Free Kicks: The Fan's Late-Season Swoon Survival Guide (Edition)

This team is an astonishingly bad 6-15 since the All-Star Break, and they are losing all types of games. Pitching duels, blowouts, late-inning collapses, etc. Peter Schmuck had a wonderful piece on his blog (and you know how critical I am of him lately) that was quite passionate about fans criticizing this team for its record and the free-fall that is happening all too early this season. I know most of these games have been against the Red Sox, Yankees, and AL Central-leading Tigers, but 6-15 speaks for itself. I won’t argue whether this team is in complete late-season disintegration mode; it would be a wasteful exercise that will be borne out by the record anyway. What I will do is provide some tips I have learned to avoid the malaise that occurs when the team is 25 games under .500 and 4 months of losing starts to get to you. Let’s line up for the kick…

Follow the Young Guns
Take a bit of joy in zoning out for Melvin Mora’s at-bat and pay close attention to Nolan Reimold’s and Matt Wieters’ at-bats. Break it down, from how they handle that slider to how hard they run to first. Since one-at-bat rarely matters in the grand scheme of a player’s development, it will be easy to shrug it off if they pop out or strike out, but you can take a great deal of joy in the small victory when they get on base. Same with the pitchers, and there will be an abundance of opportunities for this in the last month and a half- chalk up a 3 inning, 6 earned runs performance to jitters or playing in a new ballpark or adjusting to major league hitters while proclaiming a quality start to be the turning point for next year’s Cy Young candidacy. It may be disingenuous, but rose-colored glasses and selective attention can really make watching a losing team a lot easier.

Blame the Veterans
They won’t be around for the O’s turnaround, so who cares about them? Blame the loss on Wiggington’s boneheaded attempt at a double, or complain about how overpaid Danys Baez is when he gives up the go-ahead run in the 8th. To O’s fans, the team we care about is the team in 2010 or 2011- if the player isn’t going to be on that team, it makes it a lot easier to not be emotionally invested in their success. Does that loss really count if you can blame it on the gus who won’t be here? That’s up to you.

Minor League Successes
The Delmarva Shorebirds, Norfolk Tides, and Bowie Baysox are all in a playoff hunt in their respective leagues. Sure most of the talented players who started with Bowie or Norfolk are gone now, but there is never a bad time to root for a winning team. Head over to one of their stadiums to get the feel for what a pennant hunt feels like- the atmosphere can truly be incredibly exciting as you watch the O’s of tomorrow try to win one at the minor league level. Plus, it’ll prepare you as a fan for when the major league club is making a run in a year or two.

There is Always Football Season
Yes, it was bound to come up eventually. The presence of football season in August (and seemingly year round) can come as a respite to the beleaguered fan who has just had enough of watching Jeremy Guthrie give up a 3 run shot or watching Aubrey Huff ground slowly into an inning-ending double play. That isn’t to say it’s a cop-out, there are plenty of great stories going on at training camp- the development of Joe Flacco, the dearth of wide receivers (what need is bigger: the O’s for a quality starter or the Ravens for a quality receiver?), the reinvention of the defense, etc. Walking away from the O’s in September may not be classy, but for personal sanity it may be a fan’s last option.

Prospect Report: Ty Kelly

Welcome back to the Prospect Reports, and I thought I'd mix it up with this one. Last week I went with Falco to an Aberdeen Ironbirds game, partially to prep for a Tyler Townsend report. Well, I found myself thoroughly impressed by another Tyler, Ty Kelly, so now I'd like to give you all a look at this 13th-round pick who might start to turn some heads. In that game Ty went 5-6 with 1 rbi, 3 runs scored, and notched a walk in the process. That hasn't been his only highlight, as he his currently leading the Ironbirds with a .316 average and has recorded multi-hit games in 5 of his past 6 starts. But now I know what you're asking...

So, who is Ty Kelly? Ty Kelly was drafted out of UC Davis in the 13th round of this year's 2009 First Year Player Draft, and quickly signed with the Baltimore Orioles. The versatile infielder, most likely pegged to play at 2nd base as a pro, stands at 6'0" and 185 pounds and is a switch hitter. Ty came out of college as a junior, and as such he will be only reaching his 21st birthday this coming Monday, July 20th (happy early birthday, Ty). At UC Davis, Kelly earned a reputation as a high-average batter and a versatile defender. Despite missing his freshman season with injury, he returned in his sophomore season to lead the Big West Conference in batting, hitting at a clip of .394 with an on-base percentage of .448. He came back to earth in his junior year, batting .307 with four home runs, starting all 55 games for the Aggies. After being drafted by the Orioles, Ty quickly signed on and has been a very pleasant surprise for the Ironbirds, batting .316 with one home run and 4 rbis in 18 games, switching between 3rd and 2nd base defensively.

Strengths: Ty Kelly's biggest asset offensively is his ability to hit for a high average from both sides of the plate. Kelly has a very compact swing with good balance, which allows him to hit effectively to all fields. Ty has shown the ability to hit the occasional home run, but he could develop into a doubles machine in the Brian Roberts mold (however with slightly less speed). Ty Kelly is also a very versatile defender, having played at shortstop, third, and second base in college and his early pro career (not to mention playing center field in the Cape Cod league this past summer). His excellent defensive instincts should smooth his professional development significantly.

Weaknesses: The major drawback to Tyler's skill set is that he has below average power, and doesn't project to improve on that significantly. This limits his potential to play outfield and third base regularly in the majors, and really relegates him to second base. He's also limited by what most would term only an average arm defensively, which again pegs him at second rather than at third base (which is a huge need for the Orioles organization). Another point that Ty will have to work on is his ability to draw walks and manufacture extra bases; if he's going to be an impact player with his bat, his on base percentage and baserunning will have to improve.

Projection: The key in Ty Kelly's development will be where the organization feels he is at with respect to the development of L.J. Hoes. If Hoes starts at Delmarva I expect Kelly to be at Frederick, or vice-versa. I believe that in the end the Orioles see Kelly as a second baseman (just speculation, I don't have inside information), and I don't think they want one to be playing and the other one warming the bench. I wouldn't be surprised at all, given the relative ages, for Kelly to start next year at Frederick. If he continues to excel and his development stays on track, he should be in the 2nd base discussion at end of Brian Roberts' contract.

[Photo Credit: UC-Davis Athletics]

Looking at the Farm: Snyder moves up, Matusz/Tillman honored, Brandon Erbe recovering

Hello everyone -- apologies for the lack of Prospect Reports, but I've been having difficulty finding time to get myself to Bowie or Frederick recently. Regardless, I expect to be back doing them soon(ish). This week however I would like to talk about some of the things happening in the O's system, because it remains as the bright spot for O's fans everywhere. Certainly after being swept by the Marlins, the O's faithful can enjoy looking to the future.

1. Brandon Snyder makes the move to Norfolk -- Yes, yes, yes, this is old news (Falco is going to get mad when he sees that I'm writing about old news, but oh well). Still, it's important that I take some time to address this as so many people are late to the game in recognizing Snyder's rise to legit prospect status. For those of you who read my Prospect Report last season, it was apparent that the writing was on the wall for Snyder to make a big time comeback. He's one of the feel-good stories in this organization, having rebounded strongly from a shoulder injury which appeared to derail his career. He still has the high average at the plate, like last year, but he has improved vastly in his ability to stay off of bad pitches and it has shown in his improved OBP. His power stroke is starting to develop as indicated by his 10 home runs in 201 at-bats for the Baysox, and after a slow start at Norfolk he is now hitting a clean .280 in 25 at bats. Keep an eye on this kid, he will be in Baltimore sooner than you think.

2. Matusz and Tillman selected to pitch in the Futures Game -- These two top prospects for the Orioles have been selected to pitch for Team USA in the Futures Game, and now the Orioles have had four pitchers in the past three years invited to the game. This represents a quantum leap for the organization, and gives fans alot to look forward to. As of right now, I can say that Chris Tillman is putting more and more pressure on my assertion that he must not be exposed to the majors this season, as he has continued to show the poise and professionalism that led to his domination of AA hitters last year. Brian Matusz seems to be on the Wieters timetable, but either way it appears that these two will undoubtedly be in the Orioles rotation early next season. No, the future is not now. But it's coming quick.

3. Brandon Erbe on the mend -- I'll keep this short, seeing as I'm writing this on my lunch break. But it's important for O's fans to keep an eye on Brandon Erbe who is looking to continue his rehab tonight at Aberdeen, returning from shoulder fatigue which kept him out after only starting four games for the Baysox. In those four games Erbe was nothing short of brilliant, striking out 19 while walking only 8 and posting a ridiculous 0.90 ERA. Brandon Erbe is a local boy from Owings Mills, and he's got the sort of stuff to translate into a big-time starter for the O's down the line. How he is handled with this delicate situation now could have big ramifications on whether he reaches that potential.

Prospect Report: Jake Arrieta

Welcome to a special Tuesday edition of the Prospect Report, and today we’ll take a look at one of the finest young pitchers in the Orioles’ system. Jake Arrieta was much acclaimed out of college and has lived up to the hype in his first two professional seasons. This year he has certainly not disappointed, particularly in his most recent start for the Bowie Baysox on May 16th. In that start, Baysox fans were treated to an exceptional performance in which he pitched seven innings of one-hit ball in which he struck out ten batters while walking three. In this he tied a career high in strikeouts and went the deeper into a ballgame than in any other start this year.

So, who is Jake Arrieta? Jake Arrieta is entering his second professional season at the age of 23. The right-handed starter has a solid frame at 6’4” and 225 pounds. Jake was drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft out of Texas Christian University. At TCU he was the staff ace, going 9-3 with a 3.01 ERA in 17 starts and struck out 93 batters in 98.1 innings. After his junior year there were significant signability concerns which caused him to drop as far as he did in the draft, but Joe Jordan and the Orioles took the risk and were willing to pay him far out of slot to join the organization. Thus far this has paid off greatly, as he burst onto the scene last year as he went straight into Advanced-A ball where he was named the Carolina League pitcher of the year with his league leading 2.87 ERA and striking out batters at a rate of over 1 for each inning pitched. He also pitched six shutout innings for Team USA in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Arrieta had a brief stint with the major league club in spring training, and most likely is headed up to Triple-A Norfolk at some point this season.

Strengths: Without a doubt, Jake’s greatest strength is his dominating fastball. His fastball has been clocked as high as 97 mph, and uses it to set up his breaking pitches exceptionally well. At his most recent start (according to the Baysox stadium radar gun), Jake regularly hit between 89-94 mph, occasionally touching 95 mph. When Arrieta varies speeds and locates effectively, there are very few minor leaguers who can touch his stuff. His off-speed pitches are improving, particularly his hard slider which has an excellent late break. Jake Arrieta’s delivery is smooth, and he conceals the ball well as he doesn’t expose it to the hitter until the last moment. He has also fielded his consistently well, which will certainly serve him well in the majors.

Weaknesses: While his fastball can be dominant, Jake Arrieta has issues with consistency in his location. Even in his dominant Saturday start, Arrieta inexplicably lost his command during the second inning in which he threw around 30 pitches. This not only leads to high pitch counts, but it bodes poorly for the future in that upper-level hitters will not chase so many pitches out of the zone. While his slider is getting to be a plus pitch for him, his curveball and changeup need significant work. If Arrieta is to become an accomplished major league starter he will need to find a third pitch that can keep hitters honest.

Projection: There have been some rumblings amidst O’s fans that Arrieta might end up in the bullpen because of his fastball-slider combination (including myself to some extent late last season), but I see no reason that Arrieta should be pegged as a bullpen pitcher. First and foremost, Jake has shown the endurance required to make it as a starter despite his recent issues getting deep into games. For proof look no further than Saturday’s start in which he was still throwing 94 mph after he had cleared the 100 pitch mark. Jake Arrieta has a sound delivery and an ideal frame for a starting pitcher, and with some refinement in his control he should transition very well to the majors. The Orioles have long said that Arrieta’s on the fast track and his progression has given them no reason to alter that philosophy. Many scouts think Arrieta has the potential to be a staff ace, but I see his ceiling as more of a number two starter for this team. Jake will be in Norfolk later this season and should make the starting rotation by mid-season next year at the very latest.

(Photo Credit: Rob Tringali/Getty Images)

Developing Stories in the 2009 Minor League Season

I've decided that, mostly due to my inability to get out to some minor league games this week, I'm going to have to skip this week's Prospect Report. There have been some players who have absolutely warranted reports being done, particularly Brandon Erbe, but I want to get a longer look before I tackle some of the bigger prospects in this system. But I thought I would take this time to take a step back and look at some of the bigger storylines playing out through the O's farm system.

Brandon Erbe's surprising dominance: Brandon Erbe has absolutely exploded onto the scene this season; I won't go into too much depth, because I'd like to save it for a later Prospect Report. Erbe blasted onto the map a few years ago out of high school, but the Pasadena native struggled badly in Frederick in 2007 and had a decent, but not overwhelming season in 2008. Making the jump to Bowie this year, Erbe was not expected to be as dominant as he has been, pitching to a 0.90 ERA in four starts this season, striking out 19 while walking 8. Brandon Erbe has long been known as a pitcher with phenomenal stuff but severe inconsistency. Maintaining anywhere near this level of excellence throughout this season will be a huge storyline to follow.

Billy Rowell moving to right field: Okay, now this was a weird one entering the season. Billy Rowell was once the premier prospect in this organization, but after a horrendous year in Frederick and continuing questions about his attitude, Rowell has fallen off to the point of being considered a huge bust. Now the former third baseman has been moved to the outfield in an attempt to allow him to focus on his hitting, and it seems to be starting to work. His average has slowly climbed up after a poor start, and by many accounts Rowell has been working harder in his hitting and is consciously trying to fix his game. This is a desperate move by the organization, but a wise one; if his bat can be salvaged and the raw power can materialize, the Orioles can find a place for him at first, third, or DH. The first step for a player of his natural abilities is to get his bat in order and find a place for him defensively. But he certainly won't stay at right field forever.

Young position players struggling to take hold in Delmarva: While it's difficult to find many position prospects in the upper levels of the O's system, a number of draftees from last year are trying to establish themselves in Delmarva. Among them are second baseman L.J. Hoes, shortstop Greg Miclat, and outfielders Ronnie Welty, Xavier Avery, and Kyle Hudson. All five of these players started off very slowly, and aside from Welty, all continue to bat under .300 with zero home runs combined (Welty is batting .309 with 1 hr). While it is expected that players like LJ Hoes (.260 avg) and Xavier Avery (.180) would struggle early on because they are right out of high school, polished players like Kyle Hudson and Greg Miclat were not expected to struggle so much. This is particularly true for Miclat, who was very polished coming out of UVA as a high average hitter, but is only hitting .200 through 16 games. Expect him to bounce back strong and end with a higher average. Watching these young hitters sink or swim in their first professional season is an important storyline for the future of the Orioles down the line.

Nolan Reimold - The Man, The Legend: Okay, well he's not playing that well, but the point still remains. Reimold feels that he should be in the majors right now, and rather than raising a fuss to the media he's just going about his business and proving it through his play. Now, rather than it being just him telling the Orioles that they are making a mistake by keeping him in Norfolk, he has much of the fan base clamoring for him instead. Reimold has been on an absolute tear this season, batting .403 with 6 home runs, 19 rbis, and 4 stolen bases. He has even increased his walks and cut down on his strikeouts, with a decent 14:9 K:BB ratio. MacPhail will keep the Pie experiment alive for awhile longer, but the pressure is mounting to bring in the home prospect to replace him already. It's just important to remember that Reimold is known for being streaky; the question has not been whether or not he could hit .400 over a period of a month, but it's whether he can avoid following it with a few weeks of batting .200.

Prospect Report: Jason Berken

I promise, one of these days I will in fact profile a position prospect. Quite honestly this system still needs an awful lot of help with position prospects without the last names of Wieters and Snyder. So rather than reaching for a position player, I have to give credit where credit is due, and profile the oft-overlooked Jason Berken. Berken was part of the Baysox’s incredible run last season, ranking second in wins on that team only to Brad Bergesen. He started this season in AA to the surprise of many, but rather than grumbling about being slighted he went about his work and was recently promoted to Norfolk. In his debut with the Tides he dazzled, pitching 7 shutout innings with only 4 hits allowed to go with 3 strikeouts and zero walks.

So, who is Jason Berken? Jason Berken is a 25-year old right handed starter hailing from the small town of De Pere, Wisconsin. Berken started playing baseball at Clemson University, where he put together a couple solid seasons as a starter in 2004 and 2006, missing the 2005 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. His rebound from surgery in 2006 was impressive, as he posted a 9-3 record in 18 starts, pitching to a 3.22 ERA in 81 innings. In doing this he was able to strike out 75 batters while walking 34. At Clemson he was known as a team leader and pitched his best when against ACC competition. The Orioles decided to take a chance on him in the 6th round of the 2006 Amateur Draft, placing him at short season Aberdeen where he excelled. Jason took a small step back in 2007, going 9-9 at Frederick with a 4.53 ERA and posting a career high 49 walks. Last season Berken exploded onto the map at Bowie with his finest season, going 12-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 124-38 K-BB ratio.

Strengths: Jason Berken has the full complement of pitchers that you would like in a starting pitcher. He throws a 91-92 mph fastball with a changeup, slider, and curveball to complement. Berken’s greatest strength is in his command of these pitches, particularly his fastball. His slider can become a valuable go-to pitch for Berken when he is locating it properly. Unlike other young pitchers, Jason Berken is unafraid to pitch to contact and go right after hitters, which is exactly the sort of mature approach that can help him translate his game to the majors. As has been seen very often, young pitchers who are afraid to pitch to contact find themselves trying to be too perfect and get hit around in the big leagues. Berken has shown resilience throughout his career from the Tommy John surgery to his early struggles at Frederick. Even this season he showed that resilience, in rebounding from his first two mediocre starts at Bowie (total of 8 IP allowing 5 ER), only to pitch 7 shutout after his promotion to Norfolk.

Weaknesses: Jason Berken, while having good command, does not have the great level of command like other current and former Orioles prospects Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen. His command of offspeed pitches needs improvement, or more experienced hitters will just sit on his fastball which is not a plus pitch. In the end, Berken relies heavily on having good command because none of his pitches grades out much above average. Another concern is the fact that Berken, aside from his short stint at Aberdeen, has never been the top pitcher on his staff, including all of his years at Clemson. Jason Berken is also an injury concern, because even though he has felt no ill effects from the Tommy John surgery in recent years, that surgery is still a red flag for scouts.

Projection: Jason Berken is a tough pitcher who has fought his way to recognition, in much of the same way that Bergesen came out from anonymity last year. Jason Berken had a tough hand dealt to him this year being placed at Bowie rather than Norfolk, but he handled it well and now has his shot at AAA. Berken does not command the heavy sinker that gives Bergesen significant success, but does have a good deal of polish and poise which makes him a good option for callup sometime this year. He might not be a top-tier prospect like Tillman, Arrieta, or Hernandez, but the O’s would be far wiser to bring Berken up this season ahead of those aforementioned prospects who need more polish first. It’s hard to see where Berken might end up down the road, as the bevy of top pitchers should block him from a permanent rotation spot. I expect Berken to have a rotation spot by the end of this season and compete for a back-of-the rotation place or long reliever spot next season.

Note: There is an excellent piece on MiLB.com discussing the early success of the top young pitchers for the Orioles in the minor leagues this season. Definitely check it out.

(Photo Credit: Kevin Pataky/MLB.com)

Prospect Report: First Thoughts on 2009

After the long offseason break, I welcome you back to Around the Harbor's weekly Prospect Report, in which I'll either profile a noteworthy player or just give some general thoughts on the state of the Orioles farm. I was hoping to give a profile of Bowie's opening day starter Jason Berken this week, but I'm going to put that off until I have a chance to see him some more. So, to start things off I would like to share some of my thoughts as to what I'm looking for this year in the Orioles minor league system.

AAA Norfolk Tides
- The starting pitching for this year’s team should be night-and-day from last year, in which the Norfolk rotation was marked by veteran retreads and borderline prospects. The Norfolk rotation this season is headlined by Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman and David Hernandez, who are all coming over from last year’s Bowie Baysox team which made the playoffs. My question is, how long will pitchers like Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez stay? Certainly I expect Bergesen to be pitching in the majors in one, maximum of two, months from now. Hernandez I expect to be up sometime this year, but I suspect the Orioles organization will not bring up Tillman at any point this season.
- The bullpen should be improved, but does have its share of questions. Bob McCrory and Kam Mickolio both have the arms to be solid bullpen pitchers, but both are coming off of disappointing 2008s in which they were given chances to make it with the big club and failed. Radhammes Liz is the other big question mark, as he moves from the rotation to the bullpen. Liz has the potential to be a great late-inning reliever, as does Mickolio, but I’m going to have to see a good deal from McCrory to be convinced.
- Nolan Reimold and Luis Montanez should be a huge boost to the Tides’ offense, as both are legitimate power hitters and were able to dominate AA pitching last season. Infielders Scott Moore and Oscar Salazar are returning, but none of the position players outside of Reimold and Montanez are considered legitimate prospects. Either way, the corps of hitters are good enough such that if injuries strike the big league club there are legitimate options at AAA to go to.

AA Bowie Baysox
- Again, pitching is the main story here. Jason Berken was roughed up a bit in his first start of the season, pitching only 3 innings and giving up 3 earned runs, but he leads a very impressive rotation along with Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Jake Arrieta is the real headline prospect from this group, but he has yet to pitch a full season in the minor leagues because of his stint last year in the Olympics. I’m eager to see how long Arrieta actually stays in Bowie if he excels; the organization has long let it be known that Arrieta is on the fast track to the majors, so I expect him to be in Norfolk sometime midseason.
- Brandon Erbe will be a major storyline for this team. Erbe has struggled somewhat with inconsistency, but started to return to form last season at Frederick. His stuff is as good as any in this system, so if he can begin to harness it at this level he can reestablish himself as a top prospect in this organization. And he’s a local boy, which doesn’t hurt at all.
- Brandon Snyder is another player to watch on this team. I’ve talked extensively about Brandon in previous prospect reports, and I still believe that he can be a major piece of the Orioles future if he can develop some power. Snyder has the frame to develop into a power hitter, but already has excellent bat control and can accumulate a high average despite drawing very few walks. I expect Snyder to be tried out some at third base as well given the fact that Billy Rowell has been moved to the outfield in Frederick and Snyder’s bat would seem to play better at third than first.

Advanced-A Frederick Keys
- Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, and Chorye Spoone are the standouts on yet another impressive rotation in the Orioles system. Matusz is slated to get the Matt Wieters treatment, in that he will spend half of this season getting his feet wet in Frederick before moving up to Bowie at the season’s midway point. Zach Britton is a pitcher who went largely unnoticed last year in Delmarva, but like his counterparts Sean Gleason and John Mariotti, will have a chance to get noticed this year in Frederick. Britton comes in with a ton of potential and an excellent track record, and with a good season could make a push for Bowie.
- Chorye Spoone, as faithful readers of this blog might know, is a personal favorite of mine in the system. He is a local prospect from Pasadena, MD and is currently coming off of shoulder surgery which, although it isn’t supposed to be a long term issue, is always a big concern. Chorye was a vital part of the Keys’ playoff run two years ago, and has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in this system. A big return from him this year would be a huge win for both the Keys and for the Orioles’ long term plans.
- Billy Rowell is the main position prospect to look for in this year’s team, as he holds immense power potential in his bat but failed to produce at even an average level last season. Rowell’s attitude problems and adjustment issues were more than apparent last season as he was clearly overmatched at Frederick, and this season is vital to determining whether or not he’s a flat-out bust.
- Another note from a position perspective at Frederick: Ryan Adams’ performance at second base will be a major storyline to watch, as he set a record last season for errors at Delmarva. Adams is terrific with the bat, and supposedly the errors he makes should be correctible. Whether or not that comes to fruition will determine not only his future down the line but whether or not Keys fans are in for a very long season.

That’s going to close it up for this week’s Prospect Report. Certainly yes, there are the Shorebirds, and yes, the progression of Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes is crucial to the future of the Orioles system given the lack of quality position players in the system, but I think it wiser to save some material for later.

And a quick message to close: Why to we care about all of these players in the minor leagues. So that someday, someday, the Orioles will not have to rely on pitchers like Brian Bass.

Prospect Report: Welcome to the Arizona Fall League

Although the bats in Baltimore may have stopped for a couple weeks, a good number of the young birds are getting right back into the swing (no pun intended) down at the Arizona Fall League. I originally was under the impression that only a few players from the Orioles' farm system would be down there, but a total of eight Orioles minor leaguers will be partaking. Each week I will give updates on their performances, and I'll see if I can squeeze a Report in there while I'm at it. All of the Orioles' prospects will be playing with the Surprise Rafters, and their names are as follows:

-Brandon Snyder (1B)
-Blake Davis (SS)
-Ryan Keefer (RP)
-Brian Matusz (SP)
-Bob McCrory (RP)
-Chad Thall (RP)
-Matt Wieters (C)
-Nolan Reimold (OF)

So who has the most to prove of this bunch? Despite the hype around Brian Matusz and Nolan Reimold's push to make the big leagues, I still believe that Brandon Snyder has the most to prove. He's put up back-to-back superb performances in the Hawaii Winter League and in the Advanced-A Carolina League, but he is still plagued by doubts about consistency and power. There is no doubt about the top-tier prospect status of Wieters and Matusz, and players like Blake Davis, Bob McCrory, and Chad Thall have the advantage of being prospects at positions where the big league club has a glaring need. Brandon Snyder is recovering from fringe-prospect status, and plays a position that could be blocked off by the time he is ready for a jump.

That all being said, all eyes will be (and should be) on Brian Matusz and his performance this fall. They will try to break him in slowly to be sure, but when a team drafts a polished starting pitcher with the fourth overall pick there usually isn't a very long build-up from bullpen to starting. The most exciting thing about having a player like Brian Matusz (not to mention Matt Wieters) in the Fall Leagues is that these aren't just young players who may make the majors four years from now, these are both players who are no more than a year or so away from breaking into the big leagues.

People say that following something as small as the Arizona Fall League is boring and a waste of time. But watching a battery of Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters? That's worth the price of admission.

Prospect Report: Ranking the Prospects

After much deliberation, I’ve settled on this ranking of the top-20 prospects (in my opinion) in the Orioles’ farm system. I was just going to give you ten, but I’ll add on 11-20 as a bonus. Each of the prospect names are linked to either this season’s minor league statistics or previous seasons (or college in case of Matusz). Enjoy.

1. Matt Wieters – People have asked me, “Why haven’t you done a Prospect Report on Matt Wieters? He’s the headline prospect!” My response is this: Prospect Reports are for minor league players, and not major league players playing in the minor leagues. I have had the pleasure of seeing Matt Wieters play in person several times and it’s clear that the reports on Matt are not in the slightest bit exaggerated. Wieters swings the bat for both power and average, while at the same time has excellent patience at the plate. Despite having a 6’5” frame he is surprisingly quick on his feet behind the plate, not to mention an absolute cannon of an arm. He is arguably the best prospect in baseball, at the very least a lock for the top three.
2. Brian Matusz – Although Matusz is unproven in the minor leagues, by all accounts he is already very close to being major league ready. He holds four plus pitches which he can throw for strikes. The only warning flag is his somewhat violent delivery, although there are differing opinions as to whether or not this will be an issue in the future. Matusz projects to be an ace at best and a number three starter at worst. A polished lefty with four plus pitches and has top-of-the-rotation potential? I’ll take that any day.
3. Chris Tillman – Tillman has been brilliant this season; everything the Orioles could have hoped for and more. You can read the earlier prospect report on Tillman here. Despite the fact that Tillman has been so effective at Bowie while being only 20 years old, he is ranked behind Matusz for the fact that his pitches aren’t nearly as far developed and is not as much of a sure thing.
4. Jake Arrieta – The Orioles are again blessed with a special arm in their system. The Orioles drafted Jake Arrieta in the fifth round of the 2007 MLB Draft, and wisely paid far out of slot to get the talented Boras client. Arrieta has a fantastic mid-90’s fastball with a vicious slider, and has dominated Advanced-A competition this season prior to his trip to Beijing with the US Olympic Team. He put up impressive performances both in the Futures Game and the Olympic Games, cementing his status as a top pitching prospect in the organization. Arrieta is coming up as a starter in the minor leagues; however there is a chance that he might eventually be suited to be a closer in the majors.
5. Brandon Erbe – I wrestled with this pick, bouncing between Brandon Erbe and Brandon Snyder. You can read Falco's ATH Report on Brandon Erbe here. I’m a big Snyder fan, but Erbe right now is the better prospect as his ceiling is far higher. Erbe has potentially dominant stuff and he bounced back very well off of a disappointing (to put it nicely) 2007 season. Brandon is a strikeout/fly ball pitcher and despite his penchant for surrendering the home run, he is only 20 years old and has plenty of time to develop. If he can continue to improve and develop the consistency he has been lacking, the sky is the limit for this kid.
6. Brandon Snyder – Brandon Snyder has been a feel-good story this year, as he has put up excellent numbers despite facing strong doubts about his status as a prospect. You can read my previous Prospect Report on Brandon Snyder here. One of the issues that prevented Snyder from taking the five slotting on this list is the fact that his bat does not currently show the power necessary to stay at first base long term. He has a short swing, solid defense, and improving power. How that power develops and whether he can build on this year’s success will dictate exactly where this former first-rounder will end up.
7. David Hernandez – Like Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez is a strikeout/fly ball pitcher. You can read my earlier Prospect Report on David Hernandez here. Hernandez grades out distinctly lower than Erbe because his stuff, while electric, is not as electric as Erbe’s, does not have as high a ceiling, and is older by three years. Hernandez bounced back strongly this year from a shaky 2007, and while that does significantly improve his standing as a prospect, how he comes out next season will be the litmus test as to how far he really has come as a pitcher. Hernandez most likely will find his niche in the bullpen in Baltimore, but as a starter he has improved his control and was the ERA and strikeout leader on a stacked Bowie rotation this season.
8. Nolan Reimold – Nolan Reimold is something of a polarizing figure among scouts, and I’m not entirely sold on what I think of him as a prospect myself. You can read my previous Prospect Report on Nolan Reimold (doesn’t this sound like a broken record?) here. Reimold will be 25 at the start of the 2008 season, so this is the time for him to make a move to the majors. Reimold’s swing holds a great deal of power, but he does not have a superior eye at the plate and has been very slow to make adjustments through both single games and the season. There is a great deal of questions as to whether or not he’ll be capable of handling major league pitching, but we’ll find out soon enough.
9. Chorye Spoone – The only reason that Chorye is so low on this list is because of his shoulder injury this past season. It is not expected to be a long-term problem, but whenever you lose a year of development (mid-season this year to approximately mid-season next year) there is cause for concern. Assuming that Chorye returns to form, he will skyrocket up this list. He holds a dominating sinking fastball, a plus curveball and improving changeup. His command has been inconsistent, but he does have the potential to be the best better than any pitcher on this list.
10. Billy Rowell – Rowell has to be in the top ten if for no other reason than raw talent. Unfortunately, Rowell has failed to significantly develop that talent (at least in any tangible way) this season. Even after a very strong finish this year at Frederick, Rowell ended the year with a .248 BA and only 7 home runs. The negatives on Rowell have been his attitude, lackadaisical defense, and a long looping swing. Billy will be 20 going into next season (presumably at Frederick again) so he has plenty of time to work on those issues. If he can correct his attitude and take coaching to correct his swing he can reclaim his status as an elite power hitting prospect. He has the frame and the natural ability to be that elite prospect, but unless he makes those corrections we could be talking about him being a big first round bust pretty soon.

And now the bonus 11-20!
11. Troy Patton – He could end up being a top-10. I don’t personally know what to expect, all I know is that he was the centerpiece of the Tejada trade and was a much talked about prospect before his shoulder surgery. He should be ready for Spring Training next year; about that time we’ll see where this guy really projects.
12. Brad Bergesen – Fantastic year, set the Bowie record for wins and providing the one bright spot pitching-wise for the Baysox during their disappointing playoffs this year. You can find my previous Prospect Report on Brad Bergesen here. He’ll start next year at Norfolk, and we’ll see whether his style (location rather than pure stuff) will succeed against superior bats.
13. Zach Britton – Britton has shown steady improvement and thus is steadily rising in the ranking of prospects in the Orioles’ system. You can read my Prospect Report on Zach Britton here. There’s a lot to love about this 20 year old groundball southpaw, but he still struggles occasionally with command, particularly with his breaking pitches.
14. LJ Hoes – LJ Hoes is a personal favorite of mine. A local product of Bowie, Maryland, LJ was drafted out of high school in the third round of the 2007 MLB draft. You can read the Prospect Report (written by Expatriate) on Jerome ‘LJ’ Hoes here. He had an excellent professional debut with the GCL Orioles, showing a surprisingly advanced knowledge of the strike zone and plate discipline. Complement that with his superior athletic ability, and you set the foundation for a lot of future success. He is still very young so you certainly cannot rank him any higher, although I’m certain that others reading this will object to my putting him as high as I have.
15. Greg Miclat – An excellent pick by the Orioles in the fifth round of the 2008 MLB draft, Miclat took a long while to sign but stepped into an excellent situation. The Orioles needed a legitimate shortstop prospect, and Miclat has provided them with one as all reports are that his shoulder injury suffered in college has fully healed. Miclat is a plus defender and has often been compared to Brian Roberts in his ability to spread the ball to all fields and dominate on the base paths. He won’t ever hit for power, but as a leadoff man he has what you would look for in average, plate discipline, and speed.
16. Bobby Bundy – Bundy was a key sign for the Orioles, who selected him in the ninth round of the 2008 MLB draft. Bobby Bundy is out of Sperry High School in Sperry, Oklahoma and was considered one of the better high school pitching prospects in this year’s draft. His mechanics are solid, and has an excellent breaking ball to complement his low-90’s fastball. Where he is in relation to professional competition is as of yet undetermined, and we’ll see next season where he’s at by how he performs.
17. Garabez Rosa – I wish I had more information on this little-known prospect. He smashed pitching in the Gulf Coast League, although he does not know the meaning of the word ‘walk’. A free swinger, Garabez does an excellent job of making contact and has shown some power. Again, statistics can be deceiving in rookie ball, but he’s gained enough intrigue to sneak into the top-20.
18. Jim Hoey – This has been a lost year for Jim Hoey, but assuming he comes back from strongly from his injury this season (and he is on track to do so), he can be an excellent future late reliever. I do not believe, based on previous performance, that he has the mentality to be a closer despite having the pitches to do so. This 6’6” right-hander has the high-90’s fastball and biting slider you look for in a late reliever, so his name is one you don’t want to forget moving forward.
19. Luis Noel – Luis stormed onto the map this year at Delmarva. He was inconsistent, particularly down the stretch, but he showed flashes of what could be a very good arm in this system. Noel, a 20-year old right hander out of Haiti, needs to improve his command because when he loses games it is by the walk. He showed the ability to beat any team in the South Atlantic League when he didn’t beat himself.
20. Blake Davis – Blake Davis will never blow you away with his bat or statistics, but he is a slick fielder who plays hard every play. He draws rave reviews from his manager this year at Bowie, Brad Komminsk, and might find time in Baltimore this year. After watching Blake at Bowie this season I can say that he is an excellent fielder, but I do not believe that he’ll be able to make it long-term in the major leagues at the plate.


(Photo Credits: Wieters/Snyder (Doug Koontz), Brandon Erbe (insidethewarehouse.com), Chorye Spoone (The Examiner via Frederick Keys))

Doctor Andrews Goes to the Farm

Or more accurately, part of the Orioles farm has gone to Dr. Andrews. One of the Orioles’ top pitching prospects, Chorye Spoone, has undergone surgery by Dr. James Andrews to repair a slap tear in his right shoulder, according to the Baltimore Sun. The injury does not appear to be a long-term concern, and Chorye is expected to be back pitching sometime in midseason 2009.

I know to most people this seems as somewhat minor news, but I felt compelled to write on this. Since I started doing my prospect reports I have wanted to do a report on Spoone because he is both a local prospect and has arguably the greatest upside of any pitcher in the Orioles farm system. A native of Pasadena, Maryland, Chorye Spoone leapt onto the map last season in Frederick, where he accumulated a 3.26 ERA with 133 strikeouts in 152 innings pitched. Through that season he also held opponents to an even .200 BA and held an impressive 2.67 GO/AO ratio. He has a mid-90’s sinking fastball with a vicious curve. A groundball pitcher who can strike you out. He’s shown up in the big moments, if you count back to back complete games in the Carolina League playoffs as showing up big. If you can’t tell, I like the guy a lot.

I wanted to just take this time to say, don’t forget about this guy, Baltimore. He’s not a lock to be a great major league pitcher, no one is, but he has all the potential to be dominant. Best of luck to you in your rehab Chorye, we look forward to watching you in Bowie when you come back next year.

Note: Apologies for missing the Prospect Report last week; this Thursday I’ll be ranking the top prospects from the O’s system.

(Photo Credit: Tom Priddy, MLB.com)

Cleveland Indians Prove Their Pathetic Ways

In the Double-A Eastern League playoffs, the Orioles affiliate Bowie Baysox are facing off against the Cleveland Indians affiliate Akron Aeros in the first round. Tied 1-1 in a best of five series, Game 3 was played in Akron. David Hernandez was in trouble early, down 2-0 in the bottom of the 2nd with the bases loaded a two outs. The next batter hits a grand slam to right-center. This Aero? Travis Hafner.

Yes, that Travis Hafner. The one who landed on the DL back in May with a shoulder injury. The one considered one of the best power hitting first basemen in the American League.

He was on a rehab assignment in Akron, and this was his first game with them.

Forget the fact this is legal. The Indians are in third place, 10.5 games out of first, they have no prayer of getting to the playoffs. Many players in both Bowie and Akron have been there most of the time, let them fight for their playoffs! Don't cheapen them by putting a guy like Hafner there, who kills major league players, when you don't have a shot at the wild card.

You don't see the Orioles rehabbing anyone there right now. And they have people that could. Chris Ray is still recovering from his Tommy John surgery and recently pitched for both Frederick and Aberdeen. George Sherill is close to coming off the DL, he could be down there. The Baysox are known for their bullpen trouble, Ray and Sherill could've helped. Maybe Adam Jones could have taken a little longer to recover and played in Bowie. But the Orioles didn't. The only roster change they made was to bring up Brandon Erbe, but that is much different, you are bringing up a player who was only pitched against the Single-A league. Maybe it wasn't intentional, but the Orioles didn't cheapen Bowie's playoff run by putting professionals there, they allowed the Baysox to play on their own.

The Indians cheapened the Aeros possible playoff run by putting Hafner there. At least let your Double-A team play, keep their spirits up for the future. By looking at the Indians, they may need it. Shame on the Cleveland Indians for this move, it may be legal, but it is classless and cheapens what could have been an interesting series with baseball pride on the line. They don't need Hafner to rehab there, less than a month of the MLB season is left, and the Indians won't play in its postseason. If you want to rehab Hafner, play him in the fall or on the Indians.

Game 4 for the Baysox is tomorrow, and they are down 2-1 to Akron. Let's hope they pull it off, and let's hope Hafner doesn't get more "rehab" time.

(Photo credit: ESPN)

Prospect Report - Zach Britton

This time, let’s take a trip down to Delmarva… The Bowie trio of top-line pitchers (Tillman, Hernandez, Bergesen) have gotten the headlines this year, but Delmarva has a rising trio that’s going to be making some waves in the coming years. This trio consists of Zach Britton (12-7, 3.12), Sean Gleason (12-2, 2.63), and Luis Noel (10-8, 3.96). Of these Zach has separated himself as the premier prospect of the three due to his draft position, age, and overall effectiveness this season. In a full season at Delmarva this year, Zach has held opponents to a .219 batting average with an unbelievable groundball ratio of 2.81 GO/AO. His groundball tendencies have lead to him only giving up nine home runs in 147.1 innings pitched this season (that roughly equals one home run for every eighteen innings he pitches).

So, who is Zach Britton? Zach Britton is a 20 year-old left hander who stands at 6-2 and weighs 170 lbs. The O’s chose to draft Britton in the third round of the 2006 MLB Draft out of Weatherford High School. He has a rough start to his professional career in 2006, where he got hit around for a 5.00 ERA in going 0-4 in 11 starts for the Bluefield Orioles. Zach Britton took a big leap up in 2007 with the Ironbirds however, going 6-4 with a 3.68 ERA. In his 15 starts with the Ironbirds he also dramatically improved his K:BB rate from 21:20 with Bluefield to 45:22 with the Ironbirds. He’s continued his steady improvement this year at Delmarva, as shown by across-the-board progression in all significant statistical categories.

Strengths: Britton’s greatest strength is in his ability to induce groundballs. One of the more underrated abilities in baseball, being able to get groundballs both keeps the ball in the ballpark and erases baserunners with the potential for a double play. Britton, as mentioned before, has compiled a 2.81 GO/AO ratio at Delmarva and .5 home runs per nine innings pitched. Britton’s fastball usually stands between 88-92 mph, but he occasionally can ratchet it up to as much as 94 mph on occasion. He complements that fastball with a decent changeup which he has used extensively back from his high school days and an improving slider. While being primarily a groundball pitcher, he also has shown the ability to miss bats, as he has accumulated 114 strikeouts with the Shorebirds.

Weaknesses: While he commands a good fastball and decent change, Zach’s breaking ball is average at best. If he hopes to make it as a starter he can’t simply rely on two pitches to get by. He can get away with a few poorly thrown breaking balls at Delmarva, but when he advances to higher levels those hanging breaking balls will be hammered and reduce his pitch selection to simply fastballs and changeups. In fairness to Zach however, he has shown the dedication to improve that slider and that improvement has shown this season. Also, while Zach is able to miss bats, he also has issues with missing the strike zone. His walk rates are improving, but still not where they need to be to reach his potential.

Projection: The thing that gives the most hope for Zach Britton is that he has gotten better each time he has moved up to superior competition. This makes it easier to be optimistic in projection, as he doesn’t appear as a prospect who will get stuck in any one level for more than a year before somehow appearing with the big league club. However, keep in mind that the upper level pitchers (ideally) will be pitching at Camden Yards by the time he reaches AAA. It’s for that reason that I feel he will have a steady advance with one year at Frederick, one with Bowie, and a full season at Norfolk before getting a chance with the Orioles. Britton will stay at Norfolk after the 2011 season, but will be called up sometime in the 2012 season to pitch out of the bullpen or fill in for an injured starter.

Prospect Report - Nolan Reimold

On popular demand (Falco), next up is Nolan Reimold, who has long been one of the headline power-hitting prospects for the Baltimore Orioles. Lost in the magical starting pitching of his Bowie Baysox and the meteoric rise of Matt Wieters has been the steady power bat of this right fielder. Nolan Reimold has played between the 4th and 5th hole in the lineup for the majority of the 2008 season. After years of being slowed by injuries, Nolan is looking to break into the bigs this September and to take residence in left field in Camden Yards.

So, who is Nolan Reimold? Nolan Reimold was first drafted by the Orioles early in the second round of the 2005 First Year Player Draft out of Bowling Green. Nolan was the MAC Player of the Year in his senior year, and upon drafting immediately became the Orioles premier power prospect, being ranked the O’s 4th best overall prospect at the end of 2005. After blasting out of the gate in 2005, he was set on the fast track in 2006, beginning the season at High-A Frederick. At Frederick Nolan struggled at times with his swing, batting only .255 for the season and striking out 107 times in 415 AB. Reimold still belted 19 homers that season, making the Futures team as a backup. In 2007 Reimold was set off track, suffering an oblique injury early in the season, limiting him to only 50 games with the Bowie Baysox, where he batted .365 with 11 homers. Fully healed with some extra playing time in the Arizona Fall League, he came into the Spring hoping for a shot at making the club in Spring Training; the chance did not come, but this season he has presented a strong case to management that his star isn’t fading. As an everyday player, Nolan Reimold has played in 134 games with the Baysox this season, hitting to a .282 average with 22 home runs.

Strengths: Nolan’s biggest strength is his ability to hit for power to all fields. He has an ideal frame (6’4”, 209 lbs) for a power hitter and does an excellent job of using that leverage in his swing. Complementing that size is surprising speed on the base paths and a very capable defender in the outfield. His stolen base numbers (7 SB in 134 games this season) certainly don’t leap out, but those numbers can be somewhat deceptive. He is a very capable right fielder, and has shown the capacity to play center and left. If he intends to play in Baltimore, certainly that versatility will be necessary to get him to that goal.

Weaknesses: From his drafting, Nolan Reimold’s biggest problem has been his high strikeout rates. This can be attributed to a few factors; (1) maturing knowledge of the strike zone, (2) time lost due to injury, (3) impatience. This season he has cut down on those strikeouts and has improved plate discipline, but certainly this will need more work moving forward. His swing has some holes still in it, and the onus will be on Nolan to make those corrections as he faces higher pitching. If he does that, his future should be in his own hands.

Projection: Because of injuries, Nolan has too often been looked over this season by the fan base when projecting the O’s future. Of the proverbial ‘five tools’ (power, average, speed, arm, defense) Nolan grades out as no less than average at each one. His power is certainly plus, but there is no one tool that would peg Nolan as a one-dimensional player. It’s in that spirit that I believe Nolan will come up to Baltimore following the Bowie playoff run, and compete for a starting job in Spring Training of 2009. Nolan Reimold will make the club out of Spring Training in 2009.

Prospect Report - Chris Tillman

Good to be back on the prospect reports, and certainly good to be talking about a brighter future for the O’s pitching staff. Chris Tillman has lived up to his top prospect status this season, and is en route to a commanding finish as he attempts to bring Bowie back to the playoffs for the first time since 1997. Last night Tillman was strong again, pitching six shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Following a rough patch in late July many were saying he had hit a wall for the season, but has come roaring back in August with a 1.88 ERA in four starts, with a K/BB ratio of 36:6 in 24 innings. On the season, Chris Tillman sports a 9-4 record, posting a 3.32 ERA with 139 strikeouts (2nd in the Eastern League behind only teammate David Hernandez).

So, who is Chris Tillman? Chris Tillman stands at 6’4”, and at 20 years old is the youngest starting pitcher in the Eastern League. Chris Tillman last season was the Seattle Mariner’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and came over to Baltimore in the blockbuster Bedard trade. Regarded as a first round talent coming out of high school, he fell to Seattle in the second round of the 2006 Amateur Draft. In his first season Tillman thrived in Rookie ball but fared poorly at Short Season Everett, still collecting a high strikeout rate of 13 K/9 IP. 2007 represented a similar pattern for the right hander, as he thrived initially at Class A Wisconsin, but struggled at Advanced-A High Desert where he posted a 5.26 ERA in 102.2 innings. Going into the offseason Tillman was rated by Baseball America as the third-ranked prospect for Seattle Mariners. Tillman was then traded to Baltimore in the famous trade/heist that sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners for five players (Jones, Tillman, Mickolio, Sherrill, and Butler).

Strengths: Certainly there is no shortage of positives for this young right hander, but his biggest strength in my opinion has to be his delivery. Chris Tillman's delivery is smooth and repeatable, drawing rave reviews from scouts and coaches alike. His delivery is so fluid in fact, that people would gather around during O’s Spring Training just to see him throw. This repeatability will prove invaluable moving forward, in his consistency, his ability to adjust, and in reducing the risk of future injury. He sports two plus pitches, a 91-93 mph four-seam fastball which can touch 95, and an excellent 12-6 curveball. He’s also shown advanced maturity for his age, as he’s been by and large one of the most consistent starters in Bowie and has shown the ability to make adjustments.

Weaknesses: Tillman, while sporting two plus pitches, has not as of yet established a third or fourth quality pitch. In high school he began to utilize a splitter, but has been by and large a two-pitch pitcher for Bowie this year. While he should be able to get by on those two pitches, to reach his potential as a top starter he must establish at least a third pitch. Chris also has been occasionally susceptible to the long inning; although this could be attested to youth, only time will tell whether this becomes a significant problem or not.

Projection: The future is bright for Chris, and at worst he projects as a third starter in the majors. His ceiling, provided he can widen his repertoire, could be as a staff ace. He will remain at Bowie for the playoff run, and will start next season at AAA Norfolk. Barring a sensational season performance at Triple-A the organization will be cautious to not rush him to the majors. Chris Tillman will enter the starting rotation out of Spring Training in 2010.

Prospect Report: Brad Bergesen

For my third installment I initially looked to profile a hitter, such as the young L.J. Hoes or near-ML-ready Nolan Reimold. However Brad Bergesen, as he has done with the entire Orioles organization, has forced people to take notice. He has been quietly dominant this season, currently holding a 13-3 record at AA Bowie with a 2.68 ERA following his early season promotion from High-A Frederick. Those thirteen wins incidentally, tie the Baysox club record for wins in a season. With the O's pitching woes (to put it lightly) in the majors he has been the subject of conversation regarding a possible promotion to the big club. He did nothing to quell those rumors this past Tuesday when he treated the home Bowie fans to a complete game shutout against visiting New Britain.

So, who is Brad Bergesen? Bradley Bergesen stands at 6'2" and 205 pounds, and was born in Concord CA. Brad was drafted straight out of high school in the 4th round of the 2004 MLB Amateur Draft and signed quickly that July. Through the early parts of Bergesen's progression through the Orioles minor league system, he went through a stiff adjustment period when moving up in level. After a strong finish at Aberdeen in 2005, Brad struggled at Delmarva in 2006, going 5-4 with a 4.58 ERA. His season ended early that year as he was diagnosed with mononucleosis in early August. Bergesen rebounded strongly in 2007 at Delmarva where he tore through A-ball hitters in 15 starts, posting a 2.19 ERA and .214 average. Later in the season he was promoted to High-A Frederick where he struggled again, as hitters batted well over .300 against the right hander. Brad, as in 2007, bolted out of the gate in 2008 and dominated High-A before coming up to Double-A Bowie. Unlike last promotions, however, Brad Bergesen has stepped up in a big way against superior competition and continues to hold down offenses and pitch deep into games.

Strengths: Without a doubt Bergesen's greatest strength is his command. In 117.1 innings this season at Bowie he has allowed only 20 walks, leading to a ratio of 1.5 walks per 9 innings pitched. Even in some of his struggles last season, Bergesen only walked 26 batters in 150.2 innings. He utilizes his command to keep the ball low, and has thus become an excellent groundball pitcher through his career, holding a 1.68 GO/AO ratio currently this season. There is no doubt that Brad's future is as a starter rather than in the bullpen as he has excellent control of four pitches; a two-seam fastball, four-seem fastball, slider, and changeup. Another encouraging sign this season is that Brad has improved his velocity, with his fastball ranging from 90-92 mph, occasionally hitting 93.

Weaknesses: Although Bergesen has full command of four pitches, the prevailing opinion is that none of his pitches are above average. Combined with the fact that Bergesen keeps the ball in the strike zone there is some concern over whether or not he will be able to handle major league hitting. Bergesen will most likely rely heavily on guile to get by in the major leagues. If he doesn't hit his spots and keep the ball down, he's liable to get hit around pretty hard.

Projection: While many are calling for Bradley to be in the rotation later this season, don't bet money on it. The Orioles organization knows that he often takes awhile to adjust to each level, so it is far better to let him work his way through AAA before trying to attack the major league level. In that spirit, expect him to get a callup to Norfolk before the end of this season instead (with Hayden Penn most likely moving to the majors, but that's for another report). Brad will get a shot at making an impression on the staff next year at Spring Training, but expect him to start 2009 in Norfolk and most likely stay there through the end of August barring a major need in the big club. He will be in the rotation in 2010 at the latest.

(Photo Credit: Bowie Baysox)

Prospect Report: David Hernandez

For the second prospect report I want to highlight a pitcher who has been something of a Jeremy Guthrie for Double-A Bowie. David Hernandez, a 23-year old right hander, has dominated the Eastern League this season with a 2.65 ERA but holds a mere 5-3 record in 20 starts. Hence the Jeremy Guthrie comparison. Over his past seven starts he is 1-2, allowing 7 runs in 41 total innings (1.54 ERA), striking out 42 while walking 23. David has surpassed what were already elevated expectations by the Orioles organization and is making his push as a premier prospect in the O's system.

So, who is David Hernandez? David Hernandez was drafted in the 16th round of the 2005 Amateur Draft by the Baltimore Orioles out of Consumnes River Community College (CA). David stands at a height of 6'3", and came out of junior college as an athletic player with potential for growth. So far he has grown somewhat better than anticipated this year, as he has improved in nearly every facet from last year at Advanced-A Frederick to this season at Double-A. David has seen his ERA lower from 4.95 to 2.65, Opp. AVG from .249 to .210, and has managed to increase his endurance in what is a significant step up in the quality of hitters. His finest career moment came in the Carolina League playoffs last year in which he struck out 18 batters in a single game.

Strengths: Hernandez's strength is in his two plus pitches, his fastball and slider. His fastball typically runs 90-93 mph, occasionally touching 95 mph. That fastball has excellent movement leading to high strikeout totals and the ability to miss bats while staying in the strike zone. Early in his minor league career David developed a slider which has arguably become his best pitch with excellent break. Hernandez's steady improvement throughout his minor league career is another significant plus, as he has consistently stepped up his game to superior competition.

Weaknesses: Hernandez's weaknesses are much of what you would expect from a young power pitcher, in that he is occasionally wild (K:BB ratio of 120:52) and is often the victim of the big inning. That strikeout-to-walk ratio is one of the few statistical categories in which he has not been able to improve from last season in which he held a 168:47 ratio. One of the factors that significantly contribute to these walk totals is the lack of development of his third pitch, his changeup. In order to be a successful starter in the Major Leagues David will need to establish that third pitch.

Projection: How and where David Hernandez projects hinges on his ability to establish his changeup as a legitimate pitch he can throw for strikes. If he fails to develop that pitch he can still have a successful career but he most likely would find his niche in the bullpen rather than the rotation. With his progression expect him to finish this season strong at Bowie, and start 2009 in Norfolk's rotation after an extended stay in Spring Training with the big league club, breaking the major league roster sometime between April and June.

(Photo Credit: Will Bentzel/MLB.com)

Prospect Report - Brandon Snyder

For our first prospect report I present to you Brandon Snyder, first baseman for the Frederick Keys who has far and away been the hottest hitter in the Carolina League over the past two weeks. He is currently riding a 17 game hitting streak and five straight multi-hit games. For the season the 21-year old right-hander is batting .310/.342/.482 (AVG/OBP/SLG).

So, who is Brandon Snyder? Brandon Snyder was the 13th overall pick out of high school in the 2005 draft, originally selected as a catcher. After a hot 2005, in 2006 Snyder struggled in low-A ball, ending the season with a torn labrum, ending his term as a catching prospect. From this injury Brandon had to move over to first base, and his stock as a prospect plummetted in the eyes of most fans and scouts. In 2007 Brandon fought back from the injury at Delmarva, gradually improving in what was an average season. His true entry back into the limelight came in the Hawaii Winter League in which he led the league with a .378 batting average. After a slow start this year at Advanced-A Frederick, Brandon has found his stroke and has been hitting the daylights out of the ball.

Strengths: Snyder has developed a very aggressive approach at the plate, but he is making it work for him. Brandon has the ability and the willingness to stroke the ball to all fields with developing power. There is some debate as to just how much power he can develop, but as a 21-year old he has hit 7 home runs on the year for Frederick and given his steady improvement in power (OPS has risen from .573 to .774 to .823 between 2006 and now), that shouldn't be a very large concern. Brandon has average defense at first, and many scouts feel he has a good enough arm and footwork to play third base. However, with Rowell at third base at Frederick Brandon Snyder has been limited to first.

Weaknesses: Strikeout to walk ratio is by far the biggest offensive concern for Brandon. In 284 at bats this year he has a 51:13 strikeout to walk ratio, very roughly a 5:1. While he has a good enough bat to afford the low walk totals for now, it is a concern moving forward. With quality coaching and experience the problem could be alleviated, however much of that aggression that makes him successful leads to the strikeouts. The other main weakness is his lack of speed on the basepaths, but that is acceptable for a corner infielder if the bat is sufficient.

Projection: Brandon Snyder is one of my personal favorite stories, because he came back against alot of negativity and early failings to make such huge strides as a player and a prospect. At 21 (22 in November) he is certainly young enough to warrant patience. Look for Brandon to move up to Bowie either late this year or at the start of next year, and possibly get time at third base. With a full year at Bowie, expect him to be in Baltimore in 2010.

Looking at the Future

I'll go ahead and introduce myself, I'm windsor and one of the things I'll be doing is periodically reporting on the O's minor league teams and, in particular, their prospects. I'll forgo babbling about myself (I'm sure everyone is very disappointed) and get right to it.

Setting the stage for future posts I want to paint a general picture of the Orioles farm system, overviewing its strengths and weaknesses.

The strength of the Orioles farm system is by far it's pitching talent and depth. This isn't the farm system of your youth, boys and girls, it has improved by leaps and bounds from past years in the pitching department. There is a good deal of debate as to how the prospects stack up against one another within the system, but in my estimation there are six pitchers who can be considered "upper level" prospects. These include: Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Chorye Spoone, Brandon Erbe, Brian Matusz (upon signing), Jake Arrieta, and possibly Bradley Bergesen who has emerged from relative obscurity (2.53 ERA and a 10-2 record through only 14 starts at Bowie this year). This list excludes other pitchers who could grow into major contributors (Tim Bascom, Luis Noel, Hayden Penn, among others). In short, pitching is in vogue.

Out of vogue (?) is hitting, unfortunately. The one blue chip position prospect is Matt Wieters, who has exploded in his first season both behind and at the plate. Other notable prospects include Nolan Reimold who has made a strong case for a callup to the majors, Brandon Snyder, Billy Rowell, and Luis Montanez (although he is 27 years old). There are a littany of mid-level prospects, and the organization is hoping that someone outside of Reimold and Wieters (particularly Snyder and Rowell) step up in a big way this season.

Moving forward I'll be giving periodic prospect profiles and players on the rise and the decline.