Eyeing the 1st Pick on the MLB Draft

Today is the first day of the MLB Draft, and also for Andy MacPhail to work. Obviously a farm system is built through the draft, but most picks are important. The Orioles have the 5th pick in the draft.

Looking over the first round draft field: This is a very pitching heavy class, primarily from high schoolers. Only a few position players have a chance to break the top 15. Steven Strasburg is expected to be taken first overall by the Nationals, but their is plenty of solid arms behind him.

Possible position targets with the 1st pick:
Starting Pitcher: A farm system never has enough starting pitching, even the Orioles. The Orioles have had mixed success looking for a starter in the first round. Getting Brian Matusz seems to be working out, but getting Adam Loewen did not. Starters can go one of two ways in the draft, you could draft a high school player as a four-five year project, or a college player expecting to play in the majors within two or three seasons.
Possible targets for starting pitcher:
--Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats: A power pitcher with a big fastball and a deadly sinker, Crow refused to sign with the Nationals in last year's draft. Could be a wildcard due to this, but expected to go top-10, with many believing top-5.
--Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS: A solid starter with a good fastball and reliable off-speed pitches. Obvious risk going on a high school player, but Matzek is considered by many as the top high school pitcher in the draft, and should go top-10, possibly top-5.
--Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints (formerly Fresno State): A strong fastball-changeup pitcher has great potential, but is coming off shoulder problems from last year and did not sign with the Pirates last year after being drafted in the second round. A high-risk player with high reward chances, and will probably go top-15.
--Zach Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS: A raw talent righty with an excellent fastball and potential in other areas. A number of possible risk factors, but with time could develop as a big starter. Will go top-10 most likely.
--Ben White, RHP, North Carolina: A starter with a wide array of pitches that make him a strikeout machine. He does have control issues and can be inconsistent, but his upsides are great. Was preseason top-5, but may have fallen to 6-15 range.

First baseman or other top position player: The main weakness of the Orioles farm system is its position players, primary at the infield corners.
Targets for position players:
--Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, North Carolina: A very consistent player with great power and contact, plus can play outfield and first baseman. However, it is very likely he will not fall to #5, but the Orioles should take him if he does.
--Donovan Tate, OF, Centerville HS: A smart player with great speed and great defensive abilities. His bat will be the focal point, as there are questions with contact and potential power. Should go in the top-10, but where exactly is a question.

Shortstop: The Orioles do not have anyone in the farm system considered a long term solution at shortstop with the possible exception of Blake Davis. A good shortstop is very hard to come by, and as Baltimore knows very well, is a very important defensive position.
Targets at shortstop:
--Grant Green, SS, USC: A quick shortstop with very good contact and can place the ball well. Not much power and will need to work on defensive skills. Pre-season was top-10, but may have fallen to the 11-15 range, so the pick may be not be worth getting Green.

Prediction:
Because Ackley will be off the board by #5, I believe the Orioles will target a pitcher and take advantage of the big arms of the draft. Also because of the success of other pitchers in the farm system, it may be worth it to target a high schooler for the long term. I believe at #5 the best player to take will be Tyler Matzek, and let him grow into the system as a project. As Andy MacPhail has said, "Grow the arms, buy the bats."

Around the Harbor Prediction- Orioles 1st Round: Tyler Matzek

Adam Loewen signs Minor League deal with the Blue Jays

Former Orioles first round pick Adam Loewen has signed with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Loyalty. That is what the Orioles gave Adam Loewen. When they signed him in 2002 they handed him a $4.02 million contract and extended him an annointed place in the franchise. Injury after injury the team showed patience in his recovery, particularly this season. Every trip to the disabled list was joined with hopes for a recorvery again and a rise to the top of the O's rotation. He was the man of the future for the city of Baltimore. When his arm finally gave out for the last time, there was disappointment, but no complaints. The fan base understood, and rallied behind Adam once again wishing for a possible return to the majors some day, this time as a position player. I will spare you the rest of the mournful backstory, but the fact of the matter is that his history in Baltimore was long and marked with setbacks but constant patience and consideration.

The Orioles released Loewen earlier this week with full expectations of resigning him to a minor league deal. In fact, Adam even cleared waivers on his way to signing on to a minor league team in the O's system. As a free agent Loewen was allowed to sign with any team, but it appeared to be a formality that he would sign with Baltimore again. Instead his home country allegiance to Canada drew him north to sign with Toronto.

It is hard to be angry at Adam, but I am. I don't care what his childhood dream was. I don't care whether money was an issue or not. This is a unique case- Loewen as a starter gave this city nothing due to his injuries, but the organization gave him every ounce of consideration and care throughout his stay in Baltimore. They greeted his decision to give up pitching with a hopeful attitude, setting up meetings with hitting coach Terry Crowley and putting him in the instructional league to work on his hitting. The city of Baltimore and the Orioles fan base were optimistic that they would one day have their own Rick Ankiel...

...and after all that, at the first chance he gets, he bolts for north of the border without leaving so much as a thank you note.

You're welcome, Adam.

Adam Loewen is Gone from Baltimore

The Baltimore Sun reports that Adam Loewen has been released by the Orioles today. Loewen had been trying to come back to the majors as a position player after constant arm injuries ended his pitching career.

Most of us saw this coming. Loewen was a former 1st round pick and was expected to be a star in the making, but after all the injuries, he couldn't continue on the mound, and has been trying to go the hitting route. But the Orioles decided to release him. Most likely, barring a great comeback with another organization, Loewen will never return to the majors.

This is proof that nothing is certain from the Draft. Anything can happen to high picks, and you have to plan according with the farm system. Loewen had a promising future, but he never panned out.

But more, you have to feel bad for Loewen. He was a very good kid and made a hard but smart decision to stop pitching. I just hope he'll be all right in the future, I'd hate to see this kid's career end like this.

(Photo credit: MLB)

The Lesson of Adam Loewen

Last season, Adam Loewen was one of the few players the Orioles considered key parts of the Orioles future. He was walking a number of batters, but few could hit his stuff. He won two of his first four starts. The only problems he had were fixable: get him to pitch more than six innings a game.

Now, the Orioles are trying to salvage his career.

The Canadian sensation was the Orioles first pick in the 2002 MLB Draft (4th overall) and didn't take too long to reach the majors. But injuries took away a possible strong 2007 season and now his pitching career. Loewen suffered a stress fracture in his left arm, his pitching side, and surgery is estimated to have taken 18 months if he chose to take it. Really, it isn't worth it, 18 months is a long time and there is no guarantee that he'll return to form.

The injury of Loewen shows the importance of depth in pitching. The Orioles were hoping Loewen would be part of the Orioles future; not surprising when you draft him in the first round. The Birds have suffered many injuries at pitching, including Matt Albers for the year this season as well as Chris Ray and Danny Baez needing Tommy John surgery last year.

A team can't expect to run with just five starters and a six/seven member bullpen all season and win. Just ask the Yankees (not Hank, who would blame Girardi and A-Rod and everyone that isn't him). You need to have depth in triple-A to be able to replace players that get injured or go through slumps. The Orioles triple-A system isn't strong, hence why pitchers like Radhames Liz (4-2, 7.19 ERA) and Garrett Olsen (6-5, 6.11 ERA) have to stay here; the Orioles don't have anyone to replace them effectively.

As the rebuilding process continues, Loewen's injury shows how much work Andy MacPhail and the Orioles need to do before real results can get done. Depth in the farm system needs to continue growing and future stars (like Nick Markakis) need to be signed to long term deals. As Orioles fans have always been told, this will take a while.

(Photo credit: Major League Baseball)

Sunday continues to haunt the Orioles

Hello everyone, I'm Falco, and welcome to the Around the Harbor sports blog. I'm the most traditionialist of us three, given my fascination with sports history. I'm probably the biggest lacrosse fan of us three, given I freelance for Inside Lacrosse, but baseball is by far my favorite sport. But like most sports fans, I'm very opinionated.

The Sunday curse struck again for the Orioles, as they lost 11-10 to the Texas Rangers despite a valiant 5-run comeback attempt in the final two innings. The Orioles now have fallen to 1-13 on Sunday games, and 44-43 overall. Only thing I would question with the O's is the use of shortstop Freddie Bynum, who would go 0-3 and made a terrible throw to destroy a double play opportunity, which prolonged the 5-run Texas 8th inning. Kevin Millar had a solo shot and two doubles on the day.

So we fans couldn't take advantage of the "We Win, You Win" deal where if the Orioles won the game, fans could get a free ticket in the same section in a future non-prime game. I'm not sure which game I would want, but I've wanted to see the new Rays for a while. Do you remember anything like this from last season? The Orioles were bad on Sunday games then as well, but this offer never occured. There really does seem to be a sense of revival among the fans. Considering this was supposed to be a rebuilding year with many "experts" saying the Orioles would lose triple digit games, this season has been a huge success thus far with a winning season and improved attendance. It still is a rebuilding year and the Orioles won't make the playoffs, but a .500+ record at the break would be great.

The Orioles go on the road to Toronto and Boston before the All-Star Break. If Adam Loewen is hurt (he left the Sunday game with an arm injury), then the Orioles don't have a true long reliever for the road trip with Matt Albers out. This will put a lot of strain on the rotation, and they may need to go longer than normal. But if the Orioles can pull out three or more wins, they go into the break with over a .500 record.

(Photo credit: Gail Burton, AP)

Filling the Void

The loss of Matt Albers has left a void in the O's bullpen that's becoming more and more evident. With the young birds' rotation is still trying to find it's way, there needs to be an arm (or arms) capable of shutting down the sixth and/or seventh innings in order to get to JJ and The Sherriff at the back end. So with the recent shuffling of the bullpen, let's whittle down the candidates for his replacement. This is excluding the back end (JJ, Sherrill), pitchers in rehab or DL (Randor Bierd, Jamie Walker), and Ryan Bukvich (if he hasn't been DFA'd by the time this post is made).

-Dennis Sarfate - Next to Loewen and Jim Johnson, Sarfate has the best natural arm in this pen. Sarfate hits 95-98 mph with relative ease with his fastball and has an excellent hard slider. However, Sarfate has a history of wildness (34 walks in 37.2 ip) and thus can be susceptible to the big inning.
-Fernando Cabrera - We haven't seen much of Fernando, and there is most likely a reason. Certainly Trembley will look to give him more opportunities, as both of his appearances have been scoreless this season. However, his reputation of wildness preceeds him and its unlikely that he'll settle into the lockdown middle relief this team is seeking.
-Chad Bradford - Safest guy to lock down the seventh. Balls aren't going to leave the yard with Bradford, and he's not going to get psyched out like some of the younger pitchers. Bradford is a stabilizer, which is exactly what you want. However, he's too valuable situationally to have him etched in to a specific inning. Far better to save the submariner for when you need him -- be it in the sixth, seventh, or eighth.
-Adam Loewen - Certainly has all the tools, the competitiveness, and the ability to go multiple innings without tiring. However, Loewen has had a roller coaster season from injury to poor performance. He has the gifts and the competitiveness, but he's not eased in enough to be relied on here and now.
-Lance Cormier - Probably the most deserving pitcher to get the Albers role. Like Albers Cormier is a former starter who has found exponentially more success coming out of the pen. In his past nine appearances he has pitched 15.2 innings and only allowed 3 earned runs, two of which coming at Wrigley when he was thrust into replacing Albers in the first inning. Of those nine appearances, six were of at least two innings.

Right now smart money is on Lance Cormier, who's been one of the many pleasant suprises this year for the Orioles. And get well soon, Matt.