Ravens' Midseason Forecast

Last year we watched the Ravens play with the thought in our minds that this was a very good team that was just a hair below the elite teams in the AFC. I entered this season wondering whether they could make the leap to the elite level. Unfortunately, they have taken a step back- not just below the Colts/Patriots/Steelers level, but below playoff level in the conference. Don’t get me wrong, this team is still good, but only that. It is easy to look at the 4-4 record and say that of course this team is average as they stand now, but one must look at who their losses have come to. Cincinnati, for all its reputation, is still a division leader, as are Minnesota and New England. By no means are these losses embarrassing, but the idea that this team couldn’t pull out a win in any of these cases in disturbing. I am going to try to take a look at the biggest weaknesses on this team and what will be the difference whether they reach the playoffs or not.

The Secondary: Ed Reed is doing too much and getting hurt in the process, and the troubles of the cornerbacks is well-documented on this blog. While the Ravens have great depth at safety, neither Haruki Nakamura nor Tom Zbikowski are Ed Reed-level safeties. If Reed can’t go, that will be another huge blow to this group. To be honest, the Ravens are not starting cornerbacks who have any history to suggest that they will play better as the season goes on. Unfortunately this Achilles heel should stick around for a while.

The Kicker: One has to wonder whether the Ravens final drive could have been more successful last week against the Bengals if they didn’t have to try to get two scores rather than just one. We will never know, as Steve Hauschka missed yet another key field goal late in the game- and it wasn’t a 48 yarder as it was against Minnesota. He has never been a particularly accurate kicker, and while I didn’t think Stover should have been kept around I didn’t think that Hauschka was necessarily the answer. If a change is made or Hauschka gets his leg or mind straightened out, this could improve as the season goes on.

The Run Defense: I don’t get it. Baltimore used to shut down every running back who attempted to run right at them- now they are being gashed up the middle. This can’t be the result of losing Bart Scott, though revisionist historians would love to say they thought the Ravens should throw the checkbook at him to keep him in town. I worry that Kelly Gregg isn’t playing at his traditional high level, but he has been part of great Baltimore defenses in the past. The only great changes in this defense have been Greg Mattison and a suddenly awful secondary. The logical excuse would be to say that a terrible secondary has led to more players being sent into coverage, but that hasn’t been the case as far as I can see. I can’t explain this, so I have to assume it will get better over the year; but it will have to turn around by Week 12 or Baltimore may want to shop for a new defensive coordinator.

The Offensive Inconsistency: This isn’t going anywhere. So far this season either the defense holds the opponent under 20 points or the offense goes off- but it has only happened at the same time once this season; against the Broncos. I am not sure if this is a problem with execution or with Cam Cameron failing to adjust to certain teams, but the team can change from week to week from humming along to ground to a halt. However, two of this team’s three games where they scored less than 30 points came against the Bengals, who have two shut-down cornerbacks. This goes back to the weakness of the Ravens receivers, who are unable to matchup with elite corners (with the exception of Derrick Mason) and leave Joe Flacco with very few options. With the right matchups at wide receiver, this offense can be successful. When the corners are above average, this team will struggle offensively. Looking at the schedule, this could mean 3 or 4 more substandard offensive days.

The Browns game should go better on both counts, but with the Colts, the Steelers (twice), the Bears, and the Packers left on the schedule, this team will have a lot of work to do to reach the near-clinching 10-6 record needed to have hope of making the playoffs.

Free Kicks

Once again the Ravens preview has taken a backseat to a mountain of work-related activities, but I promise to get back on the horse next week. In the meantime, enjoy some Free Kicks to get you through the weekend. Unfortunately I have to start with the Yankees, so get ready for some extra obnoxious New York fans next season while we line up for the kick…

Yankees Win 27th World Series Title
I won’t go into the popular refrain that they bought this World Series title, though I will say that they are perennial contenders because of that payroll- there is no way that much money doesn’t at least put you in the playoffs. This year they were the best team in baseball, though hardly a great story. Most years there is something to rally behind, and last year was the king of that- you had the Tampa Bay Rays with the first winning season in team history and the Phillies who were carrying a 25 year city-wide title drought. This year you had the Phillies as defending champs and the big, bad Yankees. Sure I was disappointed when the Phillies lost, but it wasn’t exactly a heartbreaker either. I just can’t stand the Yankees. My biggest worry is that the Yankees fans will become even more obnoxious, puffing out their chests even more while the nation-wide band-wagoners trade their Red Sox caps for Yankees caps. Either way it’ll be more misery for us O’s fans.

No Ravens Preview, But Here’s a Prediction
The Ravens will not shut down the Bengals the way they shut down the Broncos last week, but I will bet they do a better job on Cedric Benson, holding him to under 100 yards. As for Carson Palmer, he will get his share of big plays down the field, but I think that the Broncos game was a change in attitude for this defense. It gave them the confidence they need and inspired Greg Mattison to send blitzers more often and make use of the Ravens linebackers. I will take Baltimore’s defense to make a stop when it needs to. The offense has adjusted since its last game against the Bengals, and will be able to score on this defense. Joe Flacco has been incredible in pressure situations, and I will take Ray Rice to have a big game this weekend. The nod goes to the Ravens, 27-21.

Hill, Fiorentino, Rodriguez Declare for Free Agency
Rich Hill will look around, but I doubt that he gets a major league contract. Whether it was his health or his throwing motion (or both) we don’t know, but his 2007 performance is looking like a long time ago. This makes two straight seasons that he has struggled mightily and then, late in the season, said he was pitching hurt all year. I still think he can be a great starting pitcher in theory, but he might just be too far gone at this point. He was hanging every pitch over the plate this past season, and there will be a limited number of teams willing to commit a lot of money on a reclamation project. The best place for Hill is a year at Norfolk, and I hope he realizes it.

As for Jeff Fiorentino, he has been good to the Orioles after they mishandled his development three years ago. He deserves a shot at another team and perhaps become an everyday outfielder on another squad- there is no room in the outfield for Baltimore and he has been a class act since he arrived in the organization. Best wishes to him as he goes to yet another club. The Orioles will find a catcher, Guillermo Rodriguez won’t be missed all that much. Matt Wieters has the position pretty safely locked up.

Prediction for the Weekend:
Well, last weekend I recovered with the Oregon win over USC, bringing me to 2-4 in my dicey predictions. So this week, how about I go back to college football. Navy takes on Notre Dame, and excuse me if I want to go for the Midshipmen. The Irish defense has been suspect to say the least this season, and a well-executed triple option can tear that apart. The risk here is that Navy’s defenders won’t be able to keep up with ND’s explosive skill position players and that their undersized defensive line won’t stand up to the Irish offensive line. I agree that this will be a high scoring affair, but Notre Dame makes every game a close call. The nod goes to Navy, 45-42.

Ravens-Broncos Preview: Taking Down an Upstart Undefeated

I am going to take a different approach to the preview this week- I am going to talk about one major point for each part of the offense and defense (rushing and passing games) and what the Ravens will have to do in order to win. Because after all, isn’t that what we really care about? This team is good enough that if it plays up to its talent in every phase of the game, every game is more than winnable.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

Broncos Pass Offense vs. Ravens Pass Defense
Kyle Orton is an effective but not terrifying quarterback. Compared to the other QB’s the Ravens have had to face this year- Favre, Palmer, Brady, and Rivers come to mind- Orton just doesn’t compare. However, he has tall, strong receivers to throw to who can make any quarterback look good. The key in the passing game is not only going to be the ability of the cornerbacks to contain Denver’s threats in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall, because they won’t, but it will be Dawan Landry and Ed Reed’s commitment to their assignment. I have seen way too much freelancing in the secondary with Reed trying to make plays outside his assignment and Landry biting up on play action. A desperate playmaker will often try to compensate for a weak overall unit by taking more risks- but that often works against the team and allows long touchdowns. The Ravens cornerbacks are not good enough to handle being all alone, the safeties need to be disciplined.

Broncos Rush Offense vs. Ravens Rush Defense
Some have voiced a concern over Tavaris Gooden’s size and whether he is too slight to be an inside linebacker, but I think this is too much worry over making another Bart Scott and not enough looking at what Gooden does well. Smaller, quicker linebackers can be great at stopping the run provided they have the lanes to penetrate to the ball carrier. I have seen Ray Lewis hit too often and taken out of the play, and I put this on the defensive line. Ngata is playing fine, but Kelly Gregg is not the dominating tackle he was two years ago. In the Ravens’ defense, unlike other systems, the DT’s job is not to rush the passer, but it is to occupy the interior offensive lineman and allow athletic linebackers (like Gooden) to penetrate to the running back. That has not been happening, and I see it as the reason that the Ravens have allowed two consecutive 100 yard rushers. It doesn’t matter who carries the ball for Denver- if Baltimore does not control the line of scrimmage, especially inside, they won’t be able to stop the Broncos on the ground.

Ravens Rush Offense vs. Broncos Rush Defense
Ten rushes for Ray Rice? Even against a rush defense like Minnesota’s you need to keep pounding the football just to keep the defense honest. McClain? McGahee? The Ravens made a great comeback at the end of the game, but Joe was being pounded back there when Jared Allen & Co. didn’t have to watch for the run. Flacco was cool under pressure in standing in the pocket despite getting hit, but he won’t be able to keep that up forever. It is okay to run the football once every few plays, Baltimore needs to do what made them great. Despite this, Rice is quickly becoming the next Brian Westbrook with his ability to do so many things on the field, from pass blocking to making linebackers miss in the open field. However, this side of the ball comes down to the offensive line returning to form with (hopefully) Jared Gaither moving back into the left tackle spot and Michael Oher taking his superb play of late to right tackle. That will not only protect the quarterback (as we will discuss later), but it will open up opportunities for Willis McGahee off-tackle rushes or the occasional stretch play to Rice where he could threaten to break a big play. With McGahee and McClain in the fold, Rice has the complementary backs to help him become even more effective than Westbrook, who has suffered being the undivided attention of whatever defense he’s lined up against.

Ravens Pass Offense vs. Broncos Pass Defense
Champ Bailey has rediscovered his old form and Brian Dawkins is showing that he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. If the Ravens try to throw at the Broncos secondary all afternoon, they will turn the ball over. No 43 pass attempts this week, and no dropping back 43 times against Elvis Dumervil at linebacker, who has a whopping 10 sacks so far this season. The Ravens offensive line will have to come together quickly to regain their rhythm and work as a unit to keep the Denver pass rush at bay. Utilizing Todd Heap over the middle could keep the linebackers in a short zone and draw attention away from Derrick Mason. I worry about the passing game if Flacco can’t sling the ball to Derrick Mason on a regular basis. If Champ Bailey can shut him down and keep him to 4 or fewer catches, I don’t see how Joe Flacco will get going. If need be he will find other targets, like Rice out of the backfield (or how about swing Rice into the slot receiver spot after the team lines up and get him matched up on a linebacker?) or Mark Clayton. The key here will be Flacco using all of his weapons and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. Of course, in order to do that his receivers need to get in position and catch the ball. I am still not sold that they can do that.

Special Teams
Okay, so I have never considered this before in the preview (because they were too long already), but I found an interesting statistic that I wanted to pass along. Despite being roughly tied with the Ravens in punting distance, Denver ranks second to last in the league in punt coverage, allowing 14.6 yards per return. Baltimore comes in at 7.7 yards per return. That could wind up being a difference of 7 yards of field position each time the teams trade possessions. This is why Lardarius Webb is so important. Not only will he be called upon to take a greater role in the secondary, he will have the opportunity to put the Ravens in great field position if he can break one. With the way the offense has been performing at times, this could be critically important.

The Rundown

Baltimore can score, but how consistently? The offense went into hibernation two weeks ago for 2 ½ quarters after falling asleep at the wheel for a whole game against the Bengals. Was that an aberration? The defense has shown that its flaws are not cosmetic, but are fundamental shortfalls that will haunt this team throughout the season. Will it hold together long enough to contain Marshall, Royal, and running back Knowshon Moreno? I just don’t think so. People keep saying the Bronco’s aren’t that good, yet they keep winning. The offense will once again have to put up big numbers for this team to win. This game was a really tough one to call, and against my better judgment, here's the pick:

The nod goes to the Ravens, 31-28.

What We Learned: Vikings 33, Ravens 31

Sorry for the delay, but this loss took longer than others for me to digest. Here are my processed and hopefully detached comments on the Ravens-Vikings game. By the way, I did call a 2 point Vikings win, but I didn’t think it’d quite go down like that. I think I would have rather taken the 17 point beat down than a heartbreaker like that, at least when it comes to maintaining sanity.

The Ravens defense isn’t getting any better.
Brett Favre or no Brett Favre, this secondary is awful, which is one preseason prediction that I deeply wanted to be wrong on. It doesn’t matter how fast your cornerbacks are if they can’t cover, just like it doesn’t matter how fast your wideouts are if they can’t catch. Right now, Dominique Foxworth, Fabian Washington, Frank Walker, Chris Carr, and even safety Dawan Landry are just getting front row seats to some blistering passing attacks. How did it occur to Ozzie Newsome & Co. that this was a good group to go into the season with? Landry has been a huge disappointment this year, and Ed Reed has been a nonfactor so far this season. Reed is talented, but I think he is trying to cover the entire field rather than sticking to his side, and it is getting him burned. Stay disciplined, Ed, and they will go to you eventually.

However, the front seven deserves some of the blame as well. They haven’t been as good rushing the passer as their reputation would say over the past few years, and it is showing this season. They were able to harass Favre, but too often their blitzes just didn’t hit home at all. This unit needs to be at 100% in order to compensate for the lapses in the secondary.

Joe Flacco has arrived.
I can’t deny it anymore, I can’t rip him for sailing passes, and I can’t talk about baby steps towards him becoming a top tier QB. He will have bad days, but his poise, accuracy, and decision-making were beyond anything I have ever seen out of a Ravens quarterback. Yes he started slow, but so did the entire offense. The way he hung in the pocket until the very last second in delivering that late-game dump-off pass to Ray Rice was executed to perfection. I cannot recall such a tremendous jump from Year One to Year Two for a QB’s progression, and based on his performance in putting the Ravens in a position to win the game was incredible. His supporting cast consisting of an aging Derrick Mason, a slowing Todd Heap, and a host of skill position players who would be on most teams practice squads hasn’t helped him out much- imagine what he could do with a great set of receivers? Sadly that may have to take second chair to the needs in the secondary this offseason.

This team is the best of the average.
What I mean by that, is the Ravens still can’t deliver a complete game against the top tier of AFC teams, which is disappointing considering that if the defense hadn’t experienced such a massive drop-off this year this team would probably be 6-0. However, this team finds themselves in familiar territory from the last few years- good enough to contend, but not an elite team just yet. Looking at the schedule, I see them playing 5 more times against teams that I would call “very good” or better. Indianapolis, Denver (6-0 will do that for you), Pittsburgh (twice) and Green Bay/Chicago (one of these teams is going to take a leap, I don’t know which one) all will be major tests for the Ravens. You could throw Cincy in that list, but I won’t. Not yet. That said, I still think this team is more talented than, say, the Jaguars, Texans, or Jets, all of which are also 3-3 right now. A lot of things will change in the next few weeks- if Baltimore can reach even mediocrity out of their cornerbacks, this team will go to the playoffs. Perhaps they can watch some extra film over the bye week.

Yes, we should be concerned about Steve Hauschka.

I won’t spend too much time on this, but Hauschka was brought in originally to handle kickoffs and to work on his accuracy. He is still just 1-3 from beyond 40 yards this season, and only won the starting job in preseason because of the spectacular failure of Graham Gano. Distance doesn’t mean a whole lot if you miss the goalposts. It was only one kick, but his track record indicates that there could be a whole lot of “only one kicks” in his future

Free Kicks: Making up for Light Blogging Edition

Alright, so this week has been a bit light on the blogging angle, but hopefully we will be able to rebound next week. Work called for Windsor, Falco and I, so this Free Kicks will try to make up for it. Let’s line up for the kick…

No Preview this Week…
But I will at least take a stab at predicting the game this weekend. Believe it or not, I think that the prime weakness for this team is the defense, just when the offense has come around. This offense has the ability to score, and will tweak things here and there to get the production that the squad did over the first 3 games. The defense has not looked great in any of the 5 games so far this season, and after a certain point one has to look at production of the unit so far. I am terrified of what Brett Favre could do against this secondary, but one also has to wait for Brett to “Favre” a game away at some point this season. With Adrian Peterson running the ball, Favre’s best efforts to lose the game might be a moot point. Offensively, the Ravens could struggle against the Minnesota front 4, especially if Gaither isn’t at full strength. Anytime you have to shuffle the line around to replace a single player there is a big change in chemistry and it is not preferable against a talented group like the Vikings. This may go to Joe Flacco’s arm to win it… and if Aaron Rodgers can’t win it with his arm, I don’t think Joe can. If this was at home for the Ravens, I might look at it differently, but I think the Ravens will find ways to score, but not quite enough. Favre will either make this close or blow this one out; I go for the former.

The nod goes to the Vikings, 23-21.

The Phillies take Game 1 from the Dodgers
Boy, did I ever miss that Dodgers-Cardinals series! Either way, the defending champions are quietly showing the rest of major league baseball that they shouldn’t be overlooked- I have never seen a defending champ so undercovered when they have performed so well this season. While I still worry about the back end of the Phillies bullpen, Brad Lidge is 3 for 3 in save opportunities in the postseason. I still think the Dodgers will come back and make this series interesting (6 games), but I feel like the Phillies are the better team. They have been more consistent throughout the season, they have a deeper pitching staff (which doesn’t count for as much as it should with all these off-days), and have a lineup that one has to respect 1-8. Today’s game will be worth watching if you can get it at its 3:30 start time (Who does that for an MLB playoff game?) when Pedro Martinez takes the mound. Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that Pedro would get the ball for Game 2 of the NLCS. He wanted to play for a contender, and he has helped keep them one. We will see if the veteran has enough in the tank for a strong postseason performance. My bet is he does.

Cincinnati Takes Down South Florida, Boise State Escapes Against Tulsa
The unusual suspects keep marching toward the BCS headquarters, though Boise State has a significantly easier path there. Cincy defeated a very talented South Florida team, though one has to wonder whether Matt Grothe would have been able to put up a better fight against the Bearcats. Having seen both these games, I think Boise State was a bit off their game against the Golden Hurricane, and I think that a malaise could start to form for a team that is expected to win out. For Cincinnati, the Big East is not what it used to be (or ever was), but there are some very good teams in the conference. Pollsters are already criticizing Cincy for their schedule, citing the lack of many ranked teams. However, Pitt and West Virginia could easily be ranked by the time the play Cincinnati. Regardless, neither team has “Oklahoma” or “Ohio State” or “Notre Dame” on their jerseys, so let’s not get too excited. That Rutgers evisceration in Week 1 is looking better and better as the Scarlet Knights have been undefeated since. I don’t like Brian Kelly in the slightest, but I dislike the BCS even more.

Midweek Ravens News and Notes

Coming off of another heartbreaking loss, the Ravens feel a long way off from that "Number One" team everyone was talking about a few weeks ago. With the loss to Cincinnati, the Ravens lost their post as the leader in the AFC North, and Joe Flacco finally looked average. So now standing at 3-2, the Ravens are in a precarious position-- do they win and regain positive momentum? Or do they move to 3-3, and start to look like an average team that just got off to a hot start? Here are some thoughts on some things that might have an impact on just which direction the team takes.

The Tyree signing was fantastic, and not because he's famous. David Tyree was made famous by his legendary catch in the Giants' Super Bowl win, but he's made his living on ace special teams play. Signing Tyree gives the Ravens an immediate upgrade at gunner for special teams coverage, neatly taking the place of Brendon Ayanbandejo who was lost for the season. And certainly this week, against the electric Percy Harvin, the Ravens need that kind of performer.

Derrick Mason takes responsibility for his catchless Sunday. It might've been Joe Flacco, it might've been the play calling, but Derrick Mason finally did the right thing in taking responsibility for his catchless game on Sunday. While the Ravens can't afford for Mason to not show up in the passing game, they even more cannot afford for him to start grumbling as he has in past seasons. Mason is the leader for this receiving corps on and off the field, and this unit needs his fighting attitude to be effective. He rallied the receivers around the negativity coming from the national media early in the season, and he needs to rally again.

Ladarius Webb needs more playing time. I know that he's very unpolished, but the Ravens' soft cornerbacks are getting beaten up consistently and other offenses are taking advantage. Don't put him into complex zone coverage, but every now and again, he could be used very effectively in tight man coverage and jam receivers at the line. Maybe it's change for the sake of change, but this secondary needs it.

What We Learned: Bengals 17, Ravens 14

It was not a goo day for the state of Maryland. No matter where you went, the pain of football was evident, the Ravens lost, the Redskins lost, the Terps lost. In Baltimore this loss was very painful and now many people are in panic-mode. Obviously we are only five weeks in, but with the strength and depth of the AFC, things could be problematic for the Ravens soon, especially with Minnesota coming up.

Things We Learned:
The Reason the Ravens Lost: The Bengals Played Better
It was not the referees or anything like that; the referees were fine. Give all the credit in the world to the Cincinnati Bengals. Their defense stuffed the Ravens offense and allowed next to nothing except one somewhat-fluke Ray Rice touchdown pass. Joe Flacco was constantly being pressured and the running game was not enough to win. Then on the flip side, the Bengals offense was constantly on the attack and led an 80-yard drive to win it all. Had the defense been off the field a little more, then everything for the Ravens might have been fine, but Carson Palmer is too good to be kept down. The Bengals played a great game and legitimately beat the Ravens, no two ways about it.

Conservative Offense? With no McGahee?
Cam Cameron chose a strange time and way to put a conservative offense on the field. Ray Rice did fine, but Willis McGahee saw almost no time on the field, and the Ravens kept running at strange times. Before this, Joe Flacco kept airing the ball, and although the complaint was that he was throwing too much, at least that offense was effective. The offense was terrible, and the reason why the Ravens were in bad shape all game. We hope that Cameron didn't lost confidence in Flacco for the game.

Next Draft: Ravens Need a Cornerback
There is no two ways about it. The current cornerbacks cannot handle the air attacks on the top teams. So far Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Carson Palmer all ripped apart Dominique Foxworth and Co., and next Brett Favre may have the chance. Although the unit is not bad, it is clear the Ravens need a top-tier, tall cornerback to cover the most dangerous receiver.

Ravens Need to be Ready for Minnesota
The Ravens have a problem, they are 3-2 and a number of AFC teams look solid, including two others from the AFC North. 11-5 might not be enough to secure a wild card berth. Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 with a solid passing attack led by you know who. Plus, Adrian Peterson is one of the best backs in the game. The defense will need to be ready plus Joe Flacco will need to get out of the funk; the Vikings will not be generous.

Harbaugh's Ravens are Disciplined
Obviously we are disappointed with the field play plus some of the hits. But after the game, the Ravens were not complaining about the refs or anything like that. They focused on what they did wrong. They know they have to improve, which is a good quality for this team to have.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Ravens-Bengals Preview: Cincy Threatens to Turn Division on its Head

Okay, so I am a little nervous in writing this preview. So far I have been ridiculously off in many of my predictions on this blog, but as far as the previews go I have been pretty solid. I am 4-0 this season up front, and my margins of victory were conservative, even in predicting that the Pats would win by 4. However, the team the Ravens are going up against this weekend is a wildcard. The 3-1 Bengals lost an embarrassing game against the Broncos but aside from that are undefeated, including a last minute drive to upend the defending champions. Baltimore will be charged with cutting down this early-season surprise and realign the top of the AFC North. After losing a game they could have won after last week’s errors, they won’t have room for many more in this division.

What I’m Wondering:

Will these cornerbacks improve?
Man do I ever hope so. They are looking pretty terrible right now, and won’t get much of a respite against a Bengals team that boasts Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco with Chris Henry waiting to take on Frank Walker. If Joe Flacco had that group of receivers, the Ravens could start printing home playoff tickets right now. Instead, Baltimore’s quick but undersized cornerbacks will have their hands full. Ed Reed is so occupied by cleaning up for blown coverages that he can’t make the plays he is accustomed to. Forcing the quarterback to throw is great… If you can stop the pass. The Ravens can’t do that right now.

Will the Ravens return to the run?
They would be very wise to. I believe that Cam Cameron needs to readjust his look back to what the Ravens are more built for- pounding the football. When you average 7.1 yards on the ground, that should be an indication of what the defense is giving you. I understand that the offense has grown to include more things, but it should not exclude what got them here. I have already talked about this before, but for this game, against this team, I will be pulling my hair out if Joe Flacco is dropping back anywhere near 40 times.

Are the Bengals a contender?
To make life difficult on the Ravens and Steelers? Yes. To win the division? No. This team is good, but the defense is too young and lacks true playmakers for Flacco to be afraid of. Yes, they boast the NFL’s sacks leader in Antwan Odom, but we have seen one-season wonders before, and Odom lacks the history to make me think that he will keep up his torrid pace. If Ray Rice is scuttling by him, it won’t make a difference what jump Odom has on the quarterback. Carson Palmer has been solid, but he isn’t yet back to Pro Bowl form. Even if he does return to form this weekend, he doesn’t have the supporting cast to beat the elite teams in the AFC week after week.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

Ravens Defense vs. Bengals Offense

Cedric Benson has revived his career in Cincinnati after flaming out in Chicago, but he is not playing like the #4 overall pick by any stretch. He has been a serviceable back, but I would put him in the Chester Taylor category of running back- capable of starting, but in a perfect world I don’t have him start. The Ravens defensive line will swallow up Benson at the line of scrimmage, and while his tough running style will keep him from getting knocked backwards, he won’t pick up his 4.4 yards per carry. I will put him down for 50 or 60 yards at most on Sunday.

The Ravens defense will have to rely on its secondary to win this one on that side of the ball. Chad Ochocinco is out to prove that he is still an elite wide receiver and can back up his comedic behavior with solid play on the field. He leads the team with 17 receptions and 238 yards. He will beat whichever Ravens corner is assigned to him, as noted above. He’ll get his catches and probably a touchdown, which he has promised to follow up with a Ricky Bobby celebration. Baltimore will not be able to double Ochocinco or risk being burned by speedster Laveranues Coles. However, Coles isn’t known for being a very tough receiver, and if you can keep up with him down the field (which either Foxworth or Washington can do), you can cover him. I am more concerned with Chris Henry at the slot position against Frank Walker. If Carson Palmer can get into a rhythm and avoid Baltimore’s pressure, this could be a shootout.

Ravens Offense vs. Bengals Defense

Speaking of which, this is not a good defense the Ravens will have to face this weekend, regardless of the sacks that Antwan Odom has managed to rack up. The only major challenge I foresee comes from cornerback Leon Hall against Derrick Mason. Not because I necessarily think that Hall will shut him down, but only that he will cover him well enough to limit his production and force Joe Flacco to look at his other receivers. Johnathan Joseph is a solid corner as well and could give Mark Clayton some problems on the other side. The matchup I am looking at is Morgan Trent against Kelley Washington. I watched Trent victimized countless times on the sidelines of Michigan games, and Washington could have the size and speed to take on Trent’s only marginal quickness. Todd Heap should have opportunities as well, but keep an eye on the Bengals top two cornerbacks- they are the real deal.

Cam, run the football. Please. The Bengals are about average in the league, allowing 103 yards per game, but the Ravens should be able to pound the ball against a front 4 that features pass-rushing Antwan Odom and Tank Johnson, who hasn’t done much of anything in several years, having been cut by the Cowboys after last season. The Bengals have two athletic but inexperienced linebackers in Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga, but this part of the game can’t be broken down just by personnel. The Ravens identity as a team is to pound the opponent into the ground by running the football and breaking them down by the second half. The Bengals are off to a hot start and if they feel like they are in an air battle with the Ravens they will stay confident, knowing they have Carson Palmer on their side. Teams like this need their bubble burst early, and a heavy dose of the ground game goes a long way towards asserting one’s will over an opponent.

The Rundown

This game will depend on how crisp Carson Palmer is. If he plays like he did several years ago and Chad Ochocinco follows through on his promise to victimize the Ravens cornerbacks, the Bengals have a good shot to win this game. However, given the performances of the Ravens and Bengals against their common opponent, the Browns, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Baltimore has done a great job this season of converting long drives into points in ways that fans haven’t seen before. They keep it up this weekend and turn possessions into touchdowns.

The nod goes to the Ravens, 31-17.

What Can We Learn from the Ravens Loss to the Patriots?

After Michigan lost to Michigan State and the Ravens lost to the Pats, I wanted to keep as far away from sports news as possible. Today, as I am laid up sick and feeling oddly guilty for not being at work, I find myself capitulating to the boredom and reading the reaction to Baltimore’s loss. I expected to write here about how the Ravens are still a step below the big players in the conference- Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and New England, but this might be the most hopeful 27-21 loss I have seen in recent Ravens memory. Why?

The Ravens are capable of throwing the ball against a solid defense.
I won’t back up Coach Harbaugh and Cam Cameron on this one- 47 times is about 15 times too many for Joe Flacco to be throwing the football. When your running game is working (and breaking long runs) against a defense, you keep pounding the football until they force you to pass it. There is no reason, with Tom Brady on the sideline, to do anything to let him get back on the field again. However, the Ravens were sharp and efficient despite the balance of run-pass and nearly won it were it not for Mark Clayton’s drop (more on that later). I think Cam Cameron is getting a bit too infatuated with Joe Flacco’s arm and has been chucking the ball much more than he has to in every game so far this season. This team is not good enough to do this on a regular basis, but this game proves that if the running game stalls there is another option. However…

The Ravens still need another great receiver.
Baltimore has done a great job with Derrick Mason and a slew of substandard receivers, but Mark Clayton’s drop reminded this team that aside from Mason there is no wideout who can be trusted when the game is on the line. They can all make great plays when they have to (and when Flacco is on target), but without a strong secondary option to Mason this team will struggle to keep passing drives alive. Without Mason, this team would be like the Eagles of the past few years- a great quarterback with poor receivers. The Ravens are unlikely to take this team to the next level without another receiver stepping up, and they may have to just find the money somewhere to pay at least one receiver big money in the offseason.

The defense is still there, even if the refs don’t like it.
Ever since last season’s loss to the Titans following the ticky-tack roughing the passer call against Terrell Suggs, I have been on the lookout for refs who assume that the Ravens will make dirty hits. Well, the flags were out in full force on Sunday and it could become an issue when this team plays more premier quarterbacks. As Terrell Suggs said after the game, the NFL likes to protect some “quarterbacks more than others” and I believe that’s the case with Brady after his season-ending injury last season. I am holding my breath for when Ray Lewis is called for a roughing penalty on Ben Roethlisberger that leads to the Steelers winning the AFC North. Perhaps I am too much of a homer, but the NFL too often interprets an aggressive defense as a dirty one. The league needs to realign things or teams will be hesitant to rush the passer in key situations.

Some random NFL thoughts:

-So… when is that great Chargers team we’ve been hearing about for the last 4 years going to show up?
-There might be a reason for Cincinnati’s confidence this offseason. They may not be great, but they will be an obstacle in the AFC North.
-Brett Favre still has it, and that should scare the hell out of the NFC.
-Is it possible that after 4 games, the Broncos still haven’t played any really good teams?
-Don’t let the score fool you, this Lions team doesn’t give up. They may not win many games this season but there is a change in attitude in Detroit.
-I have no idea what’s wrong with Tennessee, but it won’t cost Jeff Fisher his job. He is still one of the best coaches in the league.

Ravens-Patriots Preview: Taking Their Place Among the Elite

This is a huge game for both teams. The Patriots must avoid falling another game behind the New York Jets for the division lead, and the Ravens are looking to get a bit of a cushion in the division with Cincinnati coming up on the schedule. The Ravens have not fared well against the Patriots in recent years, though they came closer than any other team to breaking New England’s run towards their undefeated regular season in 2007. Baltimore has always been a step behind the AFC’s elite teams in Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and New England, and while prognosticators are saying all the right things, the team has yet to prove that they belong there. The Patriots were hearing doubts all week about whether they are slipping from their perch atop the conference, and went a long way towards answering those critics with a convincing win over Atlanta. This preview is more detailed than most due to the magnitude of this game, so soak it in.

What I’m Wondering:

Are the Ravens really the best team in the NFL?
No. I know Power Rankings and their blowout wins against two inferior opponents indicate that this team has leapfrogged the Steelers, Chargers, and Patriots (at least, not to mention Colts), I think it is fair to say that this team hasn’t done anything all that unexpected in terms of wins and losses. If you said before the season that the Ravens would beat the Browns and Chiefs I would have no problem with that; and if you said they would barely beat the Chargers I would be able to see that too (I thought it was a toss-up game before the season). Yes, their offense has gone wild, but I think it is too soon to call it a juggernaut. Win this game and you can start drinking the Kool Aid, but not yet.

Are the Patriots on their way down?
No, and don’t buy into any of the hype that followed the Jets game where New England was beaten by a worked up New York team playing at home. It happens- Tom Brady is still getting back into a groove, and he seems to be advancing more and more towards playing at a high level for a whole game every week. He is getting back in sync with his receivers, and the defense is taking time to gel while it works in so many new pieces. This team may take until midseason to fully get back to at or near the top of the AFC, but they will be there.

Is Joe Flacco really becoming a top tier quarterback?
Not yet. I keep seeing Joe Flacco’s name floating about on a number of MVP watch lists, and there is no denying that he is performing light-years beyond where he was last season. However, until I see him do it against top tier defenses with a bit of regularity, I can’t say that he belongs on those lists (also that he keep sailing his intermediate throws, but I harp on that every week). A strong performance this weekend could help change my mind, though.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

Ravens Defense vs. New England Offense

Don’t confuse this team with the spread out, 4 wide passing attack that we have seen out of New England in the past few years. While it seemed like a minor move in the offseason, the Patriots’ acquisition of Fred Taylor has helped this team turn to a smashmouth running attack that we haven’t seen in quite some time. Over the last 3 or 4 years I have seen an effective, if finesse running attack from the Patriots in the form of draws, or misdirections, with the running backs being larger threats as pass catchers out of the backfield than up the middle. Not since Corey Dillon has New England had a running back capable of striking fear in the defense. But Fred Taylor may be changing all that. His 105 yards last week against a stout Falcons front 7 surprised me, even though I knew Taylor still had some years left in him after his long career in Jacksonville. Mind you, the team is only averaging 108 yards on the ground per game this season compared to 142 last season, but they may be just getting started. I don’t expect Taylor or any of the Patriot’s backs to truly establish themselves against the Ravens defensive line, but if they can get a few yards here and there up the middle it will open things up for Tom Brady.

Of course what we all worry about is New England’s passing attack. If Vincent Jackson was a challenge for the Ravens cornerbacks, Randy Moss will be a menace. There is no question that either Foxworth or Washington are more than capable of keeping up with the big-play receiver, but when he goes up for the ball I have visions of the undersized corners futilely swatting at the ball as Moss comes down with it. Not to mention the lack of a true nickelback to respond to Wes Welker if he lines up in the slot- is Frank Walker going to slow him down? I doubt it. I am not yet convinced that Fabian Washington is a sure enough tackler to take down the slippery Welker if he gets the ball with any space in front of him. Benjamin Watson is a sure-handed tight end capable of making plays in the passing game, and if Tom Brady is on target this team will be able to pile on at least 24 points. I just don’t see how our secondary can stop these receivers if Brady has time to throw.

And that is where the defensive line comes in. In order for Baltimore to win this game, the Ravens must get pressure on Tom Brady- it has been said many times before to little success, but I point it out here because this may be the best time in the season to do it. The Patriots offensive line has not been as solid as in seasons past, and Brady is still looking a little gun-shy in protecting that reconstructed knee of his. He hasn’t been sacked since Week 1, but he has been hurried, harried, and forced into bad throws, resulting in a dismal 23-47 for 216 yards and an interception against the Jets in Week 2. Brady will drop back to pass at least 45 times on Sunday. If the Ravens knock him down enough and make him feel the pressure, he should have a similar line as he did against New York.

Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense

As far as the Pats defense is concerned, it is an odd mix of solid veteran players- cornerbacks Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden included- and a collection of undrafted young players with no track record of success. With the departures of Junior Seau, Teddy Bruschi, and Mike Vrabel, Bill Belichick has incorporated a brand new crop of linebackers. Aside from dominant outside linebacker Adalius Thomas (who Ravens fans are all too familiar with), the starting linebackers are all undrafted players in Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander, and Gary Guyton. They come from solid defensive schools (Michigan, LSU, and Georgia Tech, respectively), but apart from that very little is known about these former special teamers. Now I won’t criticize Belichick’s history of developing players, but I will bet not all of these guys are ready for prime time. Add in the possibility of Vince Wilfork playing on a gimpy left ankle and you have the right environment for Ravens offensive success.

Run away from Adalius Thomas and let Ray Rice and Willis McGahee twist their way through the inexperienced Patriots linebackers. The Patriots are the 10th ranked team against the run in terms of yards per game, but are in the middle of the pack when yards per rush is taken into account. If New England gives up 4 yards per carry against the Ravens like they have this season, Baltimore will have their entire arsenal ready to use. The Ravens are averaging 4.7 yards per carry- I am betting the Pats interior line gives in before the Ravens’ does. If Wilfork can’t play, send McClain up the middle and force the Pats to bring up help to stop the run. If they do, Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden won’t be able to stop the deep ball on their own. But this is a smart defense and they are coached well. Running the ball will be a matter of out-executing the Patriots and beating them at the point of attack. Throw schemes out the window, this is Bo Schembechler football.

As far as the passing game is concerned, a healthy Todd Heap will give Baltimore a dimension they haven’t very often in recent years. Provided Joe Flacco doesn’t overthrow his 6’5” receiver (which he has been prone to do), Heap will be available over the middle and even deep. When I saw Dallas Clark get behind his defender for that 80 yard touchdown against the Dolphins a couple weeks ago, I couldn’t help but see Todd Heap making that same move. Given the environment in Foxboro and the experience of the New England cornerbacks, I don’t think we can expect another 300 yard day out of Joe. However, I do think that he will complete at least one bomb and avoid the interceptions that have hurt him in big games so far this year. The Ravens have opened up the playbook this year, and Cam Cameron would be smart to throw out all the stops for this one.

The Rundown

This one is tough to pick. One must remember that the Ravens barely won at San Diego, and New England is a better team and is at home in a very tough place to play. However, the Patriots haven’t looked like the Patriots yet this season and aren’t winning like we expect them to. But each week this team seems to look closer and closer to that 2007 team that terrified opponents so much. But in the 4th quarter of a close game, who do you trust to make a play?

The nod goes to the Patriots, 28-24.

Boy do I ever want to be wrong on this one...

Ravens-Browns Preview: Everything Coming Together for Baltimore

The Ravens escaped with a win over the Chargers, there is no other way to slice it. Yes they stood firm in the Red Zone, but the bolts had the Ravens secondary from the first snap and it was only the incredible play of Joe Flacco & the gang that kept Baltimore ahead. Many pieces have been written on Ray Lewis’ big tackle to seal the game (that will go on his highlight video in Canton), but San Diego carved up the defense for much of the afternoon despite missing their center and future Hall of Fame running back. For the second week in a row, I am wondering about the Ravens defense. If they are exploited on Sunday, it is time to get concerned.

The Browns are returning comfortably to the Browns of old after starting the season 0-2 and mustering a whole of 1 offensive touchdown. Against what was one of the worst defenses in the league last year in Denver, this team garnered only 6 points, 54 yards rushing, 161 yards passing, and had to throw the ball 31 times. What might be even more alarming is the defense, which sacrificed 27 points to a Bronco squad that only barely beat Cincinnati’s defense and was sending out a quarterback who admits that he is having trouble throwing anything beyond a short pass.

What I’m Wondering:

Will the Ravens cornerbacks recover this weekend?
If not, it won’t be because of an explosive quarterback or multiple receiving threats. If the secondary struggles this week then it will be time for Ravens fans to start to panic. I have never been sold on these cornerbacks (an Oakland flameout and a 3rd round pick who was traded for a 6th round pick and then cut), and this will be the week they have to prove themselves. Braylon Edwards, with his size and speed will pose a significant challenge for whichever corner is matched up against him, but after Edwards the talent pool gets much shallower- more on that later. Brady Quinn is only the starter right now because he is the fan favorite, and has done little to prove himself so far. This is the time for the secondary to shine.

Which offense will the Ravens show this weekend?
Both. Against Kansas City this team elected to air it out and make big plays down the field. Against San Diego they took a more deliberate, smashmouth approach. So far neither team has been able to stop either strategy, and with New England coming up in a week, I see no reason to show anything new on Sunday. Then again, that’s what I said against Kansas City and look what happened. Shaun Rogers is a force up the middle… and yea. There we go. Cam will have something up his sleeve as always, but I hope he doesn’t show too many of his cards.

Are the Browns this bad?
It is hard to say actually. They played well in the first half against Minnesota in Week 1, but since then they have been about as awful as everyone expected them to be. I am loathe to question a team too much after just two games, but I haven’t see anything to indicate that there is a hidden wealth of talent on the roster waiting to break out. I mean, when Hank Poteat is on your 2-deep at corner you have problems. However, it think their defense has the potential to be good this season- but the offense seems hopeless with the skill position players they have.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

However you scheme it, the Browns lack talent on the offensive side of the ball. Apart from Braylon Edwards (who Cleveland hopes has stopped dropping catchable balls), their receiving corps consists of a poor man’s Devin Hester (Joshua Cribbs) being converted to receiver and a serviceable 3rd down possession receiver in Mike Furrey. I like Furrey a lot, but he is not an elite level receiver (there is a reason the Lions let him walk). Their tight end, following the trade of Kellen Winslow to the Buccaneers, is Robert Royal, who isn’t much of a receiving threat but has great blocking ability to lead the way for Jamal Lewis.

And that, my friends, is where we find the heart of the Browns offense. Jamal Lewis makes or breaks this attack, and for Cleveland he has performed admirably over the last few seasons. Behind a Pro Bowl left tackle in Joe Thomas, Lewis has rushed for at least 1000 yards in each of the last two seasons since coming to the Browns. He is as Ravens fans will remember him- runs right into defenders, over them and through them, a throwback running back from the 1970’s and 80’s. He is one of the few backs in this league who welcomes 30 carries a game- no, he expects it, and performs better the more carries you give him. But without a passing game, Lewis has struggled this season, mustering a paltry 95 yards through the first two games of the season. Tossing out the incredibly tough run defense of the Vikings, Lewis had only 14 carries for 38 yards against the Broncos, who had one of the league’s worst run defenses in the league last year.

With an erratic Brady Quinn under center, look for the Browns to give it to Jamal at first and when he is stuffed by Kelly Gregg and Haloti Ngata (and he will be eventually), they will be forced to put it in the air. This is where the game will be determined. If Edwards manages to out-leap and out-play Washington or Foxworth on a consistent basis, this game will be close. Quinn has an arm and if Braylon can catch a few long passes to keep drives alive, the defense will be gashed eventually up the middle by Jamal. I expect the Ravens to bracket Edwards with Ed Reed if Edwards is foolish enough to line up on his side of the field, and with Landry even closer if he is on the other side. Greg Mattison can’t let the Browns lone big play receiver be free one-on-one unless he is confident that Foxworth or Washington can handle him. As for Cribbs, this is where Washington’s and Foxworth’s speed is so important- Joshua Cribbs is a wonderful return man, but he is an unpolished receiver. As long as the cornerback can keep up with him, Cribbs does not have the technique to make a great play on the ball yet. Stay on his hip pocket and run with him, and he will not burn you.

As for the Ravens, I have no idea what to expect. With the way this team has attacked the defenses they have faced in weeks 1 and 2, there is nothing this team could try on Sunday that would surprise me. However, I will attempt a few guesses at what will be more effective against this Cleveland defense. Aside from Rogers at the nose tackle spot, the Browns boast two talented linebackers in former Terrapin D’Qwell Jackson and Kamerion Wimbley. Both have the ability to rush the passer and will likely be in full attack mode to try to slow down the Ravens passing game. One of the major reasons Joe Flacco has been so successful is the performance of his offensive line, without which he lacks the time to pick apart the defense. The Browns haven’t been known as much of a pass rushing team in the past, but they won’t have a choice but to send the house on the second-year signal caller. Look for Baltimore to isolate Shaun Rogers with multiple blockers and run draw plays with Rice and McGahee- that will keep the pass rush at bay or open up wide lanes for the quick-footed Ravens running backs.

Alternatively, I have no doubt that this team can still pound the ball with the best of them, and can probably simply run over the Browns if they need to. However, I think that with the lack of talent in the Cleveland secondary (Eric Wright is their only threatening corner, and even that is debatable) I think that Flacco will be able to hit receivers wherever he wants them. In sum, while Cleveland will throw everything into alternately stopping one or another part of the offense, they do not have the talent or personnel to shut it all down for the entire game. With the impotence of the Browns offense, the Ravens will have plenty of opportunities.

The Rundown

Why so much attention on Cleveland’s bad offense? That is the only way the Browns win this game- they will have to score more than the one offensive touchdown they have been able to muster so far this season. Brady Quinn will need to channel his Notre Dame days (and the Ravens would have to pretend they are a service academy) for this team to be successful. I don’t see the Ravens scoring as many points as they did in the first two weeks simply because I have trouble believing that this team just flipped a switch and now has an explosive offense- there have to be chinks in the armor somewhere.

The nod goes to the Ravens, 27 – 13.

UPDATE ON GAMEDAY (From Falco): Jamal Lewis has been ruled out for this game. Backup James Davis will be seeing many carries. Kicker Phil Dawson is also out; he will be replaced by Billy Cundiff.

Ravens #1 in ESPN, SI Power Rankings

The Baltimore Ravens have been named the #1 team in ESPN's and SI's power rankings after the first two weeks of the season. The Ravens are one of nine teams that are currently 2-0 on the season, and thanks to their surprising offense and dependable defense, they land as the #1 team on the list.

The win over the Chargers in San Diego gave the Ravens a huge lift in respect despite that it was close. The fact is whenever you win on the road on the opposite side of the country against a potential playoff team, it is a huge win. Obviously both of the Ravens wins were closer then they would have liked, but the fact is they are 2-0.

Normally, the Ravens would not do well with expectations, but under John Harbaugh, the team always seems ready for games, no matter what. The Ravens host the Browns at home this weekend, and if the Ravens play their game, then they should be 3-0.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Postgame Report Card: Ravens 31, Chargers 26

The word of the game is... sweltering. The players on the field in Qualcomm were dealing with 100+ degree temperatures, and the game matched that in its intensity. The Ravens and Chargers played to a thrilling shootout; certainly all of Baltimore was sweating as the Chargers continued to slice the Ravens’ secondary through the second half. The Chargers had the Ravens on the ropes defensively; however the Ravens offense took the game over for the second week in a row. Joe Flacco threw for two more touchdowns and Willis McGahee added two more to match San Diego’s scoring.

But for as unorthodox as this game was for the Ravens, it did find a way to end in a classic fashion. With the Chargers going for it on fourth and two Ray Lewis shot through the line and crushed Darren Sproles along with the hearts of all Chargers fans in attendance. The secondary might’ve stunk up the joint this afternoon, but the Ravens’ linebackers are still alive and well.

Offense - Overall Grade: A
Quarterbacks: A-
Without Joe Flacco the Ravens would be winless at this point in the season. He has been able to not only manage the offense but bring it to an all new level for this franchise. No, he wasn’t perfect, but he did everything he needed to for the team to win. Flacco couldn’t find the deep ball today, but executed well on short ot intermediate throws. The one interception was more a result of a freakish jump off the line by Shawne Merriman than anything else.
Running Backs: A
Willis McGahee was absolutely brilliant, and was the stabilizing force for the Ravens in this game. Ray Rice continues to show vastly improved patience from last year which is allowing him to finally find some open running lanes. All three backs are starting material.
Wide Receivers: B-
This unit was unable to get any deep separation, which in turn took a key part of Joe Flacco’s game away. Still, Derrick Mason was his usual reliable self and Kelly Washington stepped up big-time for the Ravens and looks to be a huge contributor throughout the season. Clayton’s drop late in the fourth quarter was inexcusable and nearly cost the Ravens the game.
Tight Ends: A
Todd Heap continues his comeback tour, hauling in another touchdown and showing some of that athletic ability which made him a top-tier tight end before he encountered his rash of injuries. His leaping ability led to a huge pass interference call which set the Ravens up for a big score with what would otherwise be an incompletion (or worse). Still, the Ravens are looking for LJ Smith to come back from injury soon to free up Heap to get still more involved in the open field.
Offensive Line: B+
For a stretch, this group was absolutely dominant, taking advantage of a battered San Diego defensive line. Still, late in the game they weren’t able to assert their will when they needed it; if this group could just make that one more step up, this team can be something special. Oher already looks like an NFL veteran – and a good one at that.

Defense - Overall Grade: C+
Defensive Line: B+
This group was excellent against the run and got some good penetration, however they need to start finishing on some of those quarterback pressures. If Rivers was able to sidestep as many of the tackles as he did today, this unit will have its head spinning against Roethlisberger. The biggest key is for Suggs to show up, because he was nearly absent today when he should have thrived against the depleted offensive line of the Chargers.
Linebackers: A
From Ray Lewis to Tavares Gooden to Jarrett Johnson to Antwan Barnes (et al), the Ravens franchise just continues to find and develop the finest linebackers in the league. The entire linebacking corps had an excellent game, although it would have been good to see more pressure on Rivers (though the secondary made that more difficult). And speaking of which…
Defensive Backs: F
An abysmal performance. This unit was humiliated by a veteran quarterback and a corps of physically dominant receivers. Surely it was not for lack of effort; this group was just overmatched and embarrassed. The Chargers were able to throw away from Ed Reed all game, rendering him ineffective.

Special Teams - Overall Grade: A
Kicker: A
Steve Hauschka only had one field goal to make, but without that score the Ravens are most likely on the losing end of this game. His kickoffs were great, with the exception of the fluky out-of-bounds kick due to the returner catching it with a foot out of bounds.
Punter: A+
Sam Koch is an artist. Three of his punts were within the 10 yard line, and two were within the 5. Very very impressive.
Returners: B+
Chris Carr rebounded with a much better week on punt and kickoff returns. Still looking for him to break one, but this was a good start.
Coverage: B+
For the most part, Darren Sproles was contained on kickoffs. Prescott Burgess was a monster on special teams, and Lardarius Webb made a great save on a Koch punt to plant it at the one.

Coaching - Overall Grade: A-
Offensive: A
Cam Cameron had an excellent feel for the game this week. He had the run and pass balanced very well throughout the afternoon, and finally seemed to get a good rhythm going with how and when to use his three backs. It’ll be exciting to see this offense develop as the season progresses, because it’s clear that they’ve only touched the surface of their potential.
Defensive: B
The jury is still out on how this defense will fare down the line wit Greg Mattison at the helm rather than Rex Ryan. For this game it’s awful hard to blame the coaching staff for the horrendous secondary play; most of the time the players were in position to make plays, however they were just flat-out beaten. Still, they were gashed for the second week in a row…

And for my MVP/LVP...
MVP (Most Valuable Player) –Willis McGahee– Like Todd Heap, he seems to be enjoying a bit of a comeback tour this year. He, more than any other player, seemed to recenter the Ravens’ offense when they needed it the most. He’s showing the vision, power, and speed which made him such a sought-after commodity by the front office when he was acquired. Two touchdowns to back him up don’t hurt either.
LVP (Least Valuable Player) –Fabian Washington– Quite frankly, he was the worst player on the worst unit in this game, so that’s why he has this dubious honor. He certainly was not alone in his struggles, but Foxworth had at least a few impressive pass defenses.

(Photo Credit: NFL.com)

Ravens-Chargers Preview: Time to Make a Statement

The Ravens offense looked incredible in putting away the Chiefs on Sunday, racking up a franchise record 501 yards of offense en route to a 38-24 win that was in question up until the final minutes of the game. It was disappointing to me to see a backup quarterback (and the third-best quarterback in Kansas City in my opinion) on a bad team put up those kinds of numbers against a Baltimore defense. I realize that much of this was turnover induced, and… exactly. Turnovers will kill an offense, but I will try not to take away from what was all-in-all a stellar performance from this team. They did what they were supposed to do- win, and do it impressively. The Chargers had a similar task in front of them- beat the hapless Oakland Raiders, who will either finish 3rd or 4th in the division depending only on the hope of supreme ineptitude on the part of the Broncos and Chiefs. Instead the Bolts struggled, relying on a late touchdown to seal a less-than-convincing 4 point victory. This is still a great San Diego team and a very trendy Super Bowl pick to finally live up to the talent of their roster.

What I’m Wondering:

Was that the Ravens offense?

It certainly seems like it. Joe Flacco racked up yardage but continued to overthrow his receivers on intermediate and short routes; and I will harp on it for as long as it continues- you can’t afford to lose the easy completions. However, if this is Cam Cameron’s vision, I like it. As long as this team continues to feature the run as their primary attack (which Harbaugh seems to favor), this team could be dangerous. It isn’t that Baltimore will become a passing team, but when this team is behind or against a stellar defensive front, they will need to be able to have more than one passing option. I still need to see whether Derrick Mason is still the only receiver Joe Flacco is looking for/getting open, and that is a major concern of mine.

Was that the Ravens defense?

No- well, not exactly. The 24 points put up by the Chiefs was a mirage caused by blocked punts and interceptions- not things the Ravens should be doing anyway, but nothing to be overly concerned about. It looks to me like Greg Mattison isn’t changing all that much from last season, and while I’d like to see more pressure on the quarterback, Baltimore hasn’t ranked in the top echelon of the league in sacks in several years for whatever reason. I am still worried about the cornerback situation, more on that later.

Was that the Chargers?

No. Not by a long shot. Even if LaDainian Tomlinson is unable to go this weekend, this team has plenty of options on the ground in speedy Darren Sproles and Michael Bennett, who are consistent home run threats on any play. Moreover, Philip Rivers was worth every penny of his $40.5 million contract and has large targets to go to in Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson. They won’t look offensively befuddled on Sunday, at least not by their own doing. Oakland was giving them vanilla looks on defense and San Diego shot themselves in the foot over and over. It won’t happen two weeks in a row.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

San Diego had the 31st ranked pass defense in the league last year, despite not having a single major injury in the secondary. Antonio Cromartie took a step backwards last season, making way more tackles and forcing way fewer interceptions than a season ago. With Quentin Jammer only an adequate #2 corner in the league, this could be another ripe opportunity for Baltimore to attack the corners in single coverage with comebacks and out patterns that are tougher for the safeties to get over and help. Eric Weddle is a very Jim Leonhard type of player, and won’t back down from the big hit- he came into his own last season with 103 solo tackles; Joe Flacco would be wise not to test him too much. Keep attacking the corners and there will be first-downs to be had. The front seven of the Chargers kept them in games last year, and they should be even better with the return of Shawne Merriman (especially with Merriman in a contract year). Baltimore will need to run the ball, but this game might very well be won in the air.

Baltimore’s defense will have its hands full with Philip Rivers, without whom this would not have been a playoff team last year. His 241 passing yards per game was good enough for 7th in the NFL last season, helping the Chargers become the second highest scoring team in the league last year at 27.4 points per game. Chris Chambers is an extremely physical receiver and should give problems to whichever corner is assigned to him. Vincent Jackson came into his own last season with 1,098 yards receiving and with his 6’ 5” height he will have a 6 inch advantage over either of the Ravens cornerbacks. The Baltimore front 7 will have to penetrate the Chargers veteran line, largely unchanged over the last several seasons and who gave up just 25 sacks last season. The Ravens will be able to stop the run, regardless of how fast the running back is. Sproles may be able to break one here or there, but I have to believe that this team will be ready for it. Baltimore can force Rivers to be the one to make plays, and Norv Turner will be more than willing to oblige by having his quarterback air it out.

The Rundown

For the Ravens, the disadvantage caused by traveling cross-country will probably be cancelled out by the extra day of rest the Chargers missed out on by playing on Monday Night. The Baltimore secondary will be tested by a quarterback and receivers who are much more talented than the ones they struggled against last weekend. However, the Chargers have consistently underperformed to their talent level and looked dazed and confused against one of the worst teams in the NFL. The pundits are all over the place on the Ravens, some ranking them as high as 4th in the NFL and others as low as 12th. This game should go a long way in showing where they belong.

The nod goes to the Ravens, 31-27.

UPDATE (9/19/09, from Falco): The Associated Press is reporting LaDainian Tomlinson is out against the Ravens due to his sprained ankle.

Postgame Report Card: Ravens 38, Chiefs 24

The word of the game is... uncharacteristic. The Ravens’ traditional formula of coupling a suffocating defense with a conservative run offense was thrown out the window today. Instead, Harbaugh and company opted for a wide-open game plan against a weak Kansas City secondary. The results were mixed, in that while the Ravens prevailed, the outcome was far more in doubt than it should have been based on the state of the Chiefs’ franchise. Regardless, Joe Flacco was able to execute the aerial attack and showed a new side of the Ravens offense.

The defense began the game in its typical dominant fashion, but after a couple of bounces put Kansas City back into the game, the defense began to falter and allow Croyle to gain a rhythm in the second half. In the end it was the Ravens returning to the running game late while mixing in a few clutch passes which put them over the top. Clearly the issue of run/pass balance will be one that the coaches will have to be more judicious with, but unlike season’s past, that decision isn’t being made for them.

Offense - Overall Grade: A
Quarterbacks: A-
Joe Flacco was asked to carry this team and he proved more than able. He passed for a career high 303 yards, with three touchdown passes and one interception. While Flacco did make some poor throws, his decision making and pocket presence was outstanding throughout the game. His preseason exploits are not looking like a fluke.
Running Backs: A-
This unit stabilized the game for the Ravens in the second half. When Kansas City gained momentum, it was the three headed monster of Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le’Ron McClain which took control. While Ray Rice took the headlines with his 100+ yard performance, attention should be given to Willis McGahee. McGahee looked the best he has in years, and was able to notch on a touchdown for good measure to finish the game. When Cam learns how and when to use these running backs, watch out.
Wide Receivers: A
This unit made all of the plays they were asked to make. No, they still did not display much deep play ability (although that was a pretty reception by Mark Clayton on the 31-yd touchdown pass), but they were consistent throughout the game. Ravens fans have to be pleased with the performance of Kelly Washington, who reeled in three catches for 43 yards and appears to be headed for a solid season from the third wide position. The one negative is that I would’ve liked to see Demetrius Williams get involved at some point.
Tight Ends: A+
Welcome back, Todd Heap. The ‘stormin mormon’ appeared to be back to his old form, as he hauled in five catches for 74 yards and a touchdown. It’s true, he did drop a pass, but the sheer joy of having a guy like Todd return to form is enough for me to warrant giving this grade.
Offensive Line: B+
All in all a very good performance, as Flacco had a good deal of time to throw and the running backs did have space to run. Their excellent pass protection is what allowed Cameron to finally utilize Heap as a receiving threat, and first rounder Michael Oher looked excellent in his first start. At the same time, I don’t feel like this unit was as dominant as it could have been, particularly early in the running game. It wasn’t until late that Rice and McGahee had the holes they needed to break off some runs.

Defense - Overall Grade: B+
Defensive Line: A-
This unit put consistent pressure on Brodie Croyle, particularly at the start of the game. Ngata, Pryce, and Gregg all were able to get into the backfield early on several running plays, and they made Larry Johnson make moves behind the line of scrimmage all afternoon.
Linebackers: A-
There is no corps of linebackers in the NFL as deep and talented as this one, and they continue to show that to the world. The least heralded of the bunch, Jarrett Johnson, probably had the best game, but it’s good to see Suggs back and healthy. The Ravens gave Suggs plenty of money this offseason, it’s good to see that he’s playing just as hard as he was beforehand.
Defensive Backs: B+
Dominique Foxworth impressed in his regular season debut, as he was able to shut down the Chiefs’ most prolific receiver in Dwayne Bowe. Bowe’s only reception came on a mismatch against Dawan Landry, who played well despite that misstep. This unit showed some chinks in the armor in the second half, but still played a solid game.

Special Teams - Overall Grade: C+
Kicker: B-
Despite missing a 41-yard field goal, Hauschka still converted a 44-yard field goal and was excellent on all of his kickoffs. Don’t panic, Ravens fans, he’ll be just fine. No need to call Mr. Stover.
Punter: C+
Not sure if Sam Koch is really the one to blame on the blocked punt (I'm sorry, I'm no Ron Jaworski), but he's the one taking the hit in the grade. Aside from that he had his usual excellent performance, but that block allowed KC back into this game.
Returners: C+
Chris Carr had some room to work with, but failed to take advantage in any of his punt or kick returns. The Ravens picked him up for his return abilities, but there’s plenty of depth behind him so he can’t have many more days like this one. Not that he was terrible, but the Ravens would want more from their returner than what they got today.
Coverage: B+
Kansas City got little if anything going on in the return game despite using a few different return men. The Ravens were disciplined in their coverage and sound in tackling, and Chris Carr was given solid blocking on returns. A good, not great day for the coverage and return units.

Coaching - Overall Grade: B
Offensive: A-
I know that there are a lot of Baltimore fans who don’t like how heavily the Ravens relied on the pass for much of the game. Still, I for one am behind Cameron’s game plan; it made sound football sense in that the Chiefs were without their two best cornerbacks and the Ravens had good matchups to exploit. And what’s more is that Cameron actually has an offense which can execute that plan. At the same time, he did move to the running game when the situation called for it. A little more balance overall would have been the best way to go, but still a very good game for Cam Cameron and his staff.
Defensive: A-
After a hot start, the Ravens defense was put into tough spots and began to show some cracks. Greg Mattison seemed to keep things much the same as they have been in past years, which is a good sign. However, he should have dialed up the blitz more when Brodie Croyle began to establish a rhythm in the second half. The defense started to get a little bit relaxed and vanilla, and I think that helped encourage Kansas City’s rally.

And for my MVP/LVP...
MVP (Most Valuable Player) –Joe Flacco– A career day for the franchise quarterback. It wasn’t perfect, but the Ravens are starting to resemble a real NFL offense.
LVP (Least Valuable Player) –Sam Koch– Again, I'm not certain how much blame for the block goes on Sam Koch versus the members of his protection team, but regardless he can't let that happen. Without that play, I doubt Kansas City is ever in this football game.

(Photo Credit: Baltimore Sun)

Ravens-Chiefs Preview: No Reason Not to Win This One

The Ravens ended the preseason 4-0, riding a wave of enthusiasm and energy that comes with showing the depth of your team and the precision of your starters in winning the first half or quarter, whatever it may be. Then again, so did last year’s Lions. However, I was pleasantly surprised with what I saw of Baltimore this preseason, much more so than I was of the Lions when I watched them last year before the season started. Joe Flacco seems poised to take his game to a more aggressive and more accurate level, dispelling my fear that he would settle into a role as a deep thrower who couldn’t be relied on to carry a team. I still don’t think he is there yet, but I don’t think he has a sophomore slump in him either. The defense is as sound as ever, with the return of Dawan Landry almost making up for Jim Leonhard’s departure, a stable of great linebackers replacing Bart Scott, and Kelly Gregg making life that much better for star-in-the-making Haloti Ngata.

This week the Ravens will take on their first opponent of the 2009 campaign, and one coming off a very different offseason. At the beginning of 2008, this team was planning to go young, take its lumps, and develop its talent to contend after a few seasons, like many rebuilding clubs. They had patience in Herm Edwards’ plan and were willing to take their time with him and his project. However, as we have seen with the Orioles, fans know the losses are coming but become indignant when they do. The result? A seeming reversal of plans that have left this team without much direction. They dropped many of their young project players, picked up the likes of aging Mike Vrabel, and fired their coach, replacing him with Todd Haley, the Cardinals Offensive Coordinator who only garnered interest from teams as a head coach after his team went to the Super Bowl. The front office traded a second-round pick for the franchised Matt Cassel, and I am not exactly sure what this team is trying to do from a long-term perspective. They went 0-4 in the preseason, as did the Patriots last season. But this team is not the Patriots.

What I'm Wondering:

It's Week 1. The world is hope and optimism. Nothing to question until we get to see this team on the field for real.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

Chiefs Offense vs. Ravens Defense
When Todd Haley was hired as Chiefs’ head coach, I scratched my head and wondered what the front office was thinking. Not that Haley wasn’t a solid head coaching candidate- I have no idea, but I do know that his offense was lost in its use of the running back. The Cardinals ranked near or at the bottom of the league in each of Haley’s two seasons as coordinator, and that can’t all be blamed on a porous offensive line. That offensive line was still good enough to pass protect Kurt Warner all the way for 4,583 yards last season. He runs a high-flying passing attack, I get that. But the Chiefs are unsettled at quarterback even IF Matt Cassel is healthy (one season does not a quarterback make) and have no real threats at wide receiver outside of Dwayne Bowe, who has shown promise but not #1 wideout material. Without Tony Gonzalez at tight end as a safety blanket, this team will struggle in the passing game.

How Haley adjusts his offensive philosophy to suit the overworked but still dynamic Larry Johnson has yet to be seen, but so far the results are unimpressive- no more than 13 points in any preseason game this season. Johnson needs to be healthy for an entire season for the Chiefs to be competitive, but with an amateur passing game this could be a struggle. The Ravens won’t have to do anything fancy to stop the Chiefs attack. They will need to dominate the line of scrimmage, which shouldn’t be difficult even with a veteran-but-thin offensive line (a player just picked up off of waivers is on their 2-deep at tackle). Landry and Reed might be attacked by play action, but if the front seven is doing their job then they won’t have to bite up and take the chance, hanging back on every play.

If Tyler Thigpen plays, I would be more concerned- he plays like it is his last game every time he is out there, throwing his body around and playing the game as it should be played. His escapability and inventiveness when rolling out of the pocket could allow Kansas City to keep drives alive after Johnson is snuffed out. However, it is important to remember that for all of his guts, Thigpen was 1-13 last season when he saw significant action. Additionally, Brodie Croyle is listed as the #2 quarterback behind Cassel at the moment. That would be entertaining.

Unless the not-as-good-as-advertised starting cornerbacks of the Ravens (sorry, but Foxworth was traded for a 6th round pick and then cut, and Washington is still a Oakland cast-off who didn’t impress much last season) completely blow a few coverages, this side of the ball shouldn’t be a contest.

Ravens Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
When the defense is dominant, the Ravens offense doesn’t need to do much. That should be exactly the gameplan on Sunday for Baltimore. With a trip to San Diego coming up in Week 2, there should be no reason to pull out any of the Cam Cameron’s new material for the playbook. One of my pet peeves of Cameron last season was his tendency to pull out the trick plays or new wrinkles in the offense against vastly inferior teams in games that were already out of hand. Often they were the type of play you could only use once a season anyway. This game should follow last year’s base set, while allowing Flacco to have more reads in the passing game. I have not been sure that Flacco could adjust his throwing motion so that he isn’t constantly throwing short and intermediate passes over the heads of his receivers, and he still struggles with it. However, it is clear that he has a better grasp of the playbook and the position than he did last season.

Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, Kansas City’s first round picks of the last two years, could be a lot to handle for Jared Gaither and rookie Michael Oher. The LSU teammates may help improve the Chiefs pass rush from a season ago and take a bit of pressure off of a substandard secondary that ranked 28th in pass defense. The leadership and knowledge of Mike Vrabel should help a linebacking corp that had a habit of running into blockers last season, but the group as a whole doesn’t have the talent to gel this early in the season. While this squad only allowed a high of 17 points in any game this preseason, given the players on this team I wonder how well that will hold up once the regular season starts.

For the Ravens, pound the ball with McGahee and Rice and force Mike Vrabel to run side-to-side with some flares by Rice out of the backfield and (hopefully) get Todd Heap out on linebackers over the middle. This will make sure that Dorsey and Jackson are rushing without linebacker support, which should even the playing field for the Ravens offensive line. The passing game doesn’t have to be fancy, but merely efficient enough to keep the defense honest, with at least one obligatory Flacco bomb down the field. I don’t normally advocate a conservative approach, but with the Ravens defense against a dysfunctional Chiefs offense, Baltimore just needs to be sure not to spoil the show by turning the ball over. There will be plenty of opportunities for the offense to make plays, but with a young offense that is still growing in their grasp of Cameron’s offense, there are no reasons to take a chance today.

The Rundown
Regardless of the offensive approach, this will be a great opportunity to see how far Joe Flacco has come as he makes this offense his own. Despite the recent dominance by the Chiefs over the Ravens, that should come to an end on Sunday. Try as I might, unless Matt Cassel comes out completely healthy and the Kansas City wide receivers morph into legitimate deep threats, I don’t see how the Chiefs can win it.

The nod goes to the Ravens, 27-9