners into the season, and if the O’s stand mired 10 games below .500 in June, count on the Orioles to call up a couple young bats.

However, Bell and Snyder are giving management some reasons for optimism. Josh Bell has been on a tear from both sides of the plate (historically the switch hitter has struggled against lefties), going 12-20 in 5 games with the Phoenix Desert Dogs. He is hitting for power, as expected, but has put up good results against both righties and lefties. Of course, the sample size is small, but he will need to learn to hit better against southpaws if he is going to avoid matchup problems in the majors. This deficiency has been in his scouting report since he was a 2005 high school pick, and will always be there- but it would be good if the O’s can help him narrow this somewhat.

Brandon Snyder got hot late in Norfolk, but it couldn’t keep his average above .248 at the O’s Triple-A affiliate. He is finding his power in a smaller ballpark in Arizona, but he is going to need time to adjust to AAA pitching. Snyder has taken a long road through the minors, and apparently has improved his defense at both 1st and 3rd to make him more versatile for the Orioles- he began his minor league career as a catcher before a host of surgeries forced a move. Looking back, I am certain he’s glad not to be stuck behind Matt Wieters at this point in his career.

The foundation of this team will still be pinned on the development of Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen, Hernandez (wherever he ends up) and the not-yet-arrived Brandon Erbe’s and Jake Arrieta’s of the farm system. Pitching is how you win in the AL East or any other division. But if Snyder or Bell can become protection in the lineup for Nick Markakis, this team could solve one of their biggest problems from within, even if it might take a little longer than plucking a free agent bat out of the bargain bin.

Breaking News: Dave Trembley Will Return as Orioles Manager

Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun is reporting that Dave Trembley's 2010 option will be picked up, so Trembley will be returning as Orioles manager next year.

This had been a big topic of debate, especially with the Orioles September collapse. Andy MacPhail had said he was going to determine Trembley's job status soon, and his decision appears to be keeping him on-board.

I do not believe that Trembley should be the manager of the future for the O's, but for now I am fine with this call. The fact is the Orioles are not a competitive team, and it seemed like Trembley did the most with what he had as well as protecting the young players. The team likely could not have found anyone better than Trembley, so for now it is better to hold him here than get rid of him.

If nothing else, it is one less thing the Orioles have to worry about going into the offseason.

(Photo credit: AP)

Baltimore Sun Poll: What is the Worst Black Mark in Orioles History?

The Orioles finally snapped their losing streak with a 3-2 victory over Tampa Bay last night, ending the streak at 13 losses in a row. It is clearly one of the worst times in Orioles history. So the Baltimore Sun has an interesting poll up today, what is the worst black mark in Orioles history? The choices are in order in the poll:
--0-21 to start the 1988 season
--4-32 finish in 2002
--12 consecutive losing seasons
--13-game losing streak in 2009
--30-3 loss to the Rangers in 2007
--107 losses in 1988

So we have our options. Let's take a look at some of these, and I'll give my thoughts as to what I believe.

First, I am taking off two of them. First is the 30-3 loss to the Rangers in 2007. As bad as that was, that was one game. One bad game can never be as bad as losing multiple games. Also, that game was the first part of a doubleheader. It is certainly possible that if the Orioles did not need to conserve people in their bullpen the damage would have been a lot less, but the decision was made to wait. But regardless, it is one game. The second is this past losing streak. As bad as it was, keep a few things in mind. The Orioles were running with a depleted roster and were either on the road or against a playoff-contending team. So even though the losing streak was bad, the Orioles at best might have been 3-10 during that run.

That leads to a second point which amasses everything else. Nothing in one season can be worse than a number of seasons. As bad as 1988 was, as well as the terrible 2002 collapse, one season of bad play sometimes happens. Most franchises in history have something like that.

The answer is 12 losing seasons in a row. Keep in mind this is not just a playoff drought, these are losing seasons. Even when the Orioles were not making the playoffs in the mid-late 1980s and early 1990s, the team was at least putting together some winning seasons. Now the team has become completely irrelevant in the playoff race. Granted some franchises have been worse, but when a team that used to be a contending one for years now is the constant joke of the American League, that is by far the worst black mark in Orioles history. At the worst part about it is that it could get worse.

Bottom line, whatever happens in a game or one season is nothing compared to what happens in numerous seasons. The answer is clearly 12 losing seasons in a row.

(Photo credit: AP)

So, 13-Game Losing Streak......

It is never a good thing when the hometown football team has more wins in two weeks than the baseball team does. In fact the Ravens have two more: in the last 14 days before today, the Ravens are 2-0, the Orioles are 0-13. After it looked like the Orioles would be heading towards a 65+ win season, the team is now in dangerous position to lose 100 games. To avoid that perilous number, the Orioles would have to go 3-1 in their final four games, even though the roster is being held together with bubble gum and tape. They complete their series against Tampa Bay tonight then return home for the final series against Toronto.

The missing players on the roster: Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Felix Pie, possibly Luke Scott, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Kam Mickolio, Brad Bergeson, Bob McCrory, among others. George Sherrill, Aubrey Huff, Gregg Zaun, and Oscar Salazar had already been traded.

Personally the Orioles should be happy Dave Trembley is keeping his cool and trying to focus on his job despite constant pressure from fans and the 13-game losing streak. Andy MacPhail has said he will evaluate Trembley's job status at the end of the season, but it is hard to see if anyone could win with this team right now. Obviously losing 13 games straight, the longest since 2004, is a disaster, but no manager in the league could do much better right now.

It would be in the Orioles' best interests to play their best the rest of the way. The fan base was lost nearly all interest due to the losing and the Ravens huge start. And really, the only thing the O's have to play for is to avoid 100 losses. It is hard watching the team go out this way, but 12 years of losing seasons in a row, most of us are not surprised.

(Photo credit: AP)

Should Jim Johnson be the Orioles Future Closer?

It certainly has not been easy for the Orioles in September. Although they defeated the Yankees two games out of three in New York, the team has been forced to deplete some of the roster so they don't risk their future. Such players include Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Brian Matusz, and eventually Chris Tillman.

But for the O's, there is still work to be done. One decision that will need to be made is the future of Jim Johnson as Orioles closer.

Tuesday night, the Orioles had an all too familiar fall, leading Toronto 5-2 going into the 8th, allowing two in the 8th, one in the 9th, and one in the 11th to fall 6-5. For Jim Johnson, who blew the one-run lead in the 9th, his status as eventual closer may have to be evaluated. To his credit, in this outing he had the bases loaded and one out, getting out of it with two strikeouts, but he allowed four bases runners in a row, capped off by a hit-by-pitch to bring in the tying run.

Since taking over the closer's role in August after the George Sherrill trade, he has had nine save opportunities, converting only six. His ERA has gone up nearly a full point since taking over the closer role, and his stuff does not look the same since being the setup man, especially his fastball. Johnson had started out well, but recently has struggled at the position.

To his credit, Johnson is still the choice for closer for the remainder of the season. No one else in the bullpen is worth putting there, including Danys Baez and Cla Meredith, both of whom possibly might not be on the team next year. The Orioles will hope Chris Ray can have a good season year from Tommy John surgery, which is the normal recovery period needed for such a surgery, but as of right now he is not effective.

But Kam Mickolio could be another option. Currently he is on the DL and probably is shut down for the rest of the year due to shoulder inflammation, but before his injury he showed some promise. He has shown some closer-like stuff, including a powerful 98 MPH fastball. His walks are a little too high and he struggled in his last few outings, but the Orioles might want to try him out at closer during spring training.

The Orioles will likely not spend millions of dollars trying to buy a closer on the free agent market, so they will need to decide between Johnson, Ray, and Mickolio who will close next year in spring training. Johnson is a great setup man, but the O's have to be careful in using him as the closer.

(Photo credit: AP)

Free Kicks: Return to Glory, to Complaining, and to the Orioles Edition

Thanks to Falco for covering last week. No intro to think of, so let’s line up for the kick…

Miami is Back
I am going to go out and say it and take whatever flack comes my way if they drop their next two games (both against ranked opponents). Last season they allowed over 400 yards rushing to Georgia Tech, and yesterday they held them to under 100. Without the running game, Tech simply doesn’t have an offense. Randy Shannon had his team prepared, and put up 33 points on a stout Yellow Jackets defense. Granted, they had an extra week to prepare for this game, but this team just took down two ranked teams to start the season- no warm-ups against the College of Charleston or Towson U (sorry, I had to), they dove right into this year with something to prove and the toughest schedule in the nation. This is the first team I have watched in some time in the ACC that played like a great team. I have seen a lot of good and very good teams in this league, but what has held this conference down in the eyes of many is the lack of a marquee upper-echelon team. Well, years after being added to the ACC to bring that cache to the conference, Miami may finally be turning into just that. Forget the hot seat; if Shannon keeps this up he is looking at Coach of the Year.

…and so is the Grumbling in Columbus
Yes, Ohio State lost to USC on a last-second drive. And it may be true that Jim Tressel’s offense hasn’t perfectly suited his mobile quarterback. However, I have been amazed at the amount of criticism being heaped on the coaching staff from Buckeye fans who expect to beat Top 5 teams all the time. Ohio State may be 0-6 in their last 6 games against Top 5 ranked opponents, but that is why they are ranked in the Top 5- they are hard to beat! Please show me the team that has a winning record against top 5 ranked opponents (that has played more than a couple games against them). Look, Terrelle Pryor went to OSU because he wanted to be a pocket passer. Only he isn’t a pocket passer. Tressel is just trying to fulfill his end of the bargain he made to this kid, who for whatever reason isn’t realizing that he is part of the problem here. The coaching staff will have to go back to the drawing board and find better ways to utilize Pryor’s athleticism, but let’s not kid ourselves- USC was higher ranked and a better team, and they won by a small margin. Isn’t that the way it was supposed to go? Going after Tressel for being conservative is a bit premature, especially given the incredible success he has had at that institution.

Jim Johnson Needs to Prove He Can Close
I looked at the recent blog posts, and it has been weeks since we talked about the state of the Orioles, the team that dominates coverage from April-August before the football season sets in. Remember them? As management starts to shut down their young players as they count down the days to the end of the season (Matusz being shut down, Reimold resting for increasing stretches, etc.) and piecing together starts from their various long relievers, there are still interesting things to watch- most notably Jim Johnson’s performance as a closer. He has struggled, needing Matt Wieters to rescue him the other day from being the goat after giving up the game-tying home run in the top of the ninth. The team is insisting that it is mechanical issues that are keeping Johnson from remaining as dominant a closer as he was as a set-up man, but we have heard this tune too many times before this season. Rich Hill, Chris Ray, Matt Albers all just needed to “tweak” something here or there, and then continued to watch their ERA launch into orbit. Johnson, if you recall, struggled in his few appearances last season in closer situations as well. Every player will tell the press that it is just like any other inning and that they can handle the pressure- who wouldn’t say that? But it seems to me that Johnson is just hanging on, not taking over when he gets the ball in the ninth. He has the rest of the season to prove me wrong.

Prediction for the weekend:

A lot of people have called the reverse lock on the Bears-Steelers game, thinking that the Bears will suddenly come alive and shock the defending champs. Look, even without last week’s performance I would have picked the Steelers. Pittsburgh doesn’t win flashy, so analysts are perpetually picking against them- and paying for it. Pittsburgh takes this one easy, 24-10.

What Now for the Orioles?

This has not been a good start to the month for the Orioles to say the least. Not much seems to be going right. Other than the series win over the Rangers over the weekend, numerous events have left the Orioles in trouble:
--A series sweep to the Yankees at home, or at least in Baltimore.
--A two-game series sweep to Boston on the road, with the second game ending in yet another bullpen collapse.
--Adam Jones shut down for the year due to a severely sprained left ankle, the second straight year where an injury kept him out nearly a month.
--Kam Mickolio had to see a specialized doctor about a sore arm (reported by Peter Schmuck, Baltimore Sun)
--Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz will be shut down soon due to the front office deciding to limit their innings in their rookie year.

This month just got underway, and the Orioles still have a number of games left. It is perfectly reasonable to be careful with young players, but that will not comfort fans. Plus, the Orioles are now selling one-dollar tickets to get fans in the stands.

So what now? With many young players ending their seasons early, what will happen for the rest of the year? Really, there is not much left to do. We have seen from yesterday that Trembley will use numerous pitchers for short periods of time to take advantage of matchups, so he is trying to win games, as he should. Sure Wieters and the rest of the young birds can benefit from the time, but the vets who are playing already know what to do when the season gets down to the final days.

But these last few weeks will be about Dave Trembley. With all the talk about him at the end of the year, each game Andy MacPhail will analyze and determine if Trembley should return next season. Given the expanded roster he has, can he work his hardest to win games while still protecting his young players, all while keeping your cool if the Yankees, Red Sox and the rest beat you down? We have already seen Trembley and Juan Samuel call out their players on things a few weeks ago. With a number of games left against strong teams and a problematic roster, this could get ugly. But in this month, Trembley can be a manager of a team. He can call changes on the mound at will and do everything he can to win games as opposed to constantly having to look out for the young players.

I'm not sure if Dave Trembley is the manager of the future for the Orioles. I'm not sure who can be better at this point in time, but these last few weeks will determine if he has the skills needed to be a big league manager.

Jeff Fiorentino is Back, a Reminder of the Past

Remember Jeff Fiorentino? The guy the Orioles brought up directly from single-A Frederick in 2005, played sparingly for two years, and symbolized the problems with the front office bringing up people too quickly? Well after getting rid of him via waivers, bringing him back, and a full season this year in Norfolk, he is back on the Orioles via the expanded roster, according to the Baltimore Sun. Also joining the expanded roster will be relievers Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, and Alberto Castillo.

The Orioles will likely use all three of those relievers in September. The team has made it clear that they are going to be careful with the development of the young pitchers, especially Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz, so the O's will have a lot of innings to have pitched. This is especially important to Sarfate, who has not been active due to injury most of the year, and also Albers, who could still be a useful pitcher in the bullpen someday due to the fact he is only 26 and has at times been solid.

But Fiorentino's return is most interesting. It isn't even about Fiorentino. He has certainly done well this year with the Tides, hitting .312 with 12 home runs. At just 26 he could someday become a useful outfielder on the bench for the Orioles or someone else. But him returning reminds Oriole fans of the past. In the middle of the decade, the Orioles were constantly having problems in the farm system and rushing up too many people, causing problems in their development and ruining their chances. Fiorentino was having a great start in single-A Frederick, and the Orioles brought him up in May 2005 to the major league level. What happened is what many would expect, he did very little despite a .250 average, and was sent right back down. The most memorable moment was colliding with Sammy Sosa on a routine fly ball that Sosa was calling for, costing the Orioles a run instead of ending the inning. He only played 13 games that year, but it is not the way to develop prospects. The Orioles had rushed up players like Fiorentino and Daniel Cabrera in years past, and subsequently the farm system suffered. The Orioles were squandering their young talent.

Hopefully, the Orioles have moved on from that time. It looks like for now they have under Andy MacPhail. The return of Fiorentino is a reminder of the problematic past of the Orioles, and let's hope that it is a symbol that things are changing. Welcome back Jeff, and let's hope this trip to Charm City is better than the last time.

(Photo credit: Norfolk Tides)

Get Ready for a Long Month O's Fans

We have to hand it to the Orioles. Even though the rotation is starting four rookies and the team is trading away many a number of its veterans, the team at least appears as though they will avoid the dreaded 100+ loss season.

But this could be a terrible September for the team, and everything that has happened supports this theory.

A lot of veterans have been traded away. Aubrey Huff, George Sherrill, Gregg Zaun and Joey Gathright have been sent to other teams for minor leaguers. The rotation has now gone to four rookies, with the best rookie pitcher, Brad Bergeson, likely out for the rest of the year, which leaves the Orioles relying on kids that will not pitch more than six innings a game most likely. To give an idea on how important Bergeson was, he has seven wins, second on the team; no bad considering he has not been playing for one-third of the season. The current lineup doesn't have a bad average, but nearly no power. Sure Felix Pie and a few others are coming on, but problems with Adam Jones have lowered his production as of late. History has shown that the Orioles often have a late collapse in the final month of the season. And to boot, the Orioles upcoming schedule is full of playoff-contending teams, including two series against the Yankees, two versus the Red Sox, one faceoff against the Rangers, and two against the Rays.

So with all of that, the Orioles will need to hold on and bear through September. Obviously they will want to fight for fourth place and avoid being last place behind the Blue Jays a second straight year, and they will need to make up four games in the standings to have a chance at them. If nothing else, try to finish above the Washington Nationals. That would require a collapse of large magnitude, but the Orioles still don't want that to happen. Also, with football season coming up, the fan support for the O's will look grim. The Ravens are easily king in Baltimore, and with them trying to build on an AFC Championship appearance last season, the Orioles will lose a lot of support.

A couple of questions are still in need of answering. Dave Trembley will be the manager through the end of the season, but he is no doubt on the hot seat. He has taken the approach that the front office expects him. The Orioles primary concern for the rest of the season is not winning games; not that they will broadcast that, but it is the case. They need to work with developing the young rotation and the young hitters. The rotation, especially Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz due to their potential, need to keep developing, as they will be on the starting rotation on Opening Day next year. Matt Wieters, Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold all have shown good stuff in certain parts of the year, and will need to continue learning for the season. With very few veterans of the future on the squad, this gives the young team a great chance to learn from each other.

But make no mistake. This month is going to be very rough. A number of powerful teams are getting ready to take the Baby Birds on, and this could be a long September for Dave Trembley and the O's.

(Photo credit: AP)

Free Kicks: The Return (Edition)

Okay, so this ends the 3 week hiatus of free kicks, when I have been unable to post on Fridays due to work, vacation, etc. Today in fact I am off work as Windsor has come up to visit me in Michigan. Last weekend I was actually out in Las Vegas, losing my money and making me look forward to making it again at work. However, it was tons of fun.

Quick question: is the fact that the Orioles keep losing by such small margins a good sign or a bad sign? Is it a sign of progress or of an inability to close out games? Ask Jim Johnson, who may not be closer material but he will get his chances to prove himself before next season. Remember when he was going to be a starter? I still think he could/should be one, but if he is needed as a solid reliever, the Orioles should keep him there. Either way, with football season nearly upon us, let’s line up for the kick…

Brandon Marshall Suspended by Broncos
Can we stop talking about bringing him in now? I know Anita Marks is having chills over the idea of trading for the disgruntled wide receiver, but let’s reassess- so he has legal problems, anger problems, problems with his management, problems with his coaching staff, only 2 great seasons to judge him on (with a great quarterback throwing him the ball), and he is going to want a fat new contract. There aren’t many receivers in the league I would want on my team less. This guy is currently acting like a Terrell Owens without the reputation for production- and T.O. never in my memory flipped out over contract issues like Marshall has- though he hasn’t been anywhere long enough for that to happen.

Vick and Favre Make their Debuts
With a second NFL story in this week’s kicks, it is clear that football is starting to take over. Michael Vick did what he was supposed to, get comfortable under center and get in a few odd formations. I am almost glad he is suspended for the first six weeks, he is a long way from being in football shape and he will need his dynamic speed in order to become an impact player for the Eagles. He has shown a new work ethic and seems determined to make the most of his opportunity to remake his life. He grew up not even knowing that people actually cared about their dogs, and now he has the right support system to make a difference in the world. I cannot fathom what he did, but I don’t believe in destroying someone for life who seems poised to transform himself.

As for Favre, he made a fool out of himself and destroyed his reputation by coming back- who exactly is going to like him when he is finally done his career? He is joining the rival of his old team, so scratch any Packers fans who still liked him. He failed to get the Jets to the playoffs after a thrilling start, so arm injury or not New York fans will not be forgiving. Vikings fans will love him now but he still played them too many times for them to like him once he is gone- unless he brings them a ring. He won’t though, he is good but not that good anymore to get this team over the hump. The Vikings organization has destroyed their former 2nd round pick, Tavaris Jackson, by constantly pulling him in and out of the starting job from the very start of his career. They have shown no patience in handling him and may be devastating his psyche in the process. Good job trying to salvage him when Favre leaves- and trying to salvage the locker room.

Added bonus: From now on, every Free Kicks will include a prediction for the weekend, it can be about anything really, though preferably sports related. Here goes!

Prediction for the Weekend: The Orioles will take 2 out of the 3 remaining games with the Cleveland Indians, earning the split.

Samuel Unprofessional in Attacking his Players

So Dave Trembley and Juan Samuel know exactly who is to blame for the baserunning errors that have cost the Orioles countless runs and wins this season. The players. That’s fine, and it has seemingly been known throughout the fan base that Trembley, who does put an emphasis on the fundamentals, cannot be culpable for the boneheaded decisions that have troubled both veterans and rookies alike. We talked about this a bit in Exhibit B of Trembley on Trial last week, and I couldn’t really find Trembley all that responsible. The coaches are doing the best they can, and it can’t really be their fault that his players don’t know to run on a 3-2 count with 2 outs when they should have been doing that since little league. However, Juan Samuel’s recent comments about their players were beyond the pale and irresponsible on a team struggling to stay unified as it endures another painful late-season collapse. This team need to stay together, and ripping your team to the media is just childish and is an unusual move for a coaching staff so accustomed to speaking responsibly about their players.

A few comments of Samuel’s in particular rubbed me the wrong way. When discussing the baserunning errors, the Orioles 3rd base coach stated, “They are major league players, or at least we think some of them are. To me, some of them are not. Some of them to me have to be thankful that expansion came because some of them wouldn't be here.” Is that really the message you want to send your players? That they don’t deserve to be here and are only up in the majors because the team needs bodies? On a young losing team they need something positive from their coaches, an expression of confidence of some kind- barring that, they need their coaches to just shut up and deal with things behind closed doors. I think that those players like Felix Pie who are struggling with their confidence and their instincts would be much better served talking with the coaches than being sliced and diced in front of the media. How can Samuel expect this team to be taken seriously- to even be watched- when he admits they may not even deserve to be at this level? NFL coaches deal with it with the line “we are very happy with who we have.” Apparently Samuel didn’t want to look across the parking lot to see how Harbaugh handled it when he didn’t have Derrick Mason. Yes you want better players, but you don’t tell your players they don’t deserve to be at this level. He should know better than that.

But Samuel just kept burying his team. “That's why you see teams that are up here [in the standings] and teams that are down here, because they don't want to be accountable. It's always somebody else's [fault], and that's a problem.” He must not have been referring to Felix Pie, who took complete responsibility for two losses on this recent road trip. Pie, if nothing else, seems racked with guilt over his mistakes, which only hinders his ability to play loose later. Since the beginning of the season he has played like a man with a gun to his head, nervous, awkward and unable to relax enough to make smart decisions. He has no problem with accountability. Nor have I heard any player come out to the media and blame the coached for anything, at least not publicly. And even if they blame the coaches behind the scenes (which I strongly doubt), at least they aren’t trashing anyone publicly and dragging their character through the mud.

Trembley had a better rationale, discussing player development and the de-emphasis on baserunning in the minors in favor of flashy hitting. He still put the blame ultimately on the players, and who wouldn’t? They are on the field. But he and Samuel still drew a line in the sand between the coaches and the players, and targeted the same men they rely on to keep their job. If a player smears his coach to the media he is disrespectful and deserving of a fine or suspension. Coaches should be given more leeway, but this staff shouldn’t be going to the press to express their dislike for their players’ mistakes. These players have shown Trembley, Samuel, and the entire staff too much respect, patience, and understanding in the face of so much losing that perhaps they deserve a bit of the same from their coaches. They are on the same team… right?

[Quotes from Baltimore Sun]

Trembley On Trial

At the end of the season, Andy MacPhail will be the judge presiding over the fate of Dave Trembley, who is hoping to continue as manager of the Baltimore Orioles for at least another season. There have been a series of charges levied at Trembley this season, building steam for the upcoming verdict in the Fall. Here at ATH we have compiled the following list of accusations made against the Orioles skipper, and evaluated the evidence to see whether the ubiquitous “Fire Trembley” comments on neighboring blogs have any merit. The charge: Negligence and incompetence detrimental to the team. Here’s the evidence:

Exhibit A: He pulls his starters too early.
Not lately, since the bullpen is exhausted, but he has done this for much of the season, sometimes with disastrous results. Well, so does Jim Leyland. In fact, living in Michigan I have been able to see a lot of Leyland and his management style isn’t far off from Trembley- and I believe that Leyland is a fine manager overall. When to pull your starters is an issue, but a lot of it comes down to chance- some guys tend to keep their pitchers in there and they get shelled, others pull their starters and the relievers give it up. It depends on the composition of your team, and in the end I think it mostly balances out. At least Trembley’s way gives the starters a bit more rest, which will be important with a young staff. So yes, he might let the Red Sox come back in the 9th inning after building up a 5 run lead and your starter on cruise control before being yanked after 103 pitches, but I am not sure he can foresee the bullpen breaking down. I would say he is guilty of occasional poor judgment, but it’s hard to know for sure.

Exhibit B: His players show a tendency to turn singles into outs by trying in vain to get that extra base.
This has been really ugly. The Orioles get runners on and they run into outs, or hesitate at third when they need to go home, or just flat out don’t know how many outs there are to begin with. I cannot put a number on how many runs they have lost, and I shudder to think of how much closer to respectability this team might be without those mental lapses. Wasn’t Dave hired to bring strong fundamentals to this team? When he was brought on they talked about how only the Twins did the kind of fundamental drills that the Orioles were going to do under their new manager. We were told that he was going to win with smart baseball and a strong foundation. On that count, the opposite has been true. And it isn’t just the young players, either. Before he was traded, Aubrey Huff had gotten a penchant for thinking he was Carl Crawford, and Ty Wiggington was charging full steam into that double that just wasn’t going to happen. I wondered if they needed contacts to figure out that the ball was a lot closer to the bag than they thought it was. But what is Dave supposed to do? Emphasize it more? How do you practice that except in games? You aren’t supposed to see veteran players regress mentally- what does that say about the young players when they mature under Trembley’s leadership?

I honestly don’t know what to equate this to, and I am not sure it directly is connected to Trembley. But if not him, who else? The buck stops with Dave.

Exhibit C: This team is getting worse as the season has gone on, not better.
In fact, this might be the worst Orioles team in a long time right now, and that is saying something considering the teams we have seen over the last 12 years. Andy MacPhail said that he wanted to see improvement towards the end of the season- 8-24 since the All-Star break isn’t much of an improvement. But many of these games are close, ended by those boneheaded baserunning mistakes or a lack of clutch hitting (Melvin Mora is an inning-ending machine all by himself). The young pitching has been tough to watch to be sure, but shouldn’t these players be getting better? I mean, wasn’t Adam Eaton dropped for a reason, and Mark Hendrickson moved to the bullpen because there were better options? These are apparently it. While getting rid of George Sherrill was a huge blow, this team isn’t losing right now because of blown saves. While Aubrey Huff’s departure will hurt, he wasn’t exactly lighting it up and getting Luke Scott in the lineup more often might make this team better, not worse. However, this late-season swoon has happened like clockwork, so it may not matter who is managing this team, it just happens. But the right leadership keeps that from happening, the right leadership breaks losing patterns and creates a winner. This fanbase can’t just accept the swoon every year if they ever hope this team to be successful.

Closing Argument:
Dave Trembley is not a great manager. He looks like a manager, he talks like a manager, he acts like what people think a manager should act like. He has a presence that inspires confidence in a lot of fans and in his players as well, who have openly voiced their approval. There is other evidence against Trembley- his lack of playing experience, his lack of major league managerial experience, his losing record in the minors, and any number of other criticisms during his 2 ½ year stint here and before. But before we throw the man out, let’s ask ourselves, who will take over? There is no big-name manager who is willing to bank the next 3 years of his career on the potential of possibly winning while going up against the toughest division in baseball. No one the Orioles would want would be willing to do that. For all his faults, Trembley has shown a commitment to the franchise, and no one else is exactly waiting in the wings to take his spot.

Let’s also remember something about managers. They are not like head coaches in football, who can create new systems of play and wildly change a team, determining in many cases whether they fail or succeed (except Norv Turner, whose Chargers are a solid team despite him). Managers sort lineups, provide advice, decide who starts and sits, but at the end of the day baseball is baseball, and there is no wildcat or shotgun or spread offense to try out. You hit the ball and hope it drops, and cross the plate more times than the other guys. You could have any number of guys in as manager and maybe wins and losses will fluctuate by 5 or 10 but it won’t make a whole lot of difference. Managers are successful when they have good players and a good relationship with the team. Dave Trembley, for all of Melvin Mora’s grumbling, has a very good relationship with his players.

He’s not Tony LaRussa, Joe Torre, or even Lou Piniella, but he is worth another year. You’d be amazed the difference good players could make. Let’s see what he does when he has a decent team to work with.

Commitment to the Draft Can't be Overlooked

So it’s official, whether the front office is willing to admit it or not- the Orioles are in complete and utter free fall, earlier this year than most but seemingly inevitable. All we can hope for at this point is that the team doesn’t ruin its young pitchers by giving them such adversity and forcing them up a year before they should reasonably be in the starting rotation. We have seen it so many times before, but this time the stakes are higher. If Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and David Hernandez leave this season shell-shocked, bruised, and beaten down mentally or physically, the entire rebuilding project will be derailed and it may take years to pick up the pieces. For a fan base that has seen a dozen losing seasons (can we put this one in the books yet?), Baltimore fans can be pretty impatient. Asking them to wait another 3 years might not be so kind.

However, even as this team has a meltdown rivaling Greg Norman on Sunday, it has shown a commitment to the future- and I am not talking about 2010 or even 2011. Signing draft picks isn’t easy, but when the front office found a player they wanted they didn’t cave until they had him. Sure, some prospects got through unsigned, but bringing in 25 of your top 30 picks is extremely impressive. Moreover, the Orioles paid above the recommended salary slot for most of them, particularly in bringing in Mychal Givens, the hot-hitting shortstop from Florida who didn’t endear himself to the fan base with statements that amounted to “If they want me, they will do what it takes to get me.” Regardless, he is an Oriole now and for as long as he is under club control, he will have to enjoy it. The fact of the matter is that this team didn’t let pride get in the way of negotiations, and didn’t let a few hundred thousand dollars here or there get in the way of signing who they wanted to make this team better in the long run. The Orioles spent almost $8.8 million on the 29 draft picks they signed, and signed 9 of their top 10 draft picks (though correct me if I am wrong on the latter point). They paid generously for later rounder players like Michael Ohlman and Cameron Coffey, proof that this team is determined to build this team through the draft.

Much attention has been paid to Andy MacPhail and his trades, but not enough credit can go to Joe Jordan, the Orioles scouting director who was in charge of most of these negotiations. Jordan came to Baltimore not with MacPhail, but as a holdover from the Beattie administration after stints with the Marlins and Expos in various roles of player evaluation. I guess the old administration got something else right besides Nick Markakis.

Windsor insists to me that the O’s will be in contention next year (or at least over .500, though to me that would count). That may be true, though I am still thinking it might take another year for all the pieces to come together. However, whether this team will be in contention in 2013 or 2014 is decided on days like today, when this front office makes sure they hold onto the players they want for the future. Ignore the nightly shelling for a moment; today it is good to be an Orioles fan.

Aubrey Huff Traded to the Tigers

Looks like Andy MacPhail was not done after all. The Orioles dealt their first baseman, Aubrey Huff, to the Detroit Tigers for Brett Jacobson, a reliever in single-A.

Obviously this is another move for MacPhail's vision of the future. Huff had his struggles this year, hitting just .253 and hitting 13 home runs. Last year was one of his best seasons, as a MASN defining moment often reminds us, going .304 with 32 home runs and 108 RBI. At one in the season, it was expected that Huff could be a big mover at the trade deadline, but with his sudden dropoff, his value dropped with it.

I understand this move, though I did wish Huff could have finished out the season. With his departure, more and more the Orioles rest of the season looks like it will be real rough. Luke Scott looks like he'll be taking up first base for now. I'm not sure what the Orioles plan to do for the short term at the corner infield positions, and I hope MacPhail has an answer to that. If Mora is not returning next season, it would be very unlikely that Wigginton and Scott will reside at third and first respectively.

Brett Jacobson, a former Vanderbilt player, has done well in high-A ball for Detroit, pitching in 35 games with a 3.74 ERA and six saves. In 55.1 innings, he has 44 strikeouts to just 17 walks, though allowing six home runs is alarming. But, another prospect to add to the minors for the Orioles, which is important.

Good luck to you Aubrey Huff, and thank you for your performance here in Baltimore.

(Photo credit: Getty Images)

Midnight Draft Deadline Approaches

As the MLB world approaches for the midnight draft deadline, the Orioles will be trying to get some of their last couple picks signed and into the minors.

Not much is that hectic really for the Birds. Eight of the first 10 picks have already signed, including 1st rounder Matt Hobgood and 3rd rounder Tyler Townsend. The only two that have not signed are 2nd rounder Mychal Givens (offer withdrawn to him) and 8th rounder Devin Harris (is returning to ECU).

Among others the Orioles signed included Steven Bumbry from the 12th Round and Mike Flacco from the 31st Round.

But obviously what is happening down south may be more interesting. Whether or not 1st overall pick Stephen Strasburg will sign with the Nationals. The Nats offered him a record contract, and whatever it was (the offer is not public knowledge), Scott Boras rejected it.

The deadline doesn't bring much to the O's, but it is interesting what it might do to the Nats.

Hitting the Cycle? Easy as Pie

What a game by the Orioles. A 16-6 win over the LA Angels, beating down a formerly 12-3 Jared Weaver plus a lineup filled with batters hitting around .300.

The highlight of the night: Felix Pie hitting the 4th cycle in Orioles history, then getting a long-awaited but well-deserved shaving cream pie in the face. (Though it took two attempts; Adam Jones missed the first time. But Robert Andino got him the second time, and props to MASN's Amber Theoharis for keeping Pie focused on the camera the whole time.)

It has been a very rough road for Felix Pie in his career. Once a #1 prospect in the Cubs system, he struggled in Chicago, then had his issues here in Baltimore despite getting his chance as the primary left fielder. But even as Nolan Reimold was playing well, Pie did not complain or whine to the media about playing time, instead he kept working and trying to get better. And in time, Pie not only has improved his average from around the Mendoza line to .254 now, but he has also become a very useful bench player, often substituting in for defense and pinch running on occasion. And the obvious cap off came today, hitting the cycle, becoming the fourth player to do that in Orioles history (the others were Brooks Robinson, Cal Ripken, and Aubrey Huff). It has not been the year we expected from Pie, but it certainly has been a productive one.

Chances are he will not be on the 25-man active roster to start next season, but I'm hoping that he can return and be in the minors so he can really get his talent maximized the correct way. He is only 24 and will get better. But for today, it is Felix Pie's day, congratulations to him for his performance tonight.

(Photo credit: AP)

If Guthrie Fails, The Orioles Fail

Jeremy Guthrie's struggles continued last night, giving up five runs on 11 hits in 4.2 innings in the Orioles 9-1 loss to the Athletics. On the season he is 7-12 with a 5.43 ERA on the season. He has now given up 81 earned runs in his 23 starts; to compare last year he had 76 earned runs allowed in a total of 30 starts.

This start was disastrous for Guthrie. His fastball did not move at all plus his curveball did not break much and was an easy target for the hitters looking for singles. As Jim Palmer said on the MASN broadcast, Guthrie does not have a knockout pitch like last year, which allows hitter to constantly foul off pitches to raise the pitch count and work Guthrie for hits.

What's worse, Guthrie just cannot seem to be good with Matt Wieters right now. He was solid with Gregg Zaun, but Zaun is no longer here, so Guthrie has to adapt to Wieters. The fact that Guthrie does better with a veteran is a pattern; he did very well with Ramon Hernandez last season and kept it with Zaun, but the Orioles have business to do with the future of Wieters, so these two need to start playing well together.

For the Orioles sake if they want to end this terrible stretch and at least play well in the rest of the season, they need Guthrie to do better. Even though Brad Bergeson returning should help, the fact is right now the Orioles are relying on four rookie pitchers in the starting rotation at any time with a rookie catcher. Not to mention this team is extremely young. It is almost a given that with the rookie rotation might of Hernandez, Berken, Matusz and Tillman, the Orioles will be fortunate to get 22 innings combined from their four starts, which tires out the bullpen very quickly. When Bergeson returns from the DL and replaces Berken, this can help matters, but that will still leave four reliable pitchers in the rotation.

The only reason I point out Guthrie is that he has been solid the previous two years and was supposed to be the Orioles ace. If he cannot, then the bullpen will never see enough rest. Maybe it is not terribly important the Orioles are not winning, but this has to be bothering the Orioles and the fans. The worst thing is, there probably is not an answer for this problem.

Except possibly next year. Or the Ravens on Thursday.

(Photo credit: AP)

Anyone Want an Overpaid Veteran?

Andy MacPhail and the Orioles may not be done dealing players. According to the Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, and Danys Baez have all cleared waivers, but no one has claimed them.

Times are tough for the Orioles. They have not won a series since before the All-Star Break, and now are relying on four or five rookie starters to carry them through the rest of the season. Not to mention that the team is looking like it is going through the inevitable late season collapse that seems to happen each year. And that the Nationals have won seven in a row, which can't be good for Orioles fans to think about.

For the Orioles, they should better hope they will get something for these three. The only person of the trio that has any chance of being an Oriole next year is Huff, and that would require re-signing. Mora and Baez have next to no chance of being on the team next year, but the reality is probably all three will be gone after the 2009 season.

But do the Orioles realistically think they can get anyone for these three? Obviously there is no harm putting them through waivers, but it would be amazing if the Orioles got prospects for them. The trades that were offered to them before the deadline were not good enough for the Orioles to take. Huff had a terrible July, and even though he is doing better in August, he still has not regained his power, with just 12 home runs this year. Mora's only value to an opposing team is his great defense at third base, which teams do not go after in a playoff race. And despite that Baez has decent numbers, he has three losses in the past five appearances and is not worth his price tag.

But, MacPhail is trying to make moves with players that will not be on the roster. Hopefully for the Orioles, one of the above can get dealt for a prospect. Even if it is for a rookie level player that is hitting .190. But, likely the O's will not get anything for these guys.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Gregg Zaun Should Not Have Been Traded

The Orioles have a lot of rebuilding to do before they reach the playoffs. And obviously, players that are not part of the future of the club can be traded for prospects for the future. But some players bring a lot more value that what the stat sheet shows. And Gregg Zaun was one of those players.

This is not going to be a "Fire MacPhail" post or something accusing him of not knowing what he is going. I am a big believer in his quest to make the Orioles better. However, I do not agree with this move at all, as it is a demoralizer to the team and its fans.

Today, the Orioles traded Gregg Zaun, the backup catcher, to the Rays for a player to be named later or cash, according to the Baltimore Sun. To replace him, Chad Moeller is being brought back to the club from Norfolk and will backup Matt Wieters.

Zaun's stats are not overly impressive. In 56 games he is hitting .244 with four home runs and 13 RBI. At 38, he obviously is not part of the future. His contract had an option for 2010, and was making $1.5 million this season.

But his value went far beyond the box scores. Zaun was a veteran presence in the locker room. A catcher who had seen many years in this league and is hoping to be a coach one day. He calls a great game behind the plate. He has never complained about Matt Wieters taking his spot, and he has done many things to help the team get better and improve morale, from winning the Orioles Cook-Off to helping tutor Matt Wieters to learning some Japanese to help Koji Uehara on the mound. Not to mention it seems like Jeremy Guthrie is a much better pitcher with Zaun behind the plate. You can't put a price on someone like that.

He is a backup catcher, are the Orioles in such bad shape that they can't spend a little money to keep Zaun? Instead they have to trade him to a division rival for either a couple bucks or a minor leaguer with little potential? Then promote Chad Moeller, who is hitting barely over the Mendoza line in triple-A ball? Moeller was is not good at the plate, and when he was in Baltimore he was not a good signal caller, so he will not bring the mentoring that Zaun could.

The focus of the Orioles under MacPhail is to repair the minor league system and get the Orioles ready for the future. But, they still need to put a major league team on the field right now, and the one thing the front office is not doing well is trying to keep the morale of the team and its fans up. Players that are not a part of the future no matter how useful right now are being shipped away. Players like Kevin Millar and Gregg Zaun, who fully embrace their positions as backups and cheap players while still being great people in the clubhouse, are sent away for nothing. Sure Zaun is not part of the future, but isn't spending a little money for him worth it to the current squad?

Yes, the Orioles need to focus on the future. But not focusing on the present has its consequences too. We will miss you Gregg Zaun, and we wish you well in the rest of your playing days and future coaching career.

(Photo credit: ESPN)

Free Kicks: The Fan's Late-Season Swoon Survival Guide (Edition)

This team is an astonishingly bad 6-15 since the All-Star Break, and they are losing all types of games. Pitching duels, blowouts, late-inning collapses, etc. Peter Schmuck had a wonderful piece on his blog (and you know how critical I am of him lately) that was quite passionate about fans criticizing this team for its record and the free-fall that is happening all too early this season. I know most of these games have been against the Red Sox, Yankees, and AL Central-leading Tigers, but 6-15 speaks for itself. I won’t argue whether this team is in complete late-season disintegration mode; it would be a wasteful exercise that will be borne out by the record anyway. What I will do is provide some tips I have learned to avoid the malaise that occurs when the team is 25 games under .500 and 4 months of losing starts to get to you. Let’s line up for the kick…

Follow the Young Guns
Take a bit of joy in zoning out for Melvin Mora’s at-bat and pay close attention to Nolan Reimold’s and Matt Wieters’ at-bats. Break it down, from how they handle that slider to how hard they run to first. Since one-at-bat rarely matters in the grand scheme of a player’s development, it will be easy to shrug it off if they pop out or strike out, but you can take a great deal of joy in the small victory when they get on base. Same with the pitchers, and there will be an abundance of opportunities for this in the last month and a half- chalk up a 3 inning, 6 earned runs performance to jitters or playing in a new ballpark or adjusting to major league hitters while proclaiming a quality start to be the turning point for next year’s Cy Young candidacy. It may be disingenuous, but rose-colored glasses and selective attention can really make watching a losing team a lot easier.

Blame the Veterans
They won’t be around for the O’s turnaround, so who cares about them? Blame the loss on Wiggington’s boneheaded attempt at a double, or complain about how overpaid Danys Baez is when he gives up the go-ahead run in the 8th. To O’s fans, the team we care about is the team in 2010 or 2011- if the player isn’t going to be on that team, it makes it a lot easier to not be emotionally invested in their success. Does that loss really count if you can blame it on the gus who won’t be here? That’s up to you.

Minor League Successes
The Delmarva Shorebirds, Norfolk Tides, and Bowie Baysox are all in a playoff hunt in their respective leagues. Sure most of the talented players who started with Bowie or Norfolk are gone now, but there is never a bad time to root for a winning team. Head over to one of their stadiums to get the feel for what a pennant hunt feels like- the atmosphere can truly be incredibly exciting as you watch the O’s of tomorrow try to win one at the minor league level. Plus, it’ll prepare you as a fan for when the major league club is making a run in a year or two.

There is Always Football Season
Yes, it was bound to come up eventually. The presence of football season in August (and seemingly year round) can come as a respite to the beleaguered fan who has just had enough of watching Jeremy Guthrie give up a 3 run shot or watching Aubrey Huff ground slowly into an inning-ending double play. That isn’t to say it’s a cop-out, there are plenty of great stories going on at training camp- the development of Joe Flacco, the dearth of wide receivers (what need is bigger: the O’s for a quality starter or the Ravens for a quality receiver?), the reinvention of the defense, etc. Walking away from the O’s in September may not be classy, but for personal sanity it may be a fan’s last option.