Early Returns: Matusz Decision a Good One

Earlier today, Falco proposed that I put together a commentary on whether I thought that the Matusz decision was a good one based on what I saw from the start this evening. To that I responded, "Well, one start is hardly a reasonable sampling size to make a judgement. To brand the decision a good or bad one after one start would be unreasonable and to be honest very shortsighted." But we are a sports blog, so isn't that what we're here for?

In that spirit, I really do believe that tonight's start validates the front office's decision to promote the young left hander to the big leagues. Not only because he allowed only one run in his five innings and was rewarded the win; it was about how he got through the Detroit lineup to get to that point. The Tigers hitters were doing Matusz very few favors, fouling off some excellent pitches and turning sharply on most of the mistakes. Matusz got the game going with a 1-2-3 first inning, but after that was walking a tightrope, culminating in his back-to-back strikeouts to end the fifth inning with runners on second and third with a 2-run lead. Those two batters were his last of the evening, as he had ratcheted his pitch count up to 99.

So why am I so convinced after Matusz was only barely able to get through five innings? Because he got out of jams by pitching, not just throwing. Other O's prospects who were rushed too soon start to overthrow when in a jam, relying on pure 'stuff' rather than pitching with poise. Instead, Matusz incorporated all of his pitches and continued going after hitters even after getting hit around. His fastball-changeup combination was fantastic, and while his breaking pitches weren't excellent he still mixed them in enough to keep the hitters off balance in key situations. This year we're hearing more and more about how a major league player is supposed to 'look', and Brian Matusz really seems to have it. Yes, he was a bit amped up to be sure, but he was not shaky in the slightest on the mound. He kept an even demeanor despite being locked in a tight ballgame with a small strike zone. That poise is not common for a player his age, and that's why it's looking like a good decision to bring him up.

Brian Matusz seems ready to face major league hitting. Yes, it's only one start, but he has the makings to just keep getting better with more experience under his belt. Brian Matusz has four plus pitches, and when he and Wieters have more time to get a rapport those will be utilized more effectively than they were at times tonight. I expect Matusz to remain in the rotation even when Bergesen comes back from the disabled list.

The three of us here at Around the Harbor were all against this move-- sometimes we don't mind being wrong.

"4M" News of the Weekend: Mora, Mason, Matusz, and More

What a weekend for Baltimore, wouldn't you say? Lots of Orioles news plus Derrick Mason returning all in the long weekend. Let's get to the news and my opinions on it:

Derrick Mason Unretires, Returns to the Ravens

Derrick Mason has returned to the Ravens after retiring after a few weeks ago. After he left the team, the front office tried out a number of wide receivers in hope of finding a temporary replacement, but after Drew Bennett's retirement the Ravens were short of options. But their #1 wide receiver has returned to training camp and will be playing for the Ravens again this season.

I'm not sure what happened to change Mason's mind or if he was serious about retiring in the first place. Maybe he wanted a new contract, maybe he was still upset about the recent murder of Steve McNair, or maybe he felt that it was his time to leave. But whatever the reason, he has returned and he is ready to play again. So I don't consider this to be a big deal, and with his great career and recent injuries, it would have been reasonable if he had retired. But he is back and that will ease some concerns at receiver.

But only some. Keep in mind that the talk around the draft and free agency was that the current pair was not enough for the Ravens offense. The wide receiver corps is still a problem, but at least now the Ravens have two reliable targets at receiver plus two good tight ends. And I still say trading for Brandon Marshall would be a huge mistake for the Ravens; some issues are not worth dealing with like that.

Melvin Mora Feels "Disrespected" by Dave Trembley

This was getting hot around the weekend, with Mora, the most senior Oriole who was benched for the third time in four games, saying that he feels "disrespected" by Trembley. Trembley says he is disappointed to hear that. Rumor is even going around that the Orioles may release him due to this.

Mora has been here nine years and has been a solid third baseman for most of the time. This season has been rough, hitting just .256 with just three home runs and 27 RBI in 79 games, his worst year since 2002 (.233, 19 HR, 64 RBI). He has only seven errors at third, which is about normal pace for him at third.

On the one hand, I understand that Mora is frustrated. It has been a tough year and he wants to play, and at 37, he may not have many years left. And he has done a lot for this organization in his time here, including nearly getting a batting title. On the other hand, Trembley is trying to win games plus prepare for the future. All signs point to Mora not returning next year, plus the fact that Ty Wigginton is doing pretty well right now. It is perfectly reasonable that Mora loses his spot at third, and although Trembley does not want to upset Mora, he needs to do his best to win right now.

I personally hope the Orioles do not release Mora. It would seem like a quick judgement based on recent events, plus it is unclear who in the short run would replace him.

Brian Matusz Called Up to Start Tuesday?

This comes as quite the surprise to many. In wake of Brad Bergeson's injury and another bad start by Jason Berken, the Orioles may send up their 2008 1st Round Pick Brian Matusz to the mound from the Bowie Baysox for Tuesday's start. Matsuz would be the second of the big three to come up; Chris Tillman is already with the Orioles and will have his second start today, while Jake Arrieta remains with the Norfolk Tides.

First off, Matsuz is tearing up his double-A competition. In eight starts he has a 7-0 record with a 1.55 ERA and 46 Ks to just 11 BB. No doubt he is ready to go up to the next level. Plus, chances are this is only a temporary move until the return of Bergeson, and because he is already on the 40-man roster his clock has already begun. The Orioles will not be worrying about options with Matsuz, as he will be in the orange and black permanently by next year.

But this still worries me to a degree. Normally it is not a good thing to rush a player up, and the Orioles especially have a bad history of rushing people too quickly. Jeff Fiorentino, Jim Hoey and Daniel Cabrera are prime examples. Brian Matsuz is a prospect the Orioles can not screw up with, as he is the most highly touted pitcher in the farm system. Why risk Matsuz when there are a few other players in triple-A that can go with no penalty? Players like Chris Waters and David Pauley would not be that solid in the majors based on their triple-A faring, but wouldn't they be safer options right now? The Orioles will not have Pauley or Waters as part of the future, but let's see if they can go with causing issues with the premier prospects.

I wish Matsuz well against Detroit, I just hope that this is not a mistake the Orioles will regret.

Other news:
--Darrius Heyward-Bey, former Maryland receiver and 7th overall pick by the Oakland Raiders, has signed five-year deal with $23.5 million guaranteed and a base salary of $38.5 million. (Facts courtesy of the Baltimore Sun)
--The trade deadline passed on Friday with no dealing from the Orioles after the Sherrill trade. George Sherrill has appeared in two games for the Dodgers, going 1.1 scoreless innings combined with three strikeouts and a walk with no hits.
--Michael Phelps earned five golds and a silver in Rome, continuing his dominance in swimming.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun (Matsuz), The Examiner (Mason)

Looking at the Farm: Snyder moves up, Matusz/Tillman honored, Brandon Erbe recovering

Hello everyone -- apologies for the lack of Prospect Reports, but I've been having difficulty finding time to get myself to Bowie or Frederick recently. Regardless, I expect to be back doing them soon(ish). This week however I would like to talk about some of the things happening in the O's system, because it remains as the bright spot for O's fans everywhere. Certainly after being swept by the Marlins, the O's faithful can enjoy looking to the future.

1. Brandon Snyder makes the move to Norfolk -- Yes, yes, yes, this is old news (Falco is going to get mad when he sees that I'm writing about old news, but oh well). Still, it's important that I take some time to address this as so many people are late to the game in recognizing Snyder's rise to legit prospect status. For those of you who read my Prospect Report last season, it was apparent that the writing was on the wall for Snyder to make a big time comeback. He's one of the feel-good stories in this organization, having rebounded strongly from a shoulder injury which appeared to derail his career. He still has the high average at the plate, like last year, but he has improved vastly in his ability to stay off of bad pitches and it has shown in his improved OBP. His power stroke is starting to develop as indicated by his 10 home runs in 201 at-bats for the Baysox, and after a slow start at Norfolk he is now hitting a clean .280 in 25 at bats. Keep an eye on this kid, he will be in Baltimore sooner than you think.

2. Matusz and Tillman selected to pitch in the Futures Game -- These two top prospects for the Orioles have been selected to pitch for Team USA in the Futures Game, and now the Orioles have had four pitchers in the past three years invited to the game. This represents a quantum leap for the organization, and gives fans alot to look forward to. As of right now, I can say that Chris Tillman is putting more and more pressure on my assertion that he must not be exposed to the majors this season, as he has continued to show the poise and professionalism that led to his domination of AA hitters last year. Brian Matusz seems to be on the Wieters timetable, but either way it appears that these two will undoubtedly be in the Orioles rotation early next season. No, the future is not now. But it's coming quick.

3. Brandon Erbe on the mend -- I'll keep this short, seeing as I'm writing this on my lunch break. But it's important for O's fans to keep an eye on Brandon Erbe who is looking to continue his rehab tonight at Aberdeen, returning from shoulder fatigue which kept him out after only starting four games for the Baysox. In those four games Erbe was nothing short of brilliant, striking out 19 while walking only 8 and posting a ridiculous 0.90 ERA. Brandon Erbe is a local boy from Owings Mills, and he's got the sort of stuff to translate into a big-time starter for the O's down the line. How he is handled with this delicate situation now could have big ramifications on whether he reaches that potential.

Eyeing the 1st Pick on the MLB Draft

Today is the first day of the MLB Draft, and also for Andy MacPhail to work. Obviously a farm system is built through the draft, but most picks are important. The Orioles have the 5th pick in the draft.

Looking over the first round draft field: This is a very pitching heavy class, primarily from high schoolers. Only a few position players have a chance to break the top 15. Steven Strasburg is expected to be taken first overall by the Nationals, but their is plenty of solid arms behind him.

Possible position targets with the 1st pick:
Starting Pitcher: A farm system never has enough starting pitching, even the Orioles. The Orioles have had mixed success looking for a starter in the first round. Getting Brian Matusz seems to be working out, but getting Adam Loewen did not. Starters can go one of two ways in the draft, you could draft a high school player as a four-five year project, or a college player expecting to play in the majors within two or three seasons.
Possible targets for starting pitcher:
--Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats: A power pitcher with a big fastball and a deadly sinker, Crow refused to sign with the Nationals in last year's draft. Could be a wildcard due to this, but expected to go top-10, with many believing top-5.
--Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS: A solid starter with a good fastball and reliable off-speed pitches. Obvious risk going on a high school player, but Matzek is considered by many as the top high school pitcher in the draft, and should go top-10, possibly top-5.
--Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints (formerly Fresno State): A strong fastball-changeup pitcher has great potential, but is coming off shoulder problems from last year and did not sign with the Pirates last year after being drafted in the second round. A high-risk player with high reward chances, and will probably go top-15.
--Zach Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS: A raw talent righty with an excellent fastball and potential in other areas. A number of possible risk factors, but with time could develop as a big starter. Will go top-10 most likely.
--Ben White, RHP, North Carolina: A starter with a wide array of pitches that make him a strikeout machine. He does have control issues and can be inconsistent, but his upsides are great. Was preseason top-5, but may have fallen to 6-15 range.

First baseman or other top position player: The main weakness of the Orioles farm system is its position players, primary at the infield corners.
Targets for position players:
--Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina: A very consistent player with great power and contact, plus can play outfield and first baseman. However, it is very likely he will not fall to #5, but the Orioles should take him if he does.
--Donovan Tate, OF, Centerville HS: A smart player with great speed and great defensive abilities. His bat will be the focal point, as there are questions with contact and potential power. Should go in the top-10, but where exactly is a question.

Shortstop: The Orioles do not have anyone in the farm system considered a long term solution at shortstop with the possible exception of Blake Davis. A good shortstop is very hard to come by, and as Baltimore knows very well, is a very important defensive position.
Targets at shortstop:
--Grant Green, SS, USC: A quick shortstop with very good contact and can place the ball well. Not much power and will need to work on defensive skills. Pre-season was top-10, but may have fallen to the 11-15 range, so the pick may be not be worth getting Green.

Prediction:
Because Ackley will be off the board by #5, I believe the Orioles will target a pitcher and take advantage of the big arms of the draft. Also because of the success of other pitchers in the farm system, it may be worth it to target a high schooler for the long term. I believe at #5 the best player to take will be Tyler Matzek, and let him grow into the system as a project. As Andy MacPhail has said, "Grow the arms, buy the bats."

Around the Harbor Prediction- Orioles 1st Round: Tyler Matzek

To Orioles Fans: Be Patient

It has been a while since we've posted here, but don't worry, we are back. We all are just busy, but hopefully once things get a little more steady we will be back in full force.

With this, it has been nice for the Orioles lately. They won two out of three in the Battle of the Beltway with the Nats and they won the Memorial Day matinee with Toronto. But, with people are getting hurt and with the release of Adam Eaton, more rosters moves are being made. Jason Berken has been called up and will start today for the Birds. For info on him, check out Windsor's Prospect Report on him. Berken has done very well in his five starts with Norfolk this season, going 2-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 16 strikeouts to six walks.

But one thing that has been occurring is the fans are getting more impatient. Attendance for the Orioles is down, and many people want to see Matt Wieters and the big three pitchers in the majors. 11 losing seasons about to be 12 is upsetting fans. Many were wondering and hoping if Chris Tillman was coming up in the roster, one of the big three pitchers. Especially with the initial successes of Brad Bergeson and Nolan Reimold, who were not the highly touted people, we should bring up the bigger names, right?

But to all Orioles fans, we need to be patient, and wait this out.

In this day and age, we have all come to a "football mentality" of we want things happening sooner rather than later. It is especially frustrating when the Orioles have had losing seasons numerous years and the AL East is routinely beating Baltimore. But Andy MacPhail is right not to rush anyone that is very important, mainly Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta. Bringing them up now will not make the Orioles a competitive team when they are not ready will only hurt their chances to reach their potential.

In the past, the Orioles have had issues bringing up farm system players too quickly. Daniel Cabrera and Jeff Fiorentino come to mind. Cabrera had all the potential in the world to be a dominating fastball-changeup pitcher, even many opposing general managers felt so, but was brought up from Bowie in 2004 after less than a full season there. He had some bright spots, but he never established control and is now off the roster. Jeff Fiorentino was another player with great potential as an outfielder. In 2005 when the team needed outfielders, he was brought up from single-A Frederick, and although he played all right, he never got to his potential. After bouncing to a couple teams in 2008 he landed back on the Orioles, but he is not expected to be a major part of the Orioles future. He is currently in Norfolk batting .254.

The Orioles will not be competitive if they bring up any of the four above players, and they can't waste their potential. Bring them up when they are ready. Likely Wieters will be up this year and at least Tillman will join be the start of next season. But MacPhail is doing the right thing and being patient with these players.

We need to be as well. It is hard, but being patient with the young Birds is the way to go. But for now, let's celebrate the successes of the ones that have come into the majors, and good luck to Berken today.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Jeremy Guthrie Named Opening Day Starter For Orioles

The Orioles have named Jeremy Guthrie the Opening Day starter according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. He did this last year and will faceoff against C.C. Sabathia when they host the Yankees on April 6th.

Guthrie has spent most of his spring training with the U.S. WBC team, but he barely pitched at all. Now back in uniform with the Orioles he has struggled getting into his groove. Koji Uehara was thought to be the best pitcher so far in spring training, but the Orioles will stick with their ace Guthrie and start him Opening Day.

With so many questions about the Orioles rotation, Guthrie will need to be back to form. The fact is this rotation has a lot of arms but nobody standing out that will be in the rotation. The O's don't want to throw their top three pitching prospects into the fire yet, them being Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta, but in order to ensure that the Orioles don't bring them up yet, they need their stopgaps to perform. Having a solid ace will easily help matters. A lot of support will be needed from Guthrie and Uehara in order to lead the rotation successfully.

(Photo credit: AP)

Prospect Report: Welcome to the Arizona Fall League

Although the bats in Baltimore may have stopped for a couple weeks, a good number of the young birds are getting right back into the swing (no pun intended) down at the Arizona Fall League. I originally was under the impression that only a few players from the Orioles' farm system would be down there, but a total of eight Orioles minor leaguers will be partaking. Each week I will give updates on their performances, and I'll see if I can squeeze a Report in there while I'm at it. All of the Orioles' prospects will be playing with the Surprise Rafters, and their names are as follows:

-Brandon Snyder (1B)
-Blake Davis (SS)
-Ryan Keefer (RP)
-Brian Matusz (SP)
-Bob McCrory (RP)
-Chad Thall (RP)
-Matt Wieters (C)
-Nolan Reimold (OF)

So who has the most to prove of this bunch? Despite the hype around Brian Matusz and Nolan Reimold's push to make the big leagues, I still believe that Brandon Snyder has the most to prove. He's put up back-to-back superb performances in the Hawaii Winter League and in the Advanced-A Carolina League, but he is still plagued by doubts about consistency and power. There is no doubt about the top-tier prospect status of Wieters and Matusz, and players like Blake Davis, Bob McCrory, and Chad Thall have the advantage of being prospects at positions where the big league club has a glaring need. Brandon Snyder is recovering from fringe-prospect status, and plays a position that could be blocked off by the time he is ready for a jump.

That all being said, all eyes will be (and should be) on Brian Matusz and his performance this fall. They will try to break him in slowly to be sure, but when a team drafts a polished starting pitcher with the fourth overall pick there usually isn't a very long build-up from bullpen to starting. The most exciting thing about having a player like Brian Matusz (not to mention Matt Wieters) in the Fall Leagues is that these aren't just young players who may make the majors four years from now, these are both players who are no more than a year or so away from breaking into the big leagues.

People say that following something as small as the Arizona Fall League is boring and a waste of time. But watching a battery of Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters? That's worth the price of admission.

Orioles get Matusz, draft signings successful

Like many first rounders, Brian Matusz waited until the last day to sign the dotted line, but eventually did. The lefty starter from San Diego caps the August 15th deadline for the Orioles, signing a 3.2 million dollar signing bonus in his major league deal (Dan Connolly, Baltimore Sun). Only two first rounders, Aaron Crow for the Nationals and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees, didn't sign.

With the signing, the top nine picks plus picks 11-15 have been signed to the Orioles farm system. Along with Matusz, notables include:
--Xavier Avery: 2nd round, CF, had committed to play football for Georgia
--L.J. Hoes: 3rd round, 2B/OF, local phenom who had committed to UNC
--Kyle Hudson: 4th round, OF, hit .411 for Illinois in 2008
--Gregory Miclat: 5th round, SS, solid contact hitter with speed for UVA
--Jesse Beal: 14th round, P, had committed to Maryland (I reserve judgement on this one, Maryland really, really needs pitching)
--Brian Conley: 16th round, OF, from Towson
--Chad Durakis and Oliver Drake: 38th and 43rd rounds respectively, both played for local colleges (Maryland and Navy)

Overall, this draft was very successful for the Orioles, They landed their top nine picks, mainly focusing on prospects that were likely to join the Orioles and not head to college (Avery, Hoes) as well as already established college juniors (Matusz, Hudson, Miclat). They didn't go for high-risk players who didn't want to sign, and they got paid off by getting who they wanted.

The only thing that would have made the draft perfect for the Orioles would have been to sign Kevin Brady, a player taken in the 44th round who had 3rd round talent, but didn't want to sign for 3rd round money. The Orioles had a throw away draft pick, and tried to entice the fireballer, but couldn't. But no big loss. The fact is the Orioles had a solid signing time and they should be real happy with the new crop of players.

(Photo credit: Collegebaseballinsider.com)

Free Kicks

Well everyone, Free Kicks is coming a day late today; I hope y’all can excuse my absence. Life called, and apparently I am behind on my payments. I had to get something in before the end of the week, so perhaps you can enjoy some bonus weekend coverage on ATH. As the Ravens get ready for tonight’s game, let’s line up for the kick.

Waters Down the Drain?

We didn’t expect Chris Waters to one-hit every team through 8 innings, but we didn’t exactly expect this either after his gem against the Angels. In his last two starts, Waters has allowed a total of 8 runs in 8 2/3 innings against the Tigers and Rangers. Even if we can give him a pass against those electric bats of Texas, it still must give us pause to consider that it took Waters 90 and 98 pitches to get through 4 and 4 2/3 innings. As has been the problem all year, Orioles starters just can’t seem to stay in the game. I am tired of seeing Lance Cormier, the last of the true middle relievers, come out for 2-3 innings every other day. As of now he is still the best available option to Dave Trembley, but that isn’t saying much. The bullpen ERA continues to balloon (4th worst in the AL), and the starters are doing very little to give them any break.

Feeling a Draft

For the second straight year, it took to the final day before the Orioles signed their top pick, though at least this time it didn’t go until 11:50 PM. Around 3 PM, Brian Matusz and the Orioles agreed to a 4-year deal that will be worth at least $3.47 million. Matusz, 21, could see action in Baltimore late next season as he was considered the most major league-ready pitcher in the draft. Our resident prospect guru raves about Matusz, who joins 13 of the other top 15 Orioles draft picks in signing before the deadline. The lone exception was 11th round selection Nathan Moreau. Every time I begin to doubt this staff they put something incredible together and get things done. When was the last time you were excited about the Orioles draft? Yea, I can’t remember either.

Man of Troy

Troy Smith will get the nod tonight for the Ravens against the Vikings, and don’t think it is just to balance out the start Coach Harbaugh gave to Kyle Boller last week. Troy Smith entered training camp as the favorite to win the starting job, and he has somewhat disappointed this month in camp. However, where Smith excels is when plays break down, when he is forced to make split second decisions to save a first down. Behind this inexperienced and, frankly, poor offensive line, Smith’s skills will be far more valuable than Boller’s arm or his experience. With players like Boller and Joe Flacco in camp there will be a natural tendency to dissuade their QBs from running, and the coaching staff needs to be careful to tailor their teaching to each quarterback’s individual skills.

We will see tonight whether Troy Smith can turn in a Heisman-like performance against the Vikings. His attitude has been exceptional, helping him become a popular signal caller with the other players, Bart Scott referring to him as “Willie Beaman,” Jamie Foxx’s character from “Any Given Sunday.” He may be a Buckeye at heart, but if he can win I want him as my quarterback. Flacco might be waiting in the wings, but I’d rather see the Blue Hen on the sidelines.