Ravens-Browns Preview: Everything Coming Together for Baltimore

The Ravens escaped with a win over the Chargers, there is no other way to slice it. Yes they stood firm in the Red Zone, but the bolts had the Ravens secondary from the first snap and it was only the incredible play of Joe Flacco & the gang that kept Baltimore ahead. Many pieces have been written on Ray Lewis’ big tackle to seal the game (that will go on his highlight video in Canton), but San Diego carved up the defense for much of the afternoon despite missing their center and future Hall of Fame running back. For the second week in a row, I am wondering about the Ravens defense. If they are exploited on Sunday, it is time to get concerned.

The Browns are returning comfortably to the Browns of old after starting the season 0-2 and mustering a whole of 1 offensive touchdown. Against what was one of the worst defenses in the league last year in Denver, this team garnered only 6 points, 54 yards rushing, 161 yards passing, and had to throw the ball 31 times. What might be even more alarming is the defense, which sacrificed 27 points to a Bronco squad that only barely beat Cincinnati’s defense and was sending out a quarterback who admits that he is having trouble throwing anything beyond a short pass.

What I’m Wondering:

Will the Ravens cornerbacks recover this weekend?
If not, it won’t be because of an explosive quarterback or multiple receiving threats. If the secondary struggles this week then it will be time for Ravens fans to start to panic. I have never been sold on these cornerbacks (an Oakland flameout and a 3rd round pick who was traded for a 6th round pick and then cut), and this will be the week they have to prove themselves. Braylon Edwards, with his size and speed will pose a significant challenge for whichever corner is matched up against him, but after Edwards the talent pool gets much shallower- more on that later. Brady Quinn is only the starter right now because he is the fan favorite, and has done little to prove himself so far. This is the time for the secondary to shine.

Which offense will the Ravens show this weekend?
Both. Against Kansas City this team elected to air it out and make big plays down the field. Against San Diego they took a more deliberate, smashmouth approach. So far neither team has been able to stop either strategy, and with New England coming up in a week, I see no reason to show anything new on Sunday. Then again, that’s what I said against Kansas City and look what happened. Shaun Rogers is a force up the middle… and yea. There we go. Cam will have something up his sleeve as always, but I hope he doesn’t show too many of his cards.

Are the Browns this bad?
It is hard to say actually. They played well in the first half against Minnesota in Week 1, but since then they have been about as awful as everyone expected them to be. I am loathe to question a team too much after just two games, but I haven’t see anything to indicate that there is a hidden wealth of talent on the roster waiting to break out. I mean, when Hank Poteat is on your 2-deep at corner you have problems. However, it think their defense has the potential to be good this season- but the offense seems hopeless with the skill position players they have.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

However you scheme it, the Browns lack talent on the offensive side of the ball. Apart from Braylon Edwards (who Cleveland hopes has stopped dropping catchable balls), their receiving corps consists of a poor man’s Devin Hester (Joshua Cribbs) being converted to receiver and a serviceable 3rd down possession receiver in Mike Furrey. I like Furrey a lot, but he is not an elite level receiver (there is a reason the Lions let him walk). Their tight end, following the trade of Kellen Winslow to the Buccaneers, is Robert Royal, who isn’t much of a receiving threat but has great blocking ability to lead the way for Jamal Lewis.

And that, my friends, is where we find the heart of the Browns offense. Jamal Lewis makes or breaks this attack, and for Cleveland he has performed admirably over the last few seasons. Behind a Pro Bowl left tackle in Joe Thomas, Lewis has rushed for at least 1000 yards in each of the last two seasons since coming to the Browns. He is as Ravens fans will remember him- runs right into defenders, over them and through them, a throwback running back from the 1970’s and 80’s. He is one of the few backs in this league who welcomes 30 carries a game- no, he expects it, and performs better the more carries you give him. But without a passing game, Lewis has struggled this season, mustering a paltry 95 yards through the first two games of the season. Tossing out the incredibly tough run defense of the Vikings, Lewis had only 14 carries for 38 yards against the Broncos, who had one of the league’s worst run defenses in the league last year.

With an erratic Brady Quinn under center, look for the Browns to give it to Jamal at first and when he is stuffed by Kelly Gregg and Haloti Ngata (and he will be eventually), they will be forced to put it in the air. This is where the game will be determined. If Edwards manages to out-leap and out-play Washington or Foxworth on a consistent basis, this game will be close. Quinn has an arm and if Braylon can catch a few long passes to keep drives alive, the defense will be gashed eventually up the middle by Jamal. I expect the Ravens to bracket Edwards with Ed Reed if Edwards is foolish enough to line up on his side of the field, and with Landry even closer if he is on the other side. Greg Mattison can’t let the Browns lone big play receiver be free one-on-one unless he is confident that Foxworth or Washington can handle him. As for Cribbs, this is where Washington’s and Foxworth’s speed is so important- Joshua Cribbs is a wonderful return man, but he is an unpolished receiver. As long as the cornerback can keep up with him, Cribbs does not have the technique to make a great play on the ball yet. Stay on his hip pocket and run with him, and he will not burn you.

As for the Ravens, I have no idea what to expect. With the way this team has attacked the defenses they have faced in weeks 1 and 2, there is nothing this team could try on Sunday that would surprise me. However, I will attempt a few guesses at what will be more effective against this Cleveland defense. Aside from Rogers at the nose tackle spot, the Browns boast two talented linebackers in former Terrapin D’Qwell Jackson and Kamerion Wimbley. Both have the ability to rush the passer and will likely be in full attack mode to try to slow down the Ravens passing game. One of the major reasons Joe Flacco has been so successful is the performance of his offensive line, without which he lacks the time to pick apart the defense. The Browns haven’t been known as much of a pass rushing team in the past, but they won’t have a choice but to send the house on the second-year signal caller. Look for Baltimore to isolate Shaun Rogers with multiple blockers and run draw plays with Rice and McGahee- that will keep the pass rush at bay or open up wide lanes for the quick-footed Ravens running backs.

Alternatively, I have no doubt that this team can still pound the ball with the best of them, and can probably simply run over the Browns if they need to. However, I think that with the lack of talent in the Cleveland secondary (Eric Wright is their only threatening corner, and even that is debatable) I think that Flacco will be able to hit receivers wherever he wants them. In sum, while Cleveland will throw everything into alternately stopping one or another part of the offense, they do not have the talent or personnel to shut it all down for the entire game. With the impotence of the Browns offense, the Ravens will have plenty of opportunities.

The Rundown

Why so much attention on Cleveland’s bad offense? That is the only way the Browns win this game- they will have to score more than the one offensive touchdown they have been able to muster so far this season. Brady Quinn will need to channel his Notre Dame days (and the Ravens would have to pretend they are a service academy) for this team to be successful. I don’t see the Ravens scoring as many points as they did in the first two weeks simply because I have trouble believing that this team just flipped a switch and now has an explosive offense- there have to be chinks in the armor somewhere.

The nod goes to the Ravens, 27 – 13.

UPDATE ON GAMEDAY (From Falco): Jamal Lewis has been ruled out for this game. Backup James Davis will be seeing many carries. Kicker Phil Dawson is also out; he will be replaced by Billy Cundiff.

Ravens-Browns Preview: Which Browns are These?

Sorry for the lack of Free Kicks this week, I know y’all were desperately awaiting my post World Series analysis and general musings about all thing sports (or otherwise). However, I think everyone had to be satiated by last night’s wild finish by Texas Tech. You just knew it would be Crabtree, right? Me too. I have no idea what would have happened if they’d had to leave it to their field goal kicker. I love the Matt Williams story, but I don’t trust any Tech kicker to win it against the #1 team in the country. More on Tuesday, but first we have the Ravens.

This game is not about the 4-3 Ravens against the 3-4 Browns. This game is about two teams that are suddenly hot and out to keep their division hopes alive. If the Browns lose this one they could see their comeback hopes dashed for this season. If the Ravens lose they fall back into the “mediocre” category and out of the playoffs. Playoffs? Hey, I don’t expect it either- but keep hope alive, kids. There are a million questions going into this one, I wish I had more than three to ask. Will Jamal continue to have success against his former team? Will the secondary treat Anderson like they did Russell? Will the return of the Browns skill position players from injury mean a great offensive output than in Week 3? Stay tuned, this game will be a good one.

What I’m Wondering:

Will Flacco make it three in a row without a pick?
Joe Flacco appears to be making some strides against some bad teams, which is exactly what he should be doing this season. Like all 32,000 Ravens starting quarterbacks before him, his job will be to not turn the ball over and make just enough plays to win the game. When he is throwing 2 or 3 interceptions a game, that isn’t in the gameplan. He is still completing 62% of his passes, but I would not mind that number going gown if it meant he wouldn’t throw the ball into dangerous windows. Flacco has a rocket for an arm, but he should remember that he has the Ravens defense to rely on and he does not have the weapons he should have right now with Demetrious Williams out for the season and rookies as his 3rd and 4th wide receivers. It could get dicey for Joe if he tries to live dangerously- keep it conservative and this Browns defense might wear down. Will Flacco continue to pare down his gunslinger tendencies to play within the gameplan?

Will the Wildcat continue to be successful with Troy Smith?
I love it when a new college offense shows up and all the prognosticators say that it can’t be run in the pros. They said the speed is too great on defense for the Wildcat offense to be effective in the NFL. At that time I wondered, “Aren’t the offensive players running it faster too?” With the Miami Dolphins stunning the Patriots earlier this year and the Ravens incorporating it slowly into their offense, it appears that it can be successful- especially when the player running the Wildcat can throw the ball better than any running back. Make no mistake, having Troy Smith back there gives the Ravens a unique edge over other Wildcat formations, a double threat that allows him to take advantage of whatever the defense gives him. The Wildcat will never be a staple offense for any team, but a few plays a game can force the opposing defense to spend an inordinate amount of time preparing for just a few dynamic plays. Will the Ravens be able to build on their success in this formation or was it just a surprise gimmick that happened to work?

Has Derek Anderson turned it around?
Well the “Start Brady Quinn” signs have been put away in Cleveland at least temporarily as Derek Anderson has found a way to return to some semblance of his performance at the beginning of this year. Over his last 4 games he has thrown only 1 interception to 5 touchdowns after throwing 5 picks in his first 3 games! In his game against the Giants he sported a passer rating of over 120 while completing passes to 8 different receivers. Ravens fans should understand this game as not one against a team that is 3-4, but a team that is 3-1 in its last 4 games and beginning to return to form. This could be bad news if Anderson is able to string together 2 strong passing performances for the first time this season. Anderson is playing with more confidence, will that lead to a successful outing against a battered Ravens secondary?

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

The Ravens have to be able to run the football, period. The three headed monster of McClain, McGahee and Rice is intriguing but has to show consistent success to keep Joe Flacco out of 3rd and long situations that will force him to make a poor decision. It is amazing what impact a strong running game will have on a young quarterback. Cam Cameron will be able to open up the playbook significantly if they can rely on the fact that on a 2nd and 8 they can still afford to run the ball. But the need for a running game is a given.

How about that Wildcat? It is a great way to get Troy Smith on the field, but will defenses catch on? Survey says probably not, if you take Miami’s example. Sure, the formation with Ronnie Brown under center has not been as effective as it was against the Patriots, but it has been a consistently successful formation for them this season, and their offense has taken a big step forward just by having it as a threat. Every time Brown is on the field the defense has to wonder if it is going to him or if the formation will suddenly change. Unfortunately Troy Smith can’t be used as a running back too often, and he isn’t a regular part of the offense outside the Wildcat as Ronnie Brown is. However, as long as only a few teams are doing it, it will be tough to combat. But this is a copycat league- in 4 or 5 years half the teams in the league will have a Wildcat. For now though the Browns might find it a tad confusing to deal with.

The secondary as always is shaky- for the 3rd week in a row both McAlister and Rolle will be out of the picture and it will be left to Frank Walker and Fabian Washington to head up the top two cornerback spots. This group of DBs did not look good against either Indy or Miami, allowing Chad Pennington to throw for almost 300 yards and complete almost 70% of his passes. Against Oakland they were terrific, but who isn’t? Derek Anderson will be looking to test Walker particularly from the very beginning and take advantage of whomever is lined up against a resurgent Braylon Edwards.

The Browns will also attempt to take the bite out of the Ravens pass rush by utilizing Kellen Winslow Jr. as a safety valve receiver. He has never been the best blocker but if the Browns can dish the ball out to Winslow when Anderson is feeling pressure it will force the Ravens to leave an extra man back to cover Winslow or limit the amount of blitzing altogether. With a steady dose of Jamal Lewis up the middle it will be essential that the Ravens get pressure with a four man front or this Browns offense could find itself in a rhythm early on.

The Rundown:

I have no idea what team(s) I expect to see today. It could very well be the Browns of ’07 as this year’s edition appears to be finding its way after handing the defending champion Giants their one and only loss 4 weeks ago. If so, the Ravens could be in for a long day as they have been able to beat up on poor competition but not against the better teams of the NFL. However, the Ravens too are starting to get into a groove. Flacco isn’t turning the ball over as much and Cam Cameron has not stopped finding new and unique ways to utilize the talent on this roster. In the end the Browns won’t be able to show the Ravens anything they haven’t seen before; the Ravens on the other hand are brand new. Oh yea, and they have the Ravens D.

The nod goes to the Ravens, 24-20

Photo Credit: (Baltimore Sun: Gene Sweeney Jr.)

Ravens-Browns Preview: Great, Now Try it Against a Pass Rush

Well, I hope everyone got all that offensive enthusiasm out of their system with the Terps beat down of the EMU Eagles today, because it isn’t likely we will see much offense today. After a an unexpected bye week in which the Ravens were forced to practice for a game that didn’t happen, they now have to switch gears to face the trendiest preseason pick to take the AFC North crown from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Luckily for the Ravens, the Browns have looked like anything but a playoff team. They look more like, well… the Browns. Will that change this week in Baltimore?

The Browns look like a team trying to recapture the offense of last year’s prolific scoring machine, anchored behind former Raven draft choice Derek Anderson. Anderson, in his two starts this season has only mustered 280 yards and 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions, but has not been aided much by his supporting cast. Number 1 wideout Braylon Edwards had 5 drops last week against the Steelers and is questionable for tomorrow with an apparent shoulder injury. In every sense of the game the Browns look like a team completely lost- poor quarterback play, a secondary that has been absolutely abhorrent without Leigh Bodden to solidify the corner position, and a rushing offense that ranks 27th in the league despite an occasionally stellar Jamal Lewis.

What I’m Wondering:

Will Baltimore Still be Wacko for Flacco?
Joe Flacco is universally adored among Ravens fans for his serviceable performance that led the Ravens to a victory in week one- he managed the game and made very few mistakes against a defense not known for forcing many (the Bengals showed that against the Titans last week). This game will present a completely different challenge against a defense that has loaded up the interior of the defensive line with the acquisition of Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams. The line has only forced 2 sacks in the first two games, but that is unlikely to continue over the long term. Will Flacco be able to make the necessary plays with his arm and read the blitz against this staunch defensive line?

Will the Ravens be able to “run” away with this one?

Two weeks ago the lone question mark had to be the running game, most notably in the form of Ray Rice’s struggles. While he was given the majority of the carries, he gained only 64 yards and failed to reach 3 yards per rush. La’Ron McClain was more successful, providing a greater burst and an excellent change of pace in the passing game. How will the running back situation shake up with Willis McGahee returning from injury? Will he be able to perform as the every down back in Cameron’s offense? Bear in mind, Rice and McClain were running against arguably the most porous run defense in the NFL- how will that change against the interior of the Browns D?

Is that old school Ravens D here to stay?

I am very curious about this one. Sure the D looked great against the Bengals, but the Bengals struggled almost as much against the Titans and look generally to be an awful team. With Kelly Gregg out for at least a couple weeks, it will be up to Justin Bannan to continue to anchor the defensive line and make sure that Jamal Lewis is hit at the line of scrimmage, if not before. Lewis, as Ravens fans know, has the capacity to dominate when he is able to get a head of steam before churning out the yards after contact he is guaranteed to get. Will the D be able to force Anderson to put the ball in the air and make a mistake against an opportunistic secondary? I see Ed Reed in your future, Derek.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

I wanted to put my analysis right in the questions, but I just had to hold back. I am excited for this one- I know too many bitter Browns fans not to be. However, this game is about far more than rivalry. It is about one team struggling to reach expectations against another team hoping to win every game but not expected to win many. Make no mistake- the Browns are determined not to go 0-3. Moreover, do not make the mistake of thinking this is a bad football team. They began the season against the best team in the NFL in Dallas (until they lose try to tell me otherwise) and then against the Steelers who they lost both games against last season. This may still be the team that went 10-6 last year, but hasn’t had the opportunity to show it.

The Ravens Offense vs. the Browns Defense
The Ravens offense could be very interesting this week. Fans should expect to see less of Ray Rice but still a good amount of La’Ron McClain, particularly receiving out of the backfield. The one element that Willis McGahee lacks is a consistency in the receiving game, and Cam Cameron will not hesitate to put multiple backs out there who can catch the football. McClain also offers Flacco a safety valve that he has not enjoyed yet from his tight ends or receivers outside of Derek Mason. In 2006 Sean Payton employed a similar strategy with Mike Karney, amounting to several unexpected touchdown catches and just one more weapon for Drew Brees to employ. I am not suggesting that this offense is like the Saints, but only that Flacco could use all the weapons he can get.

And he will have plenty of chances to use them. This Brown defense has its moments, but only when it is able to apply pressure on the quarterback. On paper it boasts one of the best defensive lines in the league, but beyond that it leaves quite a few questions to be answered. If either the running game can wear down the tough interior of that line or the offensive line can continue their dominating performance from the Bengals game, Flacco could get into a rhythm against their secondary. However, one must recall that the dominating offensive line performance was against the worst defensive line in the NFL. With an extra week of practice to gel as a unit, the line could manage some success- particularly with Crennel’s hesitation to blitz.

The Ravens Offense vs. the Browns Defense
On defense, it will be all about turnovers. Make no mistake, this Browns offense is capable of moving the football. Derek Anderson will be out to prove his worth against the wave of criticism thrust upon him since the end of last season. Jamal Lewis always runs hard against his former team. All numbers aside, this team is due an offense output like last season’s. Donte Stallworth may join Edwards on the sideline tomorrow (also listed as questionable), leaving Kellen Winslow as the lone receiving threat- though mismatches may be possible as Winslow runs more like a wide receiver than a tight end. Even so, the Ravens coverage will be able to play closer to the line with the top two “big play” threats essentially neutralized. Aside from this general overview, it is hard to make any determinations about the Browns offense because they have looked embarrassing in their first two games.

The Rundown
This is not the day the Browns turn it around. The Ravens are lighthearted, they are enjoying success but are not burdened by expectations just yet. The Browns are a good team, but even they know they aren’t good enough to make the playoffs after starting 0-3. Cleveland’s defense will be unable to apply consistent pressure- a front four will only be effective when aided by a blitz, which will enable Flacco to engage a worse secondary than most of his 1-AA competition. The Ravens defense will wear down as the season goes on and injuries pile up, but today they will take advantage of a Cleveland team pressing for points and making critical errors down the stretch. They will move the ball between the 20’s, but I don’t expect the Browns to capitalize with touchdowns.

The nod goes to the Ravens, 17-9