If Guthrie Fails, The Orioles Fail

Jeremy Guthrie's struggles continued last night, giving up five runs on 11 hits in 4.2 innings in the Orioles 9-1 loss to the Athletics. On the season he is 7-12 with a 5.43 ERA on the season. He has now given up 81 earned runs in his 23 starts; to compare last year he had 76 earned runs allowed in a total of 30 starts.

This start was disastrous for Guthrie. His fastball did not move at all plus his curveball did not break much and was an easy target for the hitters looking for singles. As Jim Palmer said on the MASN broadcast, Guthrie does not have a knockout pitch like last year, which allows hitter to constantly foul off pitches to raise the pitch count and work Guthrie for hits.

What's worse, Guthrie just cannot seem to be good with Matt Wieters right now. He was solid with Gregg Zaun, but Zaun is no longer here, so Guthrie has to adapt to Wieters. The fact that Guthrie does better with a veteran is a pattern; he did very well with Ramon Hernandez last season and kept it with Zaun, but the Orioles have business to do with the future of Wieters, so these two need to start playing well together.

For the Orioles sake if they want to end this terrible stretch and at least play well in the rest of the season, they need Guthrie to do better. Even though Brad Bergeson returning should help, the fact is right now the Orioles are relying on four rookie pitchers in the starting rotation at any time with a rookie catcher. Not to mention this team is extremely young. It is almost a given that with the rookie rotation might of Hernandez, Berken, Matusz and Tillman, the Orioles will be fortunate to get 22 innings combined from their four starts, which tires out the bullpen very quickly. When Bergeson returns from the DL and replaces Berken, this can help matters, but that will still leave four reliable pitchers in the rotation.

The only reason I point out Guthrie is that he has been solid the previous two years and was supposed to be the Orioles ace. If he cannot, then the bullpen will never see enough rest. Maybe it is not terribly important the Orioles are not winning, but this has to be bothering the Orioles and the fans. The worst thing is, there probably is not an answer for this problem.

Except possibly next year. Or the Ravens on Thursday.

(Photo credit: AP)

Orioles Mid-Season Review

Well, we're at that time. The second half of the season is about to begin now that the All-Star game has come and gone (by the way, many congrats to Adam Jones for his go-ahead sac fly in the 8th inning), so before we move onward let's take a look back.

The first half of the season for the Orioles was marked by a confusing blend of stellar comebacks and inexplicable collapses, of youthful surprises and disappointments. Without a doubt the high point of the season thus far has to be the miraculous comeback against the Boston Red Sox, and the low point-- well, there are a few too many options for that one. Regardless, let's take a look at some of my team awards for the first half (and we'll throw in Expatriate and Falco's opinions for the heck of it).

MVP: Brad Bergesen (unanimous) - Without Brad Bergesen, this pitching rotation would have absolutely no stability. Bergesen didn't even start the season in the rotation, and despite the fact that his raw 'stuff' isn't dominant, he has the poise and guile of a veteran when he's on the mound. Unlike other rookies, Brad Bergesen knows how to make adjustments and because of that he's been able to rebound strongly from an early shaky stretch to become more and more dominant as the season's progressed. I thought last year that folks were underestimating Brad Bergesen when I wrote up my Prospect Report on him, but even I didn't see this coming.

LVP: Adam Eaton (Expatriate: Jeremy Guthrie, Falco: Rich Hill) - I don't see how this could be anyone but Adam Eaton. Adam Eaton only had one start that could be qualified as anything better than mediocre. Adam Eaton consistently put the Orioles in early deficits, destroyed the bullpen, and helped cement the Orioles position in last place very early on. Adam Eaton contributed nothing positive to this team, and so he was unequivocally the least valuable.

Rookie of the Year: Brad Bergesen (unanimous) - See above analysis on Brad Bergesen, nothing more needs to be said. Though I do give a quick shout to Nolan Reimold, who in almost any other year would be the deserving ROY for this team.

Gold Glover: Nick Markakis (Expatriate: Adam Jones, Falco: Nick Markakis) - While Nick Markakis doesn't always have the highlight reel catches, there is no greater model of consistency in right field that I can think of. Markakis very rarely takes bad routes to the ball as he reads them exceptionally well off the bat. Add onto that his ability to gun down runners (always at or near the top of MLB in assists), and he's the deserving gold glover. Not that he'll ever win one, because after all he's an Oriole. A quick mention though, that Robert Andino's play at short really has been fun to watch. I've been exceptionally impressed with his defense, though the award still easily goes to Markakis over Andino.

Most Surprising Player: Nolan Reimold (Expatriate: Oscar Salazar, Falco: Nolan Reimold) - Last year I did a Prospect Report on Nolan Reimold and I had the opportunity to watch him several times in person. His advancement from last year to this year has been one of the most astonishing transformations I've seen. His plate discipline has been exemplary, and while he's been slumping as of late, his ability to make adjustments is much improved. Nolan Reimold has come out and taken hold of the left field job, something that was doubtful at the start of the year. He's an emerging contender for ROY.

Most Disappointing Player: Jeremy Guthrie (unanimous) - Jeremy Guthrie was supposed to be, and needs to be, the ace on this team. He filled that role exceptionally well last year and his consistency indicated that he would do the same. Well, Guthrie is still scuffling along and it's still up in the air as to whether he'll get it back. He's been burned on some good pitches and he still has good stuff; we'll see how it plays out in the second half, but no doubt this is the one rotation struggle that O's fans didn't see coming.

Big Second Half: Nick Markakis (Falco and Expatriate: Aubrey Huff) - I'm bucking the trend of my colleagues here, but I have a strong feeling that Markakis will take off in the late summer, just as he has the past two years. Huff is a good bet, as he is a strong second half player. But just call it a hunch.

Drop Off in the Second Half: Luke Scott (Expatriate: Brad Bergesen, Falco: Luke Scott) - I love Luke Scott, but he is traditionally very streaky and I doubt that he can keep up this unreal pace. I understand the doubts about Brad Bergesen, but his ability to make adjustments and his positive momentum tells me he won't fall off all that much.

Grade for Dave Trembley: B (Expatriate: B-, Falco: B+) -He's kept this team together and he's managed the lineup as well as can be expected. His handling of young pitchers has also been superb, as shown by their successes this year. The only drawback is the continuing baserunning blunders which really comes back to the manager's responsibility.

Can Anything Be Done About the Rotation?

What we all believed would be the problem with the Orioles in the beginning of the season has come front and center. The starting rotation has been very bad lately, and there is no solution in sight.

Here is what the Opening Day rotation was, and where they are now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: still a starter, 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA (6.86 on the road)
--Koji Uehara: has not been bad when healthy, but often could not go longer than 6 innings a game and is always hurt
--Alfredo Simon: needed elbow surgery after two bad starts, out for the year
--Mark Hendrickson: relegated to the bullpen after many bad outings, but has become a decent long reliever
--Adam Eaton: released after posting an 8.56 ERA in eight starts, now playing for Colorado Springs Sky Sox, Rockies Triple-A club

And the rotation now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA
--Brad Bergesen: a solid starter this season, 5-2 record with a 3.53 ERA, 4-0 in last eight starts
--Rich Hill: mostly bad outings with a few exceptions, 3-2 record with a 7.43 ERA, only twice going over 5.2 innings
--Jason Berken: may not be ready, 1-5 record with 6.25 ERA
--David Hernandez: only five starts but ok right now, 2-2 record with 4.15 ERA

It is no doubt that the rotation has been real problematic. Without Bergesen and solid work from the bullpen, the whole pitching staff could be lost. Certainly it was thought the rotation would struggle, but the difficulties with Guthrie and Uehara made things much worse.

But can anything really be done about it right now? As we often tell ourselves, the Orioles are not in contention right now. Not matter what deals can be done, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays will likely be better. Signing a number of free agents likely will not help matters plus will cost millions of dollars. Trading also won't work, as you will not get anyone good and ready to go without giving up one of the big three, which is not an option, and Andy MacPhail will not do that.

The Orioles can keep tapping into Norfolk all they want, and that is what they will do. Already from the Tides came Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Radhames Liz, and Alberto Castillo from the pitching end plus Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Lou Montanez, and Oscar Salazar in the lineup. The Tides pitching staff has been real helpful to the Orioles, and they still have some people left, but eventually the Birds will need to stop bringing people up, if only because they will run out of them. Left that could help now are David Pauley and Chris Waters, but after that, the rotation will need to function on their own.

This whole situation is difficult for the Orioles, but it is one they will need to get through. Mainly because nothing really can be done about it unless the current pitchers can do better. Let's hope they do.

(Photo credit: AP)

O's Sweep World Champs, Have Won Five Straight

Jeremy Guthrie is struggling. Brian Roberts isn't showing enough energy. The starting pitchers are not lasting. They are playing with a backup shortstop. This team has no power. Get a lead against them into the ninth, and Baltimore has no chance.

Despite all of these criticisms the Orioles seem to be getting by outside sources, the Birds are responding with victories, winning five straight including sweeping the World Champion Phillies as two come-from-behind wins in the ninth inning after having zero such games before Thursday.

Of these five wins, only one was by more than two runs. The bullpen was stellar for the most part, with pitchers from Mark Hendrickson to George Sherrill doing very well. The bats are coming alive with more home runs and key hits from leaders Brian Roberts and Aubrey Huff. Interleague play has been good to the Orioles, who have a 9-3 record against National League teams this year, the best in the AL East. Some strange things have been happening. Robert Andino has been playing very well in place of the injured Cesar Izturis both offensively and defensively. Gregg Zaun hit a home run in the comeback win against the Angels. Guthrie finally had a big start. And finally, people other than Luke Scott and Nolan Reimold hit home runs.

Even though the Orioles are still in last place in the division, this five-game win streak is important in other ways. Not just for the morale of the team, but also for possible trade deadline deals. Names that have been thrown around include Aubrey Huff, Danys Baez, Melvin Mora, among others. Andy MacPhail has stated that there will not be any salary dumping, so if any trades go down, it will be because they get prospects in a good deal. But the cornerstones of the franchise and the potential young guns will still be here.

For now, the Orioles should enjoy the winning. The Orioles have two series left in interleague play, at Florida and the second round of the Battle of the Beltway with the Nationals.

(Photo credit: AP)

Despite Losing, Still a Lot of Reasons to Watch Orioles

Okay, so the Orioles have lost 11 of their last 14 games, and their starting pitching ERA is approaching Texas Rangers territory, and today the Baltimore Sun is featuring an article about the grand ineptitude of the 7-9 batters, who are combining to hit a whopping .189 (only Cesar Izturis is breaking the Mendoza Line at .242). And yes, the future doesn’t look bright for a team that usually doesn’t swoon like this until August, and in a division in which suddenly the Blue Jays are challenging the top of the AL East, joining the Sox, Yankees, and even Rays (they will come around) in the most loaded division in baseball. For many fans this seems like a time to curl up and hibernate until 2010, to perhaps tune in eagerly for Matt Wieters’ call-up or whenever another of the young guns is forced into a starting role but otherwise not pay much attention to the struggles of their hometown ballclub. However, there is a lot more to this team than preparing for the next season, and it does the players a disservice who don’t have the option of packing it in and waiting for next year- the 2009 season is far from over, and Baltimore fans should be happy for it.

The phenomenon that is Koji Uehara has been a roller coaster ride that deserves attention even as he settles into the majors. The first Japanese Oriole, after winning his first two starts (despite allowing 7 runs in 5 innings in his second outing), seems to have found the middle ground in his last three starts, allowing an average of about 2 runs per start in 6 or 7 innings- which I will take any day of the week. This guy’s composure on the mound has been incredible considering the competition he is facing and the new atmosphere he is in- and it isn’t as though the lineups he has been facing are cupcakes either. He has had to face the Rangers’ bats twice, and the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels each once. The fact that he has maintained a 4.50 ERA through this stretch is extremely impressive to me, and as Jeremy Guthrie scuffles to start the season Koji is quickly developing into one of the more reliable O’s starting pitchers. I am eager to see how he continues along the rest of the season, especially after bruising his sternum on a line drive against the Angels- many pitchers get nervous on the mound after a hit like that.

Windsor and I were talking yesterday about the Felix Pie experiment and how long it ought to continue. I loved the trade for Pie, but I also loved the way Lou Montanez played last year and his work ethic to improve his defense over the offseason. As Reimold also continues to dominate the minors (he hit another home run for the Tides yesterday to bring his season total to 7 and his average to .408). It is odd that these two players should get so hot, as Pie was thought to have struggled in Chicago because he was never given time to work out his issues day-to-day and had trouble handling sitting on the bench for a few games at a time. Pie may find himself in the same situation of Montanez and Reimold continue to impress. Now Montanez is only 3-18 since his call-up, but that is unlikely to continue for a player who has recently buried minor league pitching and performed admirably last season in his call-up. Who will take left field in the long run? Montanez may be reaching his peak soon but Reimold is only 25 years old…

There are so many question marks on this team, how they will be answered is a great reason to watch. However, in the end people watch for the wins, which may be few and far between this season. But luckily to an O’s fan that doesn’t make them any less sweet. When a team charges into Camden Yards and expects to pound Baltimore into submission, they will see something unexpected. This team has not packed it in, they have not wasted at-bats late in games when the outcome was all but decided. And when they do pull off that miraculous upset, when the opposing squad stands in dumb silence aghast at how they could lose, the feeling of victory is so much greater than when the team is expected to win. Sure, in a few years the Orioles could be a strong team, and I would prefer this squad to be the dominant power in the division. In the meantime though, I will take my wins where I can get them and my losses with a shrug.

Rotation Issues Already Forming in Baltimore

It has been a great start for the Birds, winning their first three series, considering the bullpen and rotation issues. However, the Orioles were hoping the "stopgap rotation" would hold a little longer than this, but the injury to Alfredo Simon has already forced the O's to dip into the Tides for some help. While Simon has not yet gone to the DL, recent moves make it seem that he'll be out a little while.

According to the Baltimore Sun and MASN, the Orioles have bringing up Matt Albers and Radhames Liz after Melvin Mora was sent to the DL and Simon will have his shoulder checked. It would not be surprising if Brad Bergeson was brought up as well from the Tides. Bergeson has done a great job in his first two contests in Norfolk, striking out nine and just allowing three earned in 11 innings, but these are his only two starts in triple-A play, and there is no telling if he'll be ready to come up to Baltimore.

We all expected the Orioles rotation to be an issue this season. Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara were seen as the only reliable starters, so the rest of the rotation was up for grabs, which was won by Simon and Mark Hendrickson with Adam Eaton filling the last spot when needed. The Orioles, though feeling it would eventually happen, were hoping to avoid using Norfolk players to fill gaps already. The bullpen has been very scary to the O's, but they have at least been able to hold large leads. The starters have done a good job for now, especially Guthrie.

The overall key to all of this is to protect the potential stars of the rotation. Under no circumstances can the Orioles bring up Chris Tillman because they need to wait until he is ready, and since he is not on the 40-man roster this probably will not be an issue. Players like Bergeson, Liz, Chris Waters, and David Hernandez could be called up sometime this season as stopgaps. This is just the beginning of the season and the Orioles can't risk their big players just because of a nice start. First they need to ready their big pitchers and Matt Wieters. They'll compete as best they can, but don't get too excited about the start. The might of this rotation is about to be tested. But for now and for all the issues, the O's have won their first three series.

(Photo credit: AP)

Orioles Win Series Against Yankees, Looking For a Sweep

The Orioles have started their season off well, winning their first two games of the season against the hated New York Yankees at sit in first place in the AL East. Now they look to sweep the Evil Empire tomorrow night. Yes we all know this is only two games out of 162, but Baltimore sure is happy tonight. They have the chance to win their first three games for the first time in over a decade.

The two Baltimore starters, Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara, both earned wins. Each game involved a destruction of the Yankee starter, either C.C Sabathia or Chien-Ming Wang. Neither lasted more than 4.1 innings and neither notched a strikeout. The O's bullpen has had its shaky moments, but in the end they have at least held to win each game.

But this team seems to have developed some character and an image. Some were wondering if the departure of Kevin Millar and the depression of last season would hurt the clubhouse. But this team seems to be having a good time. From Gregg Zaun learning some Japanese to help Uehara to Adam Jones smiling in the outfield to a strange Aubrey Huff catch, to Dave Trembley working well with the team, this team seems to be enjoying themselves and not being afraid of their opponents. This could be because of the winning, but it is a nice sight to see considering last season. The fans are also getting more into the game. Despite that it was clear a Yankees contingent was in Camden Yards, the park was clearly in the hands of the Orioles fans. The constant booing attack on Mark Teixeira has clearly bothered him during this series. All in all, this has the look of a different Orioles team.

But make no mistake, this season has just started. Guthrie and Uehara are Baltimore's most reliable starters, and the O's don't have anyone else that is proven in the long term. Starters like Alfredo Simon and Mark Hendrickson will need to be ready. The bullpen has held on in the end in both games, but if the back of the rotation does not hold up, then the bullpen will fall with it. The Orioles look good to start, let's hope they can continue the success.

Tomorrow Alfredo Simon gets the call against A.J. Burnett as the O's go for the sweep.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Opening Day!

It is Opening Day in BirdLand and the Yankees are in town. It is great to see the men in orange and black on the field once again.

Jeremy Guthrie has the start against C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixiera, and the Yankees at Camden Yards. The new Orioles that will play today include Ty Wigginton and Cezar Isturis. It is not a very nice day, with the constant threat of rain, but we will have the first game.

So, for all of us at Around the Harbor, let's go O's! Cue the Orioles Magic!

Jeremy Guthrie Named Opening Day Starter For Orioles

The Orioles have named Jeremy Guthrie the Opening Day starter according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. He did this last year and will faceoff against C.C. Sabathia when they host the Yankees on April 6th.

Guthrie has spent most of his spring training with the U.S. WBC team, but he barely pitched at all. Now back in uniform with the Orioles he has struggled getting into his groove. Koji Uehara was thought to be the best pitcher so far in spring training, but the Orioles will stick with their ace Guthrie and start him Opening Day.

With so many questions about the Orioles rotation, Guthrie will need to be back to form. The fact is this rotation has a lot of arms but nobody standing out that will be in the rotation. The O's don't want to throw their top three pitching prospects into the fire yet, them being Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta, but in order to ensure that the Orioles don't bring them up yet, they need their stopgaps to perform. Having a solid ace will easily help matters. A lot of support will be needed from Guthrie and Uehara in order to lead the rotation successfully.

(Photo credit: AP)

Orioles come up short, continue to get disrespected

So the Orioles lose their first series against the return of Cito Gaston.

Remember Cito? The AL All-Star manager who wouldn't pitch Orioles ace Mike Mussina in the 1993 All-Star Game in Camden Yards? I have a feeling a lot of fans, including myself, will never forgive him for that. Granted, he didn't pitch his own ace Pat Hentgen, but the game is in Baltimore, let the hometown hero pitch. Can you imagine Mariano Rivera not pitching in this year's All-Star Game?

This series is hurting a number of fans in many ways. Two one-run losses, both of which could have been different had a few more plays or calls gone their way. But, the fact is they didn't, and the Orioles couldn't overcome it. The Orioles now have a losing record at 44-45 after losing four straight. We should at least be happy that Roy Halladay was scratched from tonight's game, and instead the Birds will take on former Oriole John Parrish. Parrish is pitching in his second start, and he'll go against Jeremy Guthrie, who's looking for his 6th win.

Last night, I was watching "The Best Damn Sports Show Period" on Comcast SportsNet, and they were running down the All-Time All-Star Team. For example, Johnny Bench at catcher, Lou Gehrig playing first base, Hank Aaron playing right field, etc. They had experts Harold Reynolds, Ken Rosenthal, and Rollie Fingers on, a solid crew to analyze this. Apparently, the team itself wasn't chosen by them. I'm not sure who chose the team, but I'm guessing it was by fans. The shortstop chosen: Alex Rodriguez.

So, apparently you can put a third baseman at shortstop. Rodriguez has spent 1/3 of his games at third base. He was a great shortstop, but he moved positions. One of two players should have been chosen: Cal Ripken (who all three analysts agreed it should be) or Ozzie Smith. It is bad enough that people and the media love to salivate over Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees in general, but this is ridiculous. Why was he even considered at shortstop? Completely passing over two Hall of Fame shortstops to put in a player who probably will spend more days at third base than at shortstop is absurd. For a stats argument, Cal Ripken has 19 All-Star Games to Rodriguez's 12 (five of them at third base). As a player, Rodriguez will go to the Hall of Fame, and will be one of the best ever players, but the fact is that at this point in time, you can't put him as the greatest shortstop ever when he isn't playing there. Let's put Mike Piazza at first base or Babe Ruth at pitcher while we are at it. Someday Rodriguez may get on this team, but for now, put someone on who is more deserving. I prefer Cal Ripken, but Ozzie Smith would have been fine too.

I'll have more All-Star Game grief later when the break comes.

(Photo credit: Mario Grech, Baseball World (Mussina), Tom Jones (Ripken))