Can Anything Be Done About the Rotation?

What we all believed would be the problem with the Orioles in the beginning of the season has come front and center. The starting rotation has been very bad lately, and there is no solution in sight.

Here is what the Opening Day rotation was, and where they are now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: still a starter, 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA (6.86 on the road)
--Koji Uehara: has not been bad when healthy, but often could not go longer than 6 innings a game and is always hurt
--Alfredo Simon: needed elbow surgery after two bad starts, out for the year
--Mark Hendrickson: relegated to the bullpen after many bad outings, but has become a decent long reliever
--Adam Eaton: released after posting an 8.56 ERA in eight starts, now playing for Colorado Springs Sky Sox, Rockies Triple-A club

And the rotation now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA
--Brad Bergesen: a solid starter this season, 5-2 record with a 3.53 ERA, 4-0 in last eight starts
--Rich Hill: mostly bad outings with a few exceptions, 3-2 record with a 7.43 ERA, only twice going over 5.2 innings
--Jason Berken: may not be ready, 1-5 record with 6.25 ERA
--David Hernandez: only five starts but ok right now, 2-2 record with 4.15 ERA

It is no doubt that the rotation has been real problematic. Without Bergesen and solid work from the bullpen, the whole pitching staff could be lost. Certainly it was thought the rotation would struggle, but the difficulties with Guthrie and Uehara made things much worse.

But can anything really be done about it right now? As we often tell ourselves, the Orioles are not in contention right now. Not matter what deals can be done, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays will likely be better. Signing a number of free agents likely will not help matters plus will cost millions of dollars. Trading also won't work, as you will not get anyone good and ready to go without giving up one of the big three, which is not an option, and Andy MacPhail will not do that.

The Orioles can keep tapping into Norfolk all they want, and that is what they will do. Already from the Tides came Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Radhames Liz, and Alberto Castillo from the pitching end plus Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Lou Montanez, and Oscar Salazar in the lineup. The Tides pitching staff has been real helpful to the Orioles, and they still have some people left, but eventually the Birds will need to stop bringing people up, if only because they will run out of them. Left that could help now are David Pauley and Chris Waters, but after that, the rotation will need to function on their own.

This whole situation is difficult for the Orioles, but it is one they will need to get through. Mainly because nothing really can be done about it unless the current pitchers can do better. Let's hope they do.

(Photo credit: AP)

Rotation Issues Already Forming in Baltimore

It has been a great start for the Birds, winning their first three series, considering the bullpen and rotation issues. However, the Orioles were hoping the "stopgap rotation" would hold a little longer than this, but the injury to Alfredo Simon has already forced the O's to dip into the Tides for some help. While Simon has not yet gone to the DL, recent moves make it seem that he'll be out a little while.

According to the Baltimore Sun and MASN, the Orioles have bringing up Matt Albers and Radhames Liz after Melvin Mora was sent to the DL and Simon will have his shoulder checked. It would not be surprising if Brad Bergeson was brought up as well from the Tides. Bergeson has done a great job in his first two contests in Norfolk, striking out nine and just allowing three earned in 11 innings, but these are his only two starts in triple-A play, and there is no telling if he'll be ready to come up to Baltimore.

We all expected the Orioles rotation to be an issue this season. Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara were seen as the only reliable starters, so the rest of the rotation was up for grabs, which was won by Simon and Mark Hendrickson with Adam Eaton filling the last spot when needed. The Orioles, though feeling it would eventually happen, were hoping to avoid using Norfolk players to fill gaps already. The bullpen has been very scary to the O's, but they have at least been able to hold large leads. The starters have done a good job for now, especially Guthrie.

The overall key to all of this is to protect the potential stars of the rotation. Under no circumstances can the Orioles bring up Chris Tillman because they need to wait until he is ready, and since he is not on the 40-man roster this probably will not be an issue. Players like Bergeson, Liz, Chris Waters, and David Hernandez could be called up sometime this season as stopgaps. This is just the beginning of the season and the Orioles can't risk their big players just because of a nice start. First they need to ready their big pitchers and Matt Wieters. They'll compete as best they can, but don't get too excited about the start. The might of this rotation is about to be tested. But for now and for all the issues, the O's have won their first three series.

(Photo credit: AP)

Free Kicks

Your Free Kicks are coming a day late this week, but I figured y’all had to hear about the Bowie trip before it was no longer relevant. They won again last night, so I suppose one of the Orioles teams is headed to the playoffs. As for the one in Baltimore, well we know that is a slightly different story. The hype over the Ravens quarterback situation continues to balloon out of control to the negligence of defensive questions, the US took bronze in their last Olympic game until at least 2016, and all I want to do is line up for the kick.

If My Word Processor Sees the Word “Bullpen” One More Time, it will Explode.

Not that the O’s are playing badly, but last night’s loss was a giveaway. The Orioles consistently had opportunities to score early in the ballgame and simply did not put up the numbers they would need to overcome an exhausted bullpen. Moreover, Trembley made a key error in taking Radhames Liz out of the game with 2 outs in the 5th inning. Let Liz finish the inning, especially as Alex Rodriguez was 0-2 so far that game. Despite giving up the two consecutive solo shots, Liz was still utilizing different pitches in different places in the count, particularly with his 3-1 changeup. Last night’s performance should be considered a step forward for Radhames, who might perform just well enough to be the band aid the pitching staff needs for the rest of the season.

Keep Your Eye on Fabian Washington…

…because he will be your starting cornerback at some point this season. Much is being made of the offense, which has been riddled with injuries along the offensive line, tight ends, and even wide receivers, not to mention hampered by inept quarterback play (I am still a Troy Smith fan, but no one will save this offense). However, not enough is being made of the problems on defense. Remember, we have been saying that Samari Rolle is on his last legs for the past two years now, and Chris McAlister sat out half of last season with various injuries. As we saw last year, Corey Ivy is not the answer. Fabian Washington is the most likely candidate to step up, and Coach Harbaugh will have to hope that he finally can live up to first round status. The defense lacks much depth and with a few injuries (caused partially by the exhaustive time they will have to play with an offense unable to hold onto the ball) they could crumble down the stretch.

Best in the World? Not Quite.

I am one of those who threw my hands up in anger and anguish when baseball and softball were voted out as Olympic sports, but now looking back I can understand why baseball went that way. Frankly, the Olympic committee knew they weren’t getting the best talent in the world. Don’t get me wrong, I loved seeing Jake Arrieta out there, but he is the best America has to offer? No. Give me Michael Young tossing to Brian Roberts who fires to Mark Teixeira for a double play on Ichiro Suzuki and Kosuke Fukudome. But you won’t see that because the Olympics take place in the middle of baseball season. What is out there is simply not an accurate representation of the best team in the world- which the Americans would not necessarily win.

As for softball, this will be rectified sooner rather than later, especially with the US loss this Olympics to the Japanese. It seems as though the US dominance had doomed Olympic softball, with critics claiming there was no competition to the American squad. Ironically, the loss by the best team in the world might have saved the sport in the long run.

Déjà Vu

Or, I think I’ve heard this before somewhere… I’m sorry everyone but something very strange is happening. It’s been very uncanny recently, I keep hearing sports stories that I could swear I must have heard somewhere before. Possibly in a dream… (a bad one)

(1) The Orioles desperately need a fourth (and fifth) starter, tempted to bring up a young buck before his time. (2) The Terps, because of his fantastic practices, make the unpopular decision of naming Jordan Steffy their starting quarterback. (3) The Ravens have a tough decision (or indecision, if you choose to look at it that way) at the quarterback position.

Now let’s put them in perspective, and try to lose the angst (not to mention headache) brought on by each strangely familiar story.

Where oh where is the pitching?
The struggles of the O’s pitching staff have certainly been well document. Now that Garrett Olson has been removed from the rotation in what is regrettably a necessary move, the Orioles are left with only three starters. THREE. And the third? Chris Waters. No offense, but that’s a lot of pressure for a rookie who has only had one quality start, albeit against the best team in baseball in his debut. So where do the Orioles go from here? Simply put they need to go to Hayden Penn for- what? He’s injured and most likely shut down for the year? There’s that funny feeling of déjà vu again… isn’t it creepy? In all seriousness, the Orioles are only left with the option of dipping into the farm system, as there are no bullpen arms to insert into the starting staff(Lance is too necessary in the rotation and JJ is now the closer, so there’s that.). The O’s most likely options include Andy Mitchell (not a prospect, more of a stopgap option a la Chris Waters), Radhames Liz, Brian Burres, Bradley Bergesen, and David Hernandez.

O’s management has played their minor leaguers, for the most part, far better than in previous seasons. Despite the struggles of Liz and Olson, both callups were the right move at the time. Olson was dominating AAA and Liz had made significant strides (though again, they had originally wanted to bring up Penn and give Liz more time). For that reason I doubt they go straight to AA for their fourth starter. Andy Mitchell might be a safe move, but I’m leaning toward the organization bringing back up Liz for the fourth starter’s role. For this Friday’s start (when they will need the starter) Liz will be on regular rest, and he’s coming off of a dominating performance at AAA. There is something to be said for momentum, and keep in mind when he originally came up from Norfolk this season while he was on a roll he started exceptionally strong. I can see the O’s bringing up Brad Bergesen as a fifth starter. I wouldn’t agree with this move, as major league hitters will absolutely hammer him if he does not keep the ball down. He does not have room for error; I’ll leave further elaboration on Bergesen to Expatriate, who has a scouting report from Bergesen’s Sunday start. Also shameless plug, you can reference my earlier prospect report for a more detailed breakdown.

Jordan Steffy? But… but why??
College Park is famous for sports riots. But rarely before school has started. Message boards and sports show call-in lines have exploded as of late, as the bulk of Terp fans have conducted a riot of sorts in wake of the announcement of Jordan Steffy as starter. There is no question that Jordan Steffy is a fantastic guy and has had some terrible luck. But last year he was named the starting QB coming into the season over the popular Florida transfer Josh Portis, and disappointed in the regular season. While he took care of the ball effectively, Jordan far too often settled for check downs and was indecisive on taking the ball deep. A common opinion was that while Jordan could manage a game, the team could never be great with him at the helm. After he suffered a concussion, the second of his career, Chris Turner exploded onto the scene and enamored himself with College Park fans.

But consider the flip side; it’s easy to forget that Chris Turner faded badly down the stretch, despite the victories against Rutgers and Boston College. While head coach Ralph Friedgen has not accomplished enough to be beyond reproach, he certainly would not put in a quarterback he didn’t think could win. He would catch very little flak for starting Turner or Portis instead of Steffy and unlike last year there was no unspoken understanding that it was Steffy’s turn to take over. Coach Friedgen repeatedly expressed frustration at Jordan’s inability to take the ball deep in games, and one can only think that he has seen enough to feel that that has changed.

Jordan Steffy has all the tools to be a very good quarterback, and this year represents a fresh slate. Terp fans should give him a chance; after all, it’s about the team winning, not about ‘being right’. Riiiiiiight?

Who’s willing to hang on to the hot potato?
“Hot potato, really? That’s the pun you’re going with?” Yes, I am. Because both times a Ravens quarterback has been given the limelight of starting this preseason they’ve thrown it away, let’s be very honest. As of yet neither Troy Smith nor Kyle Boller has shown that they want this job when the chips are down. There’s no doubt that both of them want it, but it’s about performance. You do have Flacco in the mix, but the coaching staff has made it relatively clear that he will be holding a clipboard to start the season. Kudos to the organization on that, it is possible to learn from mistakes.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Troy Smith must be the starter to begin the season. Yes; Kyle has looked better in practice, and is certainly the better pure thrower. However, this season the team needs a leader they can believe in, and a quarterback who can mask deficiencies in his supporting cast (O-Line anyone?). The team’s confidence in Troy (and lack thereof in Boller) has been the most poorly kept secret in Baltimore. Neither will set the league on fire, but Smith has the versatility and leadership to elevate the team.

Let’s try to keep our heads up and take a deep breath. This time it could be different. Wait, haven’t we heard that be– oh forget it.

(Photo Credit: AP, Nick Wass)

Off-Day Musings

With the O's (save for Georgie) taking a much-needed break, this gives an opportunity to settle on a couple topics.

Radhames and the Rotation -- Expatriate has already addressed this issue but I feel it warrants some additional consideration. As of right now it would not be feasible to send Liz down to the minors, because let's face it, who would replace him? Not Hayden Penn, who even when not on the DL has had inferior numbers at AAA. Certainly not one of our hot Double-A starting pitchers such as Brad Bergesen or David Hernandez; Bergesen started the year at Frederick and although he has torn through Double-A he hasn't proven it for nearly long enough, and David Hernandez is brilliant but raw just as Liz was/is last year/this year. By sending Liz to the minors and bringing up a Hernandez or a Bergesen we ask for the EXACT SAME problem to develop as it becomes evident that we've rushed yet another promising prospect. And the final option (other than Trachsel-esque FA pitcher or a trade) would be to use Jim Johnson, but that would make the now legendary Albers hole in the 'pen pale by comparison.

In the end, we need to let the young guy work it out. Stick him as the fifth starter, skip his spot occasionally to keep the other starters on normal rest, easing some pressure. Let Kranny work with Liz and get things figured out. Remember -- he has the arsenal of pitches to be very successful - Plus fastball in both movement and velocity, along with an improving slider and change-up. Radhames is the best option we have, and he deserves nothing less than the utmost patience, because he's giving it everything he has.


Keeping Perspective -- Just a short blurb here, guys. Everyone remember where this season began? What the expectations were? This has been a fantastic first half, especially considering the cards that this team has been dealt. Trembley has shown that he can handle a delicate balance of veterans and youth, and although he's had some managerial growing pains with handling starters deep in ballgames, the overall bullpen management has been far better than his predecessors. People know where they stand, know their role, and he sets the right tone. Hopefully the team can stay competetive in the second half-- if the team stays competitive down the stretch, a certain free agent (TEX TEX TEX) might be more inclined... Although now, I might be losing perspective.

(Photo Credit: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Flamethrower Liz Quickly Being Put Out

I know this was rough, but tonight’s 12-1 shellacking at the hands of the Boston Red Sox gives us a chance to reflect on tonight’s starter for Baltimore who looked to be aiming his fastball at the press box rather than home plate. I am going to look over the two predominant schools of thought on Radhames Liz, to figure out how to best utilize this pitcher who can seem so promising at times but falls completely flat all too often. So take a deep breath, forget what you saw tonight, and try to think about the future- at least until tomorrow.

Most analysts consider Radhames to be more of a long-relief candidate, someone whose endurance is a definite question that lead him to the bullpen. They note that Liz has yet to go beyond 6 1/3 innings in any of his appearances and tends to struggle the later he gets into games, even into the 4th or 5th inning of an otherwise solid appearance. On the other hand, they will point out that Liz has a fastball that clocks in the upper 90’s that can blow right by hitters. Combine this with a serviceable changeup and this would seem to indicate that down the road Liz could be ideal as a 6th or 7th inning candidate and hold onto leads after a starter goes shorter than expected.

There are a couple serious problems with this argument- it assumes both a problem that I don’t think Liz has, and assumes a strength that I don't think he has either. This season Liz has thrown 669 pitches over a total of 35.2 innings; an average of 18.76 pitches per inning! Liz does not have difficulty pitching a high number of pitches; he has a difficulty getting a high number of outs from those pitches. This isn’t surprising from anyone who has watched Radhames this season as he has walked 22 batters and appears to lose his cool with runners in scoring position.

Why then would anyone pencil-in Radhames as a relief pitcher down the road? No matter how his control improves, you won’t likely ever be able to rely on him not to give batters a free pass in key moments of a ballgame. If you add his lack of composure at key moments, I don’t conceive of how I could trust him to enter a ballgame after the starter puts runners on 1st and 2nd and hold a 2-run lead.

I tend to side with the second school of thought- like many fireballers with limited control, they are pulled into the majors long before they are ready by General Managers salivating over his fastball while it is still trying to find the plate. Liz was pulled up to the majors with disastrous results last year, and it seems to be happening again. The Orioles would rather not have another Daniel Cabrera on their hands and wait three or four years for him to get his fastball in for strikes when he could just as well go down to the minors for a year or two and come back. Remember O’s fans- Liz has starter potential, and a struggling starter does not equal a good reliever.

If the Orioles can find a replacement (which may be difficult given the lack of long relievers- you miss Matt Albers more every day, huh?), Liz should to be sent down to Norfolk soon, before his confidence and what’s left of his command is lost for good.

(Photo Credit: Winslow Townson, AP)