Can Anything Be Done About the Rotation?

What we all believed would be the problem with the Orioles in the beginning of the season has come front and center. The starting rotation has been very bad lately, and there is no solution in sight.

Here is what the Opening Day rotation was, and where they are now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: still a starter, 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA (6.86 on the road)
--Koji Uehara: has not been bad when healthy, but often could not go longer than 6 innings a game and is always hurt
--Alfredo Simon: needed elbow surgery after two bad starts, out for the year
--Mark Hendrickson: relegated to the bullpen after many bad outings, but has become a decent long reliever
--Adam Eaton: released after posting an 8.56 ERA in eight starts, now playing for Colorado Springs Sky Sox, Rockies Triple-A club

And the rotation now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA
--Brad Bergesen: a solid starter this season, 5-2 record with a 3.53 ERA, 4-0 in last eight starts
--Rich Hill: mostly bad outings with a few exceptions, 3-2 record with a 7.43 ERA, only twice going over 5.2 innings
--Jason Berken: may not be ready, 1-5 record with 6.25 ERA
--David Hernandez: only five starts but ok right now, 2-2 record with 4.15 ERA

It is no doubt that the rotation has been real problematic. Without Bergesen and solid work from the bullpen, the whole pitching staff could be lost. Certainly it was thought the rotation would struggle, but the difficulties with Guthrie and Uehara made things much worse.

But can anything really be done about it right now? As we often tell ourselves, the Orioles are not in contention right now. Not matter what deals can be done, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays will likely be better. Signing a number of free agents likely will not help matters plus will cost millions of dollars. Trading also won't work, as you will not get anyone good and ready to go without giving up one of the big three, which is not an option, and Andy MacPhail will not do that.

The Orioles can keep tapping into Norfolk all they want, and that is what they will do. Already from the Tides came Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Radhames Liz, and Alberto Castillo from the pitching end plus Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Lou Montanez, and Oscar Salazar in the lineup. The Tides pitching staff has been real helpful to the Orioles, and they still have some people left, but eventually the Birds will need to stop bringing people up, if only because they will run out of them. Left that could help now are David Pauley and Chris Waters, but after that, the rotation will need to function on their own.

This whole situation is difficult for the Orioles, but it is one they will need to get through. Mainly because nothing really can be done about it unless the current pitchers can do better. Let's hope they do.

(Photo credit: AP)

A Good Time to be an O's Fan

Oh boy, the air is electric in Baltimore today. I would like to echo the sentiments of Baltimore Sun writer Peter Schmuck in wishing all a Happy Wieters Day, as all of us can look forward to his arrival tonight against the Detroit Tigers. Not only this but the Orioles have won four in a row (six of their last seven), recent call-up Nolan Reimold has taken a hold of the left field job, and young pitchers like Jason Berken and David Hernandez have held their own in their first major league starts.

The recurring theme in all of these pieces of good news is youth. The exemplary play of the Orioles rookies this season -- all of whom came up through this system -- has been the biggest reason to hope and the biggest reason the Orioles have gone on their recent tear. Not too long ago, Nolan Reimold was a forgotten prospect; he had been hampered by injuries and seemed to be losing the window to make it to the bigs as a full-time player. Fast forward to this season, and Reimold was not only able to reaffirm prospect status but has solidified the every day left field position with the O's. Reimold's swing looks far better than it looked in Bowie last year, as he still has the raw power but has improved his plate coverage considerably. The last key for him was in making adjustments, and he seems to be doing just that.

The young pitchers have to give O's fans a ton of hope, as Bergesen, Berken, and Hernandez have all won their major league debuts and all have shown the flashes of ability that they could stick for awhile here. And the best news with these three is that they aren't close to the best that the organization has to offer when it comes to pitching talent. The big guns are still on the way in Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Patton, et al. David Hernandez is the most intriguing of the pitchers in the majors right now, because there is significant conversation over whether or not he'll be a starter in the long term. Based on his debut, I believe there is some more credence to the idea that he could be a starter, because his changeup was used very effectively and he flashed the curveball. If he can regularly throw all four pitches (fastball, slider, change, curve) for strikes and go 100+ pitches as he did yesterday, I don't see why he can't make it as a starter with the adjustments he's made. Brad Bergesen was the earliest of these to come up, but he's fallen on a rough patch and looks to reassert himself tonight.

Bergesen will be throwing to his Bowie battery-mate Matt Wieters tonight, which is easily the biggest point of excitement for O's fans today. It's hard to argue with all of this excitement, because there have been so few reasons for Orioles fans to be happy recently, and Matt has been touted universally by baseball people to be the real deal. I'll be fascinated to see just how he handles the pressure; it's alot to ask a kid to be the savior of a franchise, and one has to hope that it doesn't cause him to press too much at the plate or behind it.

Here He Comes: Matt Wieters Coming Up, as is David Hernandez

Andy MacPhail has made the move; Matt Wieters will be brought up from Norfolk for his major league debut on Friday against the Tigers. Also coming up for Thursday will be David Hernandez according to the Baltimore Sun, as Koji Uehara will be heading to the DL.

For Orioles fans, Wieters coming up is big. The best prospect in the entire minor leagues has been hyped up the last two years, and will play in Camden Yards Friday. He has done well with the Tides, batting above .300.

What is important to know is that Wieters is not going to be a savior this season or next season. For all of his talent, it is very unlikely that he will have a great season. He could have a decent one, this will not make the Orioles a winning team this season. But it is exciting to finally see him in the orange and black. The Orioles had been waiting to bring him up because of arbitration issues, but now he is ready to go.

But also, David Hernandez is coming up. There had been rumors that he might be the next person, and for the Orioles the hand is forced due to Uehara's injury. Check out Windsor's Prospect Report on him here. So far numerous pitchers from Norfolk have been needed. To name them, Brad Bergeson, Jason Berken, Radhames Liz, Matt Albers, and now David Hernandez. Let's just hope that Chris Tillman is not added to that list anytime soon.

(Photo credit: MASN)

Déjà Vu

Or, I think I’ve heard this before somewhere… I’m sorry everyone but something very strange is happening. It’s been very uncanny recently, I keep hearing sports stories that I could swear I must have heard somewhere before. Possibly in a dream… (a bad one)

(1) The Orioles desperately need a fourth (and fifth) starter, tempted to bring up a young buck before his time. (2) The Terps, because of his fantastic practices, make the unpopular decision of naming Jordan Steffy their starting quarterback. (3) The Ravens have a tough decision (or indecision, if you choose to look at it that way) at the quarterback position.

Now let’s put them in perspective, and try to lose the angst (not to mention headache) brought on by each strangely familiar story.

Where oh where is the pitching?
The struggles of the O’s pitching staff have certainly been well document. Now that Garrett Olson has been removed from the rotation in what is regrettably a necessary move, the Orioles are left with only three starters. THREE. And the third? Chris Waters. No offense, but that’s a lot of pressure for a rookie who has only had one quality start, albeit against the best team in baseball in his debut. So where do the Orioles go from here? Simply put they need to go to Hayden Penn for- what? He’s injured and most likely shut down for the year? There’s that funny feeling of déjà vu again… isn’t it creepy? In all seriousness, the Orioles are only left with the option of dipping into the farm system, as there are no bullpen arms to insert into the starting staff(Lance is too necessary in the rotation and JJ is now the closer, so there’s that.). The O’s most likely options include Andy Mitchell (not a prospect, more of a stopgap option a la Chris Waters), Radhames Liz, Brian Burres, Bradley Bergesen, and David Hernandez.

O’s management has played their minor leaguers, for the most part, far better than in previous seasons. Despite the struggles of Liz and Olson, both callups were the right move at the time. Olson was dominating AAA and Liz had made significant strides (though again, they had originally wanted to bring up Penn and give Liz more time). For that reason I doubt they go straight to AA for their fourth starter. Andy Mitchell might be a safe move, but I’m leaning toward the organization bringing back up Liz for the fourth starter’s role. For this Friday’s start (when they will need the starter) Liz will be on regular rest, and he’s coming off of a dominating performance at AAA. There is something to be said for momentum, and keep in mind when he originally came up from Norfolk this season while he was on a roll he started exceptionally strong. I can see the O’s bringing up Brad Bergesen as a fifth starter. I wouldn’t agree with this move, as major league hitters will absolutely hammer him if he does not keep the ball down. He does not have room for error; I’ll leave further elaboration on Bergesen to Expatriate, who has a scouting report from Bergesen’s Sunday start. Also shameless plug, you can reference my earlier prospect report for a more detailed breakdown.

Jordan Steffy? But… but why??
College Park is famous for sports riots. But rarely before school has started. Message boards and sports show call-in lines have exploded as of late, as the bulk of Terp fans have conducted a riot of sorts in wake of the announcement of Jordan Steffy as starter. There is no question that Jordan Steffy is a fantastic guy and has had some terrible luck. But last year he was named the starting QB coming into the season over the popular Florida transfer Josh Portis, and disappointed in the regular season. While he took care of the ball effectively, Jordan far too often settled for check downs and was indecisive on taking the ball deep. A common opinion was that while Jordan could manage a game, the team could never be great with him at the helm. After he suffered a concussion, the second of his career, Chris Turner exploded onto the scene and enamored himself with College Park fans.

But consider the flip side; it’s easy to forget that Chris Turner faded badly down the stretch, despite the victories against Rutgers and Boston College. While head coach Ralph Friedgen has not accomplished enough to be beyond reproach, he certainly would not put in a quarterback he didn’t think could win. He would catch very little flak for starting Turner or Portis instead of Steffy and unlike last year there was no unspoken understanding that it was Steffy’s turn to take over. Coach Friedgen repeatedly expressed frustration at Jordan’s inability to take the ball deep in games, and one can only think that he has seen enough to feel that that has changed.

Jordan Steffy has all the tools to be a very good quarterback, and this year represents a fresh slate. Terp fans should give him a chance; after all, it’s about the team winning, not about ‘being right’. Riiiiiiight?

Who’s willing to hang on to the hot potato?
“Hot potato, really? That’s the pun you’re going with?” Yes, I am. Because both times a Ravens quarterback has been given the limelight of starting this preseason they’ve thrown it away, let’s be very honest. As of yet neither Troy Smith nor Kyle Boller has shown that they want this job when the chips are down. There’s no doubt that both of them want it, but it’s about performance. You do have Flacco in the mix, but the coaching staff has made it relatively clear that he will be holding a clipboard to start the season. Kudos to the organization on that, it is possible to learn from mistakes.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Troy Smith must be the starter to begin the season. Yes; Kyle has looked better in practice, and is certainly the better pure thrower. However, this season the team needs a leader they can believe in, and a quarterback who can mask deficiencies in his supporting cast (O-Line anyone?). The team’s confidence in Troy (and lack thereof in Boller) has been the most poorly kept secret in Baltimore. Neither will set the league on fire, but Smith has the versatility and leadership to elevate the team.

Let’s try to keep our heads up and take a deep breath. This time it could be different. Wait, haven’t we heard that be– oh forget it.

(Photo Credit: AP, Nick Wass)

Prospect Report: David Hernandez

For the second prospect report I want to highlight a pitcher who has been something of a Jeremy Guthrie for Double-A Bowie. David Hernandez, a 23-year old right hander, has dominated the Eastern League this season with a 2.65 ERA but holds a mere 5-3 record in 20 starts. Hence the Jeremy Guthrie comparison. Over his past seven starts he is 1-2, allowing 7 runs in 41 total innings (1.54 ERA), striking out 42 while walking 23. David has surpassed what were already elevated expectations by the Orioles organization and is making his push as a premier prospect in the O's system.

So, who is David Hernandez? David Hernandez was drafted in the 16th round of the 2005 Amateur Draft by the Baltimore Orioles out of Consumnes River Community College (CA). David stands at a height of 6'3", and came out of junior college as an athletic player with potential for growth. So far he has grown somewhat better than anticipated this year, as he has improved in nearly every facet from last year at Advanced-A Frederick to this season at Double-A. David has seen his ERA lower from 4.95 to 2.65, Opp. AVG from .249 to .210, and has managed to increase his endurance in what is a significant step up in the quality of hitters. His finest career moment came in the Carolina League playoffs last year in which he struck out 18 batters in a single game.

Strengths: Hernandez's strength is in his two plus pitches, his fastball and slider. His fastball typically runs 90-93 mph, occasionally touching 95 mph. That fastball has excellent movement leading to high strikeout totals and the ability to miss bats while staying in the strike zone. Early in his minor league career David developed a slider which has arguably become his best pitch with excellent break. Hernandez's steady improvement throughout his minor league career is another significant plus, as he has consistently stepped up his game to superior competition.

Weaknesses: Hernandez's weaknesses are much of what you would expect from a young power pitcher, in that he is occasionally wild (K:BB ratio of 120:52) and is often the victim of the big inning. That strikeout-to-walk ratio is one of the few statistical categories in which he has not been able to improve from last season in which he held a 168:47 ratio. One of the factors that significantly contribute to these walk totals is the lack of development of his third pitch, his changeup. In order to be a successful starter in the Major Leagues David will need to establish that third pitch.

Projection: How and where David Hernandez projects hinges on his ability to establish his changeup as a legitimate pitch he can throw for strikes. If he fails to develop that pitch he can still have a successful career but he most likely would find his niche in the bullpen rather than the rotation. With his progression expect him to finish this season strong at Bowie, and start 2009 in Norfolk's rotation after an extended stay in Spring Training with the big league club, breaking the major league roster sometime between April and June.

(Photo Credit: Will Bentzel/MLB.com)

Off-Day Musings

With the O's (save for Georgie) taking a much-needed break, this gives an opportunity to settle on a couple topics.

Radhames and the Rotation -- Expatriate has already addressed this issue but I feel it warrants some additional consideration. As of right now it would not be feasible to send Liz down to the minors, because let's face it, who would replace him? Not Hayden Penn, who even when not on the DL has had inferior numbers at AAA. Certainly not one of our hot Double-A starting pitchers such as Brad Bergesen or David Hernandez; Bergesen started the year at Frederick and although he has torn through Double-A he hasn't proven it for nearly long enough, and David Hernandez is brilliant but raw just as Liz was/is last year/this year. By sending Liz to the minors and bringing up a Hernandez or a Bergesen we ask for the EXACT SAME problem to develop as it becomes evident that we've rushed yet another promising prospect. And the final option (other than Trachsel-esque FA pitcher or a trade) would be to use Jim Johnson, but that would make the now legendary Albers hole in the 'pen pale by comparison.

In the end, we need to let the young guy work it out. Stick him as the fifth starter, skip his spot occasionally to keep the other starters on normal rest, easing some pressure. Let Kranny work with Liz and get things figured out. Remember -- he has the arsenal of pitches to be very successful - Plus fastball in both movement and velocity, along with an improving slider and change-up. Radhames is the best option we have, and he deserves nothing less than the utmost patience, because he's giving it everything he has.


Keeping Perspective -- Just a short blurb here, guys. Everyone remember where this season began? What the expectations were? This has been a fantastic first half, especially considering the cards that this team has been dealt. Trembley has shown that he can handle a delicate balance of veterans and youth, and although he's had some managerial growing pains with handling starters deep in ballgames, the overall bullpen management has been far better than his predecessors. People know where they stand, know their role, and he sets the right tone. Hopefully the team can stay competetive in the second half-- if the team stays competitive down the stretch, a certain free agent (TEX TEX TEX) might be more inclined... Although now, I might be losing perspective.

(Photo Credit: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)