O's Rotation Set For Another Shuffle

Well, at least once a month for the past several seasons O's fans have faced this question: what do we do with our struggling starter(s)? The current situation has reached a breaking point with the struggles of young Jason Berken, and the epic decline of Rich Hill. Both Berken and Hill put up poor efforts against the Yankees, with Berken giving up 5 runs in 6 innings, and Rich Hill giving up 5 runs in 3 innings. These are not isolated occurences either, as both have struggled mightily for the past few weeks (save for a couple bright spots here and there), and the O's were hoping one would step up in their recent starts to avoid this tough decision. Does one of them go? Do both of them go? If so, who replaces them?

Well, in my opinion Rich Hill has to be the one to go. While he has more wins than Berken (inexplicably), he won't give you near the innings that Jason Berken will. Rich Hill has such an unorthodox delivery that when he's not spot-on to start the game he has supreme difficulty making adjustments. By contrast, Berken can make some adjustments to move further in a game, as evidenced by him finishing his last start with four shutout innings. Rich Hill doesn't have any options, but I can't think of any team in the majors who would be willing to put him on their major league roster. Rich Hill only has one good pitch, his curveball, and because it's effectively his only pitch he becomes way too predictable. And anyone who's watched him pitch knows that he can't rely on his fastball like many want him to, because it is exceptionally flat with little to no movement. I know I'm being harsh on the guy, but it is what it is.

That being said, I'm convinced that the club will try to put him through waivers (and he will pass through) and keep Berken for the time being. I think that Berken's finish from the last start is enough to think that he at least has the right mental toughness to have a shot at rebounding. To back this up further, the Baltimore Sun has already reported that Trembley and MacPhail will meet on Friday to discuss what to do with Rich Hill.

So who replaces Hill? There are actually a couple of ways to go-- Chris Tillman or David Pauley. Yes, David Pauley is a legitimate option even though O's fans don't pay much attention to the possibility. David Pauley was brought in to provide just this kind of depth at Triple-A, and he has performed admirably at Norfolk to the point that he would be a very sound call-up. Calling up David Pauley would allow Tillman more time at Norfolk and keeps Tillman's service clock from ticking. However, I do believe that Chris Tillman should (and will) be called up to replace Rich Hill in the rotation.

While I said at the start of the year that Chris Tillman should spend all of this season at Norfolk, his play has altered that plan. It's not because Tillman has dominated Triple-A competition in his recent starts, it's because he has dominated Triple-A throughout this entire season. Too often the Orioles bring up players simply because they've shown a hot streak; this is not one of those instances. Tillman has sustained his dominance and has rarely had two bad games in a row. His ability to make adjustments quickly, throw strikes, and the rave reviews from coaches at all levels tells me that he's as major league ready as he'll ever be. And almost as important as that readiness is the fact that he's ideally lined up for a major league debut. Now that he has been pushed back a day at Norfolk (curious, no?), his start lines up exactly with Hill's next Tuesday at home against the Royals. There is no better place to insert a young pitcher than at home versus a mediocre ball club (knock on wood). Assuming that his start tonight goes well, it's hard to think that the club will let this ideal situation slip by.

Certainly I understand patience, but I really think that this is the time and place to bring up Tillman to replace Rich Hill. Plus, I was hoping to go to Tuesday's game anyway, which doesn't hurt.

Looking at the Farm: Snyder moves up, Matusz/Tillman honored, Brandon Erbe recovering

Hello everyone -- apologies for the lack of Prospect Reports, but I've been having difficulty finding time to get myself to Bowie or Frederick recently. Regardless, I expect to be back doing them soon(ish). This week however I would like to talk about some of the things happening in the O's system, because it remains as the bright spot for O's fans everywhere. Certainly after being swept by the Marlins, the O's faithful can enjoy looking to the future.

1. Brandon Snyder makes the move to Norfolk -- Yes, yes, yes, this is old news (Falco is going to get mad when he sees that I'm writing about old news, but oh well). Still, it's important that I take some time to address this as so many people are late to the game in recognizing Snyder's rise to legit prospect status. For those of you who read my Prospect Report last season, it was apparent that the writing was on the wall for Snyder to make a big time comeback. He's one of the feel-good stories in this organization, having rebounded strongly from a shoulder injury which appeared to derail his career. He still has the high average at the plate, like last year, but he has improved vastly in his ability to stay off of bad pitches and it has shown in his improved OBP. His power stroke is starting to develop as indicated by his 10 home runs in 201 at-bats for the Baysox, and after a slow start at Norfolk he is now hitting a clean .280 in 25 at bats. Keep an eye on this kid, he will be in Baltimore sooner than you think.

2. Matusz and Tillman selected to pitch in the Futures Game -- These two top prospects for the Orioles have been selected to pitch for Team USA in the Futures Game, and now the Orioles have had four pitchers in the past three years invited to the game. This represents a quantum leap for the organization, and gives fans alot to look forward to. As of right now, I can say that Chris Tillman is putting more and more pressure on my assertion that he must not be exposed to the majors this season, as he has continued to show the poise and professionalism that led to his domination of AA hitters last year. Brian Matusz seems to be on the Wieters timetable, but either way it appears that these two will undoubtedly be in the Orioles rotation early next season. No, the future is not now. But it's coming quick.

3. Brandon Erbe on the mend -- I'll keep this short, seeing as I'm writing this on my lunch break. But it's important for O's fans to keep an eye on Brandon Erbe who is looking to continue his rehab tonight at Aberdeen, returning from shoulder fatigue which kept him out after only starting four games for the Baysox. In those four games Erbe was nothing short of brilliant, striking out 19 while walking only 8 and posting a ridiculous 0.90 ERA. Brandon Erbe is a local boy from Owings Mills, and he's got the sort of stuff to translate into a big-time starter for the O's down the line. How he is handled with this delicate situation now could have big ramifications on whether he reaches that potential.

He's Back.......Erik Bedard against O's on Tuesday in Seattle

For the first time since the infamous trade that dealt him to Seattle in 2008, Erik Bedard will be facing the Orioles on Tuesday. It has been over 15 months since the deal. The game is in Seattle. Bedard had normally been out when scheduled against the Orioles last season.

The big deal had the Orioles shearing a lot of the sheep of the Mariners. Among the players sent to Baltimore included Adam Jones, the future star centerfielder, George Sherill, the Orioles closer, and Chris Tillman, a current top prospect and bigtime starting pitcher in the farm system.

This year, Bedard has been showing his stuff of old. In his nine starts he has fanned 54 batters with just 15 walks and a 2.48 ERA. But he is facing similar problems when he was with Baltimore; he has a 3-2 record. Very often he is not getting run support. But he is still showing his stuff.

This is quite the reunion between Bedard and the Orioles. Bedard did not seem happy in Charm City, especially in his final year with the O's. After Andy MacPhail got here, he needed to rebuild the farm system, and with Bedard being a relatively low paid pitcher with the possibility of being an ace, the O's shopped him around and found a suitor in Seattle. MacPhail also traded Miguel Tejada, but this deal was the headliner. When asked about the game today, Bedard told the media, "Seeing the guys again, I'll try not to laugh."

This is also a reunion for the other traded players. Seattle was an extremely disappointing team last season, and Adam Jones and Chris Tillman were two of the best prospects in the system that were lost in the trade. Though Tillman is still in the minors, Jones has been shining for the O's. But him coming back more is the reminder of last season. Last year Seattle was supposed to compete in the American League, and the acquiring of Bedard was supposed to push them over the top. Instead, despite a large payroll, the team lost over 100 games as saw the firings of GM Bill Bavasi and manager John McLaren. Though it happened yesterday and not today with Bedard pitching, in some ways it was just as important.

David Hernandez will be on the mound for the Orioles. After a huge game from Rich Hill on Monday, the Orioles look for the series win today. But the reunion between the two is finally here. It should be an interesting game.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

To Orioles Fans: Be Patient

It has been a while since we've posted here, but don't worry, we are back. We all are just busy, but hopefully once things get a little more steady we will be back in full force.

With this, it has been nice for the Orioles lately. They won two out of three in the Battle of the Beltway with the Nats and they won the Memorial Day matinee with Toronto. But, with people are getting hurt and with the release of Adam Eaton, more rosters moves are being made. Jason Berken has been called up and will start today for the Birds. For info on him, check out Windsor's Prospect Report on him. Berken has done very well in his five starts with Norfolk this season, going 2-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 16 strikeouts to six walks.

But one thing that has been occurring is the fans are getting more impatient. Attendance for the Orioles is down, and many people want to see Matt Wieters and the big three pitchers in the majors. 11 losing seasons about to be 12 is upsetting fans. Many were wondering and hoping if Chris Tillman was coming up in the roster, one of the big three pitchers. Especially with the initial successes of Brad Bergeson and Nolan Reimold, who were not the highly touted people, we should bring up the bigger names, right?

But to all Orioles fans, we need to be patient, and wait this out.

In this day and age, we have all come to a "football mentality" of we want things happening sooner rather than later. It is especially frustrating when the Orioles have had losing seasons numerous years and the AL East is routinely beating Baltimore. But Andy MacPhail is right not to rush anyone that is very important, mainly Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta. Bringing them up now will not make the Orioles a competitive team when they are not ready will only hurt their chances to reach their potential.

In the past, the Orioles have had issues bringing up farm system players too quickly. Daniel Cabrera and Jeff Fiorentino come to mind. Cabrera had all the potential in the world to be a dominating fastball-changeup pitcher, even many opposing general managers felt so, but was brought up from Bowie in 2004 after less than a full season there. He had some bright spots, but he never established control and is now off the roster. Jeff Fiorentino was another player with great potential as an outfielder. In 2005 when the team needed outfielders, he was brought up from single-A Frederick, and although he played all right, he never got to his potential. After bouncing to a couple teams in 2008 he landed back on the Orioles, but he is not expected to be a major part of the Orioles future. He is currently in Norfolk batting .254.

The Orioles will not be competitive if they bring up any of the four above players, and they can't waste their potential. Bring them up when they are ready. Likely Wieters will be up this year and at least Tillman will join be the start of next season. But MacPhail is doing the right thing and being patient with these players.

We need to be as well. It is hard, but being patient with the young Birds is the way to go. But for now, let's celebrate the successes of the ones that have come into the majors, and good luck to Berken today.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Rotation Issues Already Forming in Baltimore

It has been a great start for the Birds, winning their first three series, considering the bullpen and rotation issues. However, the Orioles were hoping the "stopgap rotation" would hold a little longer than this, but the injury to Alfredo Simon has already forced the O's to dip into the Tides for some help. While Simon has not yet gone to the DL, recent moves make it seem that he'll be out a little while.

According to the Baltimore Sun and MASN, the Orioles have bringing up Matt Albers and Radhames Liz after Melvin Mora was sent to the DL and Simon will have his shoulder checked. It would not be surprising if Brad Bergeson was brought up as well from the Tides. Bergeson has done a great job in his first two contests in Norfolk, striking out nine and just allowing three earned in 11 innings, but these are his only two starts in triple-A play, and there is no telling if he'll be ready to come up to Baltimore.

We all expected the Orioles rotation to be an issue this season. Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara were seen as the only reliable starters, so the rest of the rotation was up for grabs, which was won by Simon and Mark Hendrickson with Adam Eaton filling the last spot when needed. The Orioles, though feeling it would eventually happen, were hoping to avoid using Norfolk players to fill gaps already. The bullpen has been very scary to the O's, but they have at least been able to hold large leads. The starters have done a good job for now, especially Guthrie.

The overall key to all of this is to protect the potential stars of the rotation. Under no circumstances can the Orioles bring up Chris Tillman because they need to wait until he is ready, and since he is not on the 40-man roster this probably will not be an issue. Players like Bergeson, Liz, Chris Waters, and David Hernandez could be called up sometime this season as stopgaps. This is just the beginning of the season and the Orioles can't risk their big players just because of a nice start. First they need to ready their big pitchers and Matt Wieters. They'll compete as best they can, but don't get too excited about the start. The might of this rotation is about to be tested. But for now and for all the issues, the O's have won their first three series.

(Photo credit: AP)

Jeremy Guthrie Named Opening Day Starter For Orioles

The Orioles have named Jeremy Guthrie the Opening Day starter according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. He did this last year and will faceoff against C.C. Sabathia when they host the Yankees on April 6th.

Guthrie has spent most of his spring training with the U.S. WBC team, but he barely pitched at all. Now back in uniform with the Orioles he has struggled getting into his groove. Koji Uehara was thought to be the best pitcher so far in spring training, but the Orioles will stick with their ace Guthrie and start him Opening Day.

With so many questions about the Orioles rotation, Guthrie will need to be back to form. The fact is this rotation has a lot of arms but nobody standing out that will be in the rotation. The O's don't want to throw their top three pitching prospects into the fire yet, them being Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta, but in order to ensure that the Orioles don't bring them up yet, they need their stopgaps to perform. Having a solid ace will easily help matters. A lot of support will be needed from Guthrie and Uehara in order to lead the rotation successfully.

(Photo credit: AP)

Prospect Report - Chris Tillman

Good to be back on the prospect reports, and certainly good to be talking about a brighter future for the O’s pitching staff. Chris Tillman has lived up to his top prospect status this season, and is en route to a commanding finish as he attempts to bring Bowie back to the playoffs for the first time since 1997. Last night Tillman was strong again, pitching six shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Following a rough patch in late July many were saying he had hit a wall for the season, but has come roaring back in August with a 1.88 ERA in four starts, with a K/BB ratio of 36:6 in 24 innings. On the season, Chris Tillman sports a 9-4 record, posting a 3.32 ERA with 139 strikeouts (2nd in the Eastern League behind only teammate David Hernandez).

So, who is Chris Tillman? Chris Tillman stands at 6’4”, and at 20 years old is the youngest starting pitcher in the Eastern League. Chris Tillman last season was the Seattle Mariner’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and came over to Baltimore in the blockbuster Bedard trade. Regarded as a first round talent coming out of high school, he fell to Seattle in the second round of the 2006 Amateur Draft. In his first season Tillman thrived in Rookie ball but fared poorly at Short Season Everett, still collecting a high strikeout rate of 13 K/9 IP. 2007 represented a similar pattern for the right hander, as he thrived initially at Class A Wisconsin, but struggled at Advanced-A High Desert where he posted a 5.26 ERA in 102.2 innings. Going into the offseason Tillman was rated by Baseball America as the third-ranked prospect for Seattle Mariners. Tillman was then traded to Baltimore in the famous trade/heist that sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners for five players (Jones, Tillman, Mickolio, Sherrill, and Butler).

Strengths: Certainly there is no shortage of positives for this young right hander, but his biggest strength in my opinion has to be his delivery. Chris Tillman's delivery is smooth and repeatable, drawing rave reviews from scouts and coaches alike. His delivery is so fluid in fact, that people would gather around during O’s Spring Training just to see him throw. This repeatability will prove invaluable moving forward, in his consistency, his ability to adjust, and in reducing the risk of future injury. He sports two plus pitches, a 91-93 mph four-seam fastball which can touch 95, and an excellent 12-6 curveball. He’s also shown advanced maturity for his age, as he’s been by and large one of the most consistent starters in Bowie and has shown the ability to make adjustments.

Weaknesses: Tillman, while sporting two plus pitches, has not as of yet established a third or fourth quality pitch. In high school he began to utilize a splitter, but has been by and large a two-pitch pitcher for Bowie this year. While he should be able to get by on those two pitches, to reach his potential as a top starter he must establish at least a third pitch. Chris also has been occasionally susceptible to the long inning; although this could be attested to youth, only time will tell whether this becomes a significant problem or not.

Projection: The future is bright for Chris, and at worst he projects as a third starter in the majors. His ceiling, provided he can widen his repertoire, could be as a staff ace. He will remain at Bowie for the playoff run, and will start next season at AAA Norfolk. Barring a sensational season performance at Triple-A the organization will be cautious to not rush him to the majors. Chris Tillman will enter the starting rotation out of Spring Training in 2010.