Once again the Ravens preview has taken a backseat to a mountain of work-related activities, but I promise to get back on the horse next week. In the meantime, enjoy some Free Kicks to get you through the weekend. Unfortunately I have to start with the Yankees, so get ready for some extra obnoxious New York fans next season while we line up for the kick…
Yankees Win 27th World Series Title
I won’t go into the popular refrain that they bought this World Series title, though I will say that they are perennial contenders because of that payroll- there is no way that much money doesn’t at least put you in the playoffs. This year they were the best team in baseball, though hardly a great story. Most years there is something to rally behind, and last year was the king of that- you had the Tampa Bay Rays with the first winning season in team history and the Phillies who were carrying a 25 year city-wide title drought. This year you had the Phillies as defending champs and the big, bad Yankees. Sure I was disappointed when the Phillies lost, but it wasn’t exactly a heartbreaker either. I just can’t stand the Yankees. My biggest worry is that the Yankees fans will become even more obnoxious, puffing out their chests even more while the nation-wide band-wagoners trade their Red Sox caps for Yankees caps. Either way it’ll be more misery for us O’s fans.
No Ravens Preview, But Here’s a Prediction
The Ravens will not shut down the Bengals the way they shut down the Broncos last week, but I will bet they do a better job on Cedric Benson, holding him to under 100 yards. As for Carson Palmer, he will get his share of big plays down the field, but I think that the Broncos game was a change in attitude for this defense. It gave them the confidence they need and inspired Greg Mattison to send blitzers more often and make use of the Ravens linebackers. I will take Baltimore’s defense to make a stop when it needs to. The offense has adjusted since its last game against the Bengals, and will be able to score on this defense. Joe Flacco has been incredible in pressure situations, and I will take Ray Rice to have a big game this weekend. The nod goes to the Ravens, 27-21.
Hill, Fiorentino, Rodriguez Declare for Free Agency
Rich Hill will look around, but I doubt that he gets a major league contract. Whether it was his health or his throwing motion (or both) we don’t know, but his 2007 performance is looking like a long time ago. This makes two straight seasons that he has struggled mightily and then, late in the season, said he was pitching hurt all year. I still think he can be a great starting pitcher in theory, but he might just be too far gone at this point. He was hanging every pitch over the plate this past season, and there will be a limited number of teams willing to commit a lot of money on a reclamation project. The best place for Hill is a year at Norfolk, and I hope he realizes it.
As for Jeff Fiorentino, he has been good to the Orioles after they mishandled his development three years ago. He deserves a shot at another team and perhaps become an everyday outfielder on another squad- there is no room in the outfield for Baltimore and he has been a class act since he arrived in the organization. Best wishes to him as he goes to yet another club. The Orioles will find a catcher, Guillermo Rodriguez won’t be missed all that much. Matt Wieters has the position pretty safely locked up.
Prediction for the Weekend:
Well, last weekend I recovered with the Oregon win over USC, bringing me to 2-4 in my dicey predictions. So this week, how about I go back to college football. Navy takes on Notre Dame, and excuse me if I want to go for the Midshipmen. The Irish defense has been suspect to say the least this season, and a well-executed triple option can tear that apart. The risk here is that Navy’s defenders won’t be able to keep up with ND’s explosive skill position players and that their undersized defensive line won’t stand up to the Irish offensive line. I agree that this will be a high scoring affair, but Notre Dame makes every game a close call. The nod goes to Navy, 45-42.
Showing posts with label Bengals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bengals. Show all posts
Friday, November 6, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
What We Learned: Bengals 17, Ravens 14
It was not a goo day for the state of Maryland. No matter where you went, the pain of football was evident, the Ravens lost, the Redskins lost, the Terps lost. In Baltimore this loss was very painful and now many people are in panic-mode. Obviously we are only five weeks in, but with the strength and depth of the AFC, things could be problematic for the Ravens soon, especially with Minnesota coming up.Things We Learned:
The Reason the Ravens Lost: The Bengals Played Better
It was not the referees or anything like that; the referees were fine. Give all the credit in the world to the Cincinnati Bengals. Their defense stuffed the Ravens offense and allowed next to nothing except one somewhat-fluke Ray Rice touchdown pass. Joe Flacco was constantly being pressured and the running game was not enough to win. Then on the flip side, the Bengals offense was constantly on the attack and led an 80-yard drive to win it all. Had the defense been off the field a little more, then everything for the Ravens might have been fine, but Carson Palmer is too good to be kept down. The Bengals played a great game and legitimately beat the Ravens, no two ways about it.
Conservative Offense? With no McGahee?
Cam Cameron chose a strange time and way to put a conservative offense on the field. Ray Rice did fine, but Willis McGahee saw almost no time on the field, and the Ravens kept running at strange times. Before this, Joe Flacco kept airing the ball, and although the complaint was that he was throwing too much, at least that offense was effective. The offense was terrible, and the reason why the Ravens were in bad shape all game. We hope that Cameron didn't lost confidence in Flacco for the game.
Next Draft: Ravens Need a Cornerback
There is no two ways about it. The current cornerbacks cannot handle the air attacks on the top teams. So far Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Carson Palmer all ripped apart Dominique Foxworth and Co., and next Brett Favre may have the chance. Although the unit is not bad, it is clear the Ravens need a top-tier, tall cornerback to cover the most dangerous receiver.
Ravens Need to be Ready for Minnesota
The Ravens have a problem, they are 3-2 and a number of AFC teams look solid, including two others from the AFC North. 11-5 might not be enough to secure a wild card berth. Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 with a solid passing attack led by you know who. Plus, Adrian Peterson is one of the best backs in the game. The defense will need to be ready plus Joe Flacco will need to get out of the funk; the Vikings will not be generous.
Harbaugh's Ravens are Disciplined
Obviously we are disappointed with the field play plus some of the hits. But after the game, the Ravens were not complaining about the refs or anything like that. They focused on what they did wrong. They know they have to improve, which is a good quality for this team to have.
(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)
Friday, October 9, 2009
Ravens-Bengals Preview: Cincy Threatens to Turn Division on its Head
Okay, so I am a little nervous in writing this preview. So far I have been ridiculously off in many of my predictions on this blog, but as far as the previews go I have been pretty solid. I am 4-0 this season up front, and my margins of victory were conservative, even in predicting that the Pats would win by 4. However, the team the Ravens are going up against this weekend is a wildcard. The 3-1 Bengals lost an embarrassing game against the Broncos but aside from that are undefeated, including a last minute drive to upend the defending champions. Baltimore will be charged with cutting down this early-season surprise and realign the top of the AFC North. After losing a game they could have won after last week’s errors, they won’t have room for many more in this division.
What I’m Wondering:
Will these cornerbacks improve?
Man do I ever hope so. They are looking pretty terrible right now, and won’t get much of a respite against a Bengals team that boasts Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco with Chris Henry waiting to take on Frank Walker. If Joe Flacco had that group of receivers, the Ravens could start printing home playoff tickets right now. Instead, Baltimore’s quick but undersized cornerbacks will have their hands full. Ed Reed is so occupied by cleaning up for blown coverages that he can’t make the plays he is accustomed to. Forcing the quarterback to throw is great… If you can stop the pass. The Ravens can’t do that right now.
Will the Ravens return to the run?
They would be very wise to. I believe that Cam Cameron needs to readjust his look back to what the Ravens are more built for- pounding the football. When you average 7.1 yards on the ground, that should be an indication of what the defense is giving you. I understand that the offense has grown to include more things, but it should not exclude what got them here. I have already talked about this before, but for this game, against this team, I will be pulling my hair out if Joe Flacco is dropping back anywhere near 40 times.
Are the Bengals a contender?
To make life difficult on the Ravens and Steelers? Yes. To win the division? No. This team is good, but the defense is too young and lacks true playmakers for Flacco to be afraid of. Yes, they boast the NFL’s sacks leader in Antwan Odom, but we have seen one-season wonders before, and Odom lacks the history to make me think that he will keep up his torrid pace. If Ray Rice is scuttling by him, it won’t make a difference what jump Odom has on the quarterback. Carson Palmer has been solid, but he isn’t yet back to Pro Bowl form. Even if he does return to form this weekend, he doesn’t have the supporting cast to beat the elite teams in the AFC week after week.
My Mildly Informed Analysis:
Ravens Defense vs. Bengals Offense
Cedric Benson has revived his career in Cincinnati after flaming out in Chicago, but he is not playing like the #4 overall pick by any stretch. He has been a serviceable back, but I would put him in the Chester Taylor category of running back- capable of starting, but in a perfect world I don’t have him start. The Ravens defensive line will swallow up Benson at the line of scrimmage, and while his tough running style will keep him from getting knocked backwards, he won’t pick up his 4.4 yards per carry. I will put him down for 50 or 60 yards at most on Sunday.
The Ravens defense will have to rely on its secondary to win this one on that side of the ball. Chad Ochocinco is out to prove that he is still an elite wide receiver and can back up his comedic behavior with solid play on the field. He leads the team with 17 receptions and 238 yards. He will beat whichever Ravens corner is assigned to him, as noted above. He’ll get his catches and probably a touchdown, which he has promised to follow up with a Ricky Bobby celebration. Baltimore will not be able to double Ochocinco or risk being burned by speedster Laveranues Coles. However, Coles isn’t known for being a very tough receiver, and if you can keep up with him down the field (which either Foxworth or Washington can do), you can cover him. I am more concerned with Chris Henry at the slot position against Frank Walker. If Carson Palmer can get into a rhythm and avoid Baltimore’s pressure, this could be a shootout.
Ravens Offense vs. Bengals Defense
Speaking of which, this is not a good defense the Ravens will have to face this weekend, regardless of the sacks that Antwan Odom has managed to rack up. The only major challenge I foresee comes from cornerback Leon Hall against Derrick Mason. Not because I necessarily think that Hall will shut him down, but only that he will cover him well enough to limit his production and force Joe Flacco to look at his other receivers. Johnathan Joseph is a solid corner as well and could give Mark Clayton some problems on the other side. The matchup I am looking at is Morgan Trent against Kelley Washington. I watched Trent victimized countless times on the sidelines of Michigan games, and Washington could have the size and speed to take on Trent’s only marginal quickness. Todd Heap should have opportunities as well, but keep an eye on the Bengals top two cornerbacks- they are the real deal.
Cam, run the football. Please. The Bengals are about average in the league, allowing 103 yards per game, but the Ravens should be able to pound the ball against a front 4 that features pass-rushing Antwan Odom and Tank Johnson, who hasn’t done much of anything in several years, having been cut by the Cowboys after last season. The Bengals have two athletic but inexperienced linebackers in Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga, but this part of the game can’t be broken down just by personnel. The Ravens identity as a team is to pound the opponent into the ground by running the football and breaking them down by the second half. The Bengals are off to a hot start and if they feel like they are in an air battle with the Ravens they will stay confident, knowing they have Carson Palmer on their side. Teams like this need their bubble burst early, and a heavy dose of the ground game goes a long way towards asserting one’s will over an opponent.
The Rundown
This game will depend on how crisp Carson Palmer is. If he plays like he did several years ago and Chad Ochocinco follows through on his promise to victimize the Ravens cornerbacks, the Bengals have a good shot to win this game. However, given the performances of the Ravens and Bengals against their common opponent, the Browns, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Baltimore has done a great job this season of converting long drives into points in ways that fans haven’t seen before. They keep it up this weekend and turn possessions into touchdowns.
The nod goes to the Ravens, 31-17.
What I’m Wondering:
Will these cornerbacks improve?
Man do I ever hope so. They are looking pretty terrible right now, and won’t get much of a respite against a Bengals team that boasts Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco with Chris Henry waiting to take on Frank Walker. If Joe Flacco had that group of receivers, the Ravens could start printing home playoff tickets right now. Instead, Baltimore’s quick but undersized cornerbacks will have their hands full. Ed Reed is so occupied by cleaning up for blown coverages that he can’t make the plays he is accustomed to. Forcing the quarterback to throw is great… If you can stop the pass. The Ravens can’t do that right now.
Will the Ravens return to the run?They would be very wise to. I believe that Cam Cameron needs to readjust his look back to what the Ravens are more built for- pounding the football. When you average 7.1 yards on the ground, that should be an indication of what the defense is giving you. I understand that the offense has grown to include more things, but it should not exclude what got them here. I have already talked about this before, but for this game, against this team, I will be pulling my hair out if Joe Flacco is dropping back anywhere near 40 times.
Are the Bengals a contender?
To make life difficult on the Ravens and Steelers? Yes. To win the division? No. This team is good, but the defense is too young and lacks true playmakers for Flacco to be afraid of. Yes, they boast the NFL’s sacks leader in Antwan Odom, but we have seen one-season wonders before, and Odom lacks the history to make me think that he will keep up his torrid pace. If Ray Rice is scuttling by him, it won’t make a difference what jump Odom has on the quarterback. Carson Palmer has been solid, but he isn’t yet back to Pro Bowl form. Even if he does return to form this weekend, he doesn’t have the supporting cast to beat the elite teams in the AFC week after week.
My Mildly Informed Analysis:
Ravens Defense vs. Bengals Offense
Cedric Benson has revived his career in Cincinnati after flaming out in Chicago, but he is not playing like the #4 overall pick by any stretch. He has been a serviceable back, but I would put him in the Chester Taylor category of running back- capable of starting, but in a perfect world I don’t have him start. The Ravens defensive line will swallow up Benson at the line of scrimmage, and while his tough running style will keep him from getting knocked backwards, he won’t pick up his 4.4 yards per carry. I will put him down for 50 or 60 yards at most on Sunday.
The Ravens defense will have to rely on its secondary to win this one on that side of the ball. Chad Ochocinco is out to prove that he is still an elite wide receiver and can back up his comedic behavior with solid play on the field. He leads the team with 17 receptions and 238 yards. He will beat whichever Ravens corner is assigned to him, as noted above. He’ll get his catches and probably a touchdown, which he has promised to follow up with a Ricky Bobby celebration. Baltimore will not be able to double Ochocinco or risk being burned by speedster Laveranues Coles. However, Coles isn’t known for being a very tough receiver, and if you can keep up with him down the field (which either Foxworth or Washington can do), you can cover him. I am more concerned with Chris Henry at the slot position against Frank Walker. If Carson Palmer can get into a rhythm and avoid Baltimore’s pressure, this could be a shootout.
Ravens Offense vs. Bengals Defense
Speaking of which, this is not a good defense the Ravens will have to face this weekend, regardless of the sacks that Antwan Odom has managed to rack up. The only major challenge I foresee comes from cornerback Leon Hall against Derrick Mason. Not because I necessarily think that Hall will shut him down, but only that he will cover him well enough to limit his production and force Joe Flacco to look at his other receivers. Johnathan Joseph is a solid corner as well and could give Mark Clayton some problems on the other side. The matchup I am looking at is Morgan Trent against Kelley Washington. I watched Trent victimized countless times on the sidelines of Michigan games, and Washington could have the size and speed to take on Trent’s only marginal quickness. Todd Heap should have opportunities as well, but keep an eye on the Bengals top two cornerbacks- they are the real deal.
Cam, run the football. Please. The Bengals are about average in the league, allowing 103 yards per game, but the Ravens should be able to pound the ball against a front 4 that features pass-rushing Antwan Odom and Tank Johnson, who hasn’t done much of anything in several years, having been cut by the Cowboys after last season. The Bengals have two athletic but inexperienced linebackers in Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga, but this part of the game can’t be broken down just by personnel. The Ravens identity as a team is to pound the opponent into the ground by running the football and breaking them down by the second half. The Bengals are off to a hot start and if they feel like they are in an air battle with the Ravens they will stay confident, knowing they have Carson Palmer on their side. Teams like this need their bubble burst early, and a heavy dose of the ground game goes a long way towards asserting one’s will over an opponent.
The Rundown
This game will depend on how crisp Carson Palmer is. If he plays like he did several years ago and Chad Ochocinco follows through on his promise to victimize the Ravens cornerbacks, the Bengals have a good shot to win this game. However, given the performances of the Ravens and Bengals against their common opponent, the Browns, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Baltimore has done a great job this season of converting long drives into points in ways that fans haven’t seen before. They keep it up this weekend and turn possessions into touchdowns.
The nod goes to the Ravens, 31-17.
Friday, January 2, 2009
Free Kicks- Coaching Carousel Edition, Part Deux
With the NFL regular season behind us (though luckily for us Ravens fans more football to come), it is time for another coaching carousel edition of Free Kicks. However, this time I have a different tone. This round of firings was downright confusing. I will put Mike Shanahan aside for this, because that one was just ridiculous. But there are a lot of other questionable calls going on, and some more to come (with Herm Edwards’ status yet to be decided). Windsor and I will be on the road all day Friday and Saturday, so thanks to Falco in advance for covering the preview for this week. Hopefully I’ll get a chance to do one next week, huh? Let’s line up for the kick…
Who Should be Gone?
Marvin Lewis- What has this guy done not to get fired? Yes, Carson Palmer got injured, but it wasn’t as though the Pro Bowl quarterback had done anything but struggle before then. This defensive coach has had an awful defense every year he has been there, the lone exception being in 2005 when a turnover happy D masked its yardage deficiencies. In fact, even forget that. This coach has had all of one winning season in his 6 years at the helm of the Cincinnati Bengals, and has gone 8-8 in 3 other years. But Cincinnati fans knew this would be a long turnaround when he was hired… but there hasn’t exactly been any consistent improvement. After avoiding a losing
season for the first 4 years of his tenure, his teams have gone 7-9 and 4-12 since. This team has no traction and isn’t going anywhere next season. Finally, and most appalling, is the discipline record of this team. Arrests relating to giving alcohol to minors, burglary, vandalism, domestic violence, possession of a concealed firearm, etc. have plagued this team, and Marvin Lewis presided over it. The Bengals never took the proactive measures of suspending the player before the NFL did. Bengals fans should be ashamed that the organization hasn’t done what they need to turn this talented team into a winning one.
Who Shouldn’t be Gone?
Eric Mangini- The man is already getting called in for the Browns job, and he deserves to be right back in the head coaching seat. No, I never thought he was a Man-genius, but he is a solid head coach. During the season we heard consistent reports of Mangini calling Brett Favre into his office and telling him to be more responsible with the football. He didn’t acquire Brett, he didn’t release Chad Pennington. Moreover, he shouldn’t have benched Favre down the stretch- who benches a Hall of Famer for Kellen Clemons? Clemons had been handed the job the previous year and handed it right back to Mangini; he had no where else to go but Favre. Every day we hear more about how Brett’s attitude was sour and polluted that locker room. So if Brett’s poor performance can’t be blamed on Mangini, then why is he out of a job? I don’t care about the free agent acquisitions or the mid-season expectations, he orchestrated a 5 game turnaround for this franchise, and if I were the Jets, I would have patted the head coach on the back, not handed him a pink slip.
The Jury’s Still Out on this One…
Herm Edwards- I am not sure why people are so allied with Herm Edwards. For a man who “plays to win the game” he wasn’t able to do that much with the Chiefs so far this season. This season aside, he doesn’t exactly have a pedigree for success to fall back on to take to his detractors (Edwards was a .500 coach with the Jets before bottoming out with the Chiefs). His team did suffer through a rash of injuries and incompetent quarterback play, but wasn’t some of that lack of depth brought on himself? He chose to go with Brodie Croyle, chose to get rid of Trent Green for Damon Huard, etc. The only QB who had decent success with the team was Tyler Thigpen, who was an afterthought third stringer on the team. Look, I like Herm Edwards, and maybe he deserves another year just because of all the difficult circumstances he had to face this year, or the way his team played tough every week. But 2 wins? That is tough if you don’t have a record for winning- and his 54-74 lifetime coaching record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Who Should be Gone?
Marvin Lewis- What has this guy done not to get fired? Yes, Carson Palmer got injured, but it wasn’t as though the Pro Bowl quarterback had done anything but struggle before then. This defensive coach has had an awful defense every year he has been there, the lone exception being in 2005 when a turnover happy D masked its yardage deficiencies. In fact, even forget that. This coach has had all of one winning season in his 6 years at the helm of the Cincinnati Bengals, and has gone 8-8 in 3 other years. But Cincinnati fans knew this would be a long turnaround when he was hired… but there hasn’t exactly been any consistent improvement. After avoiding a losing
season for the first 4 years of his tenure, his teams have gone 7-9 and 4-12 since. This team has no traction and isn’t going anywhere next season. Finally, and most appalling, is the discipline record of this team. Arrests relating to giving alcohol to minors, burglary, vandalism, domestic violence, possession of a concealed firearm, etc. have plagued this team, and Marvin Lewis presided over it. The Bengals never took the proactive measures of suspending the player before the NFL did. Bengals fans should be ashamed that the organization hasn’t done what they need to turn this talented team into a winning one.Who Shouldn’t be Gone?
Eric Mangini- The man is already getting called in for the Browns job, and he deserves to be right back in the head coaching seat. No, I never thought he was a Man-genius, but he is a solid head coach. During the season we heard consistent reports of Mangini calling Brett Favre into his office and telling him to be more responsible with the football. He didn’t acquire Brett, he didn’t release Chad Pennington. Moreover, he shouldn’t have benched Favre down the stretch- who benches a Hall of Famer for Kellen Clemons? Clemons had been handed the job the previous year and handed it right back to Mangini; he had no where else to go but Favre. Every day we hear more about how Brett’s attitude was sour and polluted that locker room. So if Brett’s poor performance can’t be blamed on Mangini, then why is he out of a job? I don’t care about the free agent acquisitions or the mid-season expectations, he orchestrated a 5 game turnaround for this franchise, and if I were the Jets, I would have patted the head coach on the back, not handed him a pink slip.
The Jury’s Still Out on this One…
Herm Edwards- I am not sure why people are so allied with Herm Edwards. For a man who “plays to win the game” he wasn’t able to do that much with the Chiefs so far this season. This season aside, he doesn’t exactly have a pedigree for success to fall back on to take to his detractors (Edwards was a .500 coach with the Jets before bottoming out with the Chiefs). His team did suffer through a rash of injuries and incompetent quarterback play, but wasn’t some of that lack of depth brought on himself? He chose to go with Brodie Croyle, chose to get rid of Trent Green for Damon Huard, etc. The only QB who had decent success with the team was Tyler Thigpen, who was an afterthought third stringer on the team. Look, I like Herm Edwards, and maybe he deserves another year just because of all the difficult circumstances he had to face this year, or the way his team played tough every week. But 2 wins? That is tough if you don’t have a record for winning- and his 54-74 lifetime coaching record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Ravens-Bengals Preview: As Playoffs Approach, "Can Win" equals "Must Win"
Thanks to Falco for holding down the fort and doing both the pregame and postgame for the Terps on Saturday! Windsor and I were visiting our families over the break and barely had time for the free kick on Friday. However, we are sure to be home for the Ravens…
Make no mistake, Cincinnati wants this one badly. Baltimore better want it too. With upcoming games against Dallas, Washington, and Pittsburgh, the Ravens will need every win they can get to cling to that #6 spot in the wildcard race or have a whisper of a hope to win the division outright. Putting away the 1-9-1 Bengals won’t make the Ravens climb the power rankings or get them a segment on Sportscenter, but it will be another AFC win that will be essential when the litany of tiebreakers go into effect. The home team, for their part, has been playing its recent opponents tough since taking down Jacksonville and clawing from the ranks of the “beaten.” The mantra of this team has been to beat the teams they should beat (and lose to the others, but I doubt that is part of the plan), and luckily for them, this should be a late-season tune up. But much stranger things have happened, and I still have my questions.
What I’m Wondering:
Will Joe Play it Safe?
This week will be about mistake-free football. The Ravens are the better team, but the Bengals were tenacious against Donovan McNabb and even Ben Roethlisberger, forcing turnovers and staying in the ball game deep into the second half against the Steelers. The problem however, has been that their offense is more inept than a Kyle Boller squad. In fact, their performance in recent weeks has reminded me of the 11-5 Bengals squad of 3 years ago that won on a huge turnover margin but petered out when Carson Palmer was downed in the 1st quarter of the wildcard round against Pittsburgh. Do I think that this team is suddenly that good? Of course not, but the D has not packed it in for the season. Joe Flacco has kept a cool head this season and hasn’t shown the tendency to play down to competition, but this week will be a test in that regard. The Ravens quarterback ought not assume anything against the Bengals secondary or risk giving the Cincy offense easy opportunities to score. Will the Ravens quarterback take the inferior opponent for granted or patiently carve them up underneath?
How many turnovers/sacks for the Ravens D?
I cannot feign a serious anxiety about the Bengals’ ability to hold onto the ball or protect backup-turned-starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is a consummate backup- not good, not terrible, but not someone you want starting more than a game or two, especially on a team whose offense was struggling even before Palmer went down. This game is not a question of if, but when the Bengals make a horrific mistake. The Ravens defense returned with a vengeance against the Eagles after being gashed by the Giants, will that intensity hold up? Being a divisional game, it might. However, with the upcoming schedule, the defense could be tempted to look ahead as it did against the Browns for the first 3 quarters of their second matchup of the season. To sweep the season series, the Ravens will have to create
opportunities for the offense to work with a short field and come away with points early and force the Bengals to attempt to come from behind. Will the Ravens defense make the 3rd year backup attempt to beat them with his arm or come out slow out of the gate and let the Bengals win field position?
Which of the Three Running Backs will succeed against the Bengals?
Willis McGahee has had his big games this season. So has Ray Rice. Last week, LaRon McClain bulldozed the Eagles for 88 yards and 1 score. Which back will perform the best this week? I’m leaning towards a repeat of McClain against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. The Bengals are like any other team 8 games under .500- they are playing tough but ready to break when they get into a hole. The best way to break a team is by sending a bruiser up the middle and dragging the linebackers for a few yards at a time. However, if the Bengals decide to pin their ears back and attack the line of scrimmage, don’t be surprised to see more screens to get the other backs involved? Who will have the biggest game? It might be a combination, but I wanted to ask anyway.
My Mildly Informed Analysis:
The Bengals cannot score. Were it not for T.J. Houshmanzadeh and Chad Johnson, there would be little reason for them to not punt on 1st down and hope for a defensive touchdown. Perhaps I am exaggerating, let me backtrack here so we can break down what the Ravens will actually be facing. The Bengals running game is 29th in the NFL at a paltry 80.0 yards per game. Even if they exceed that by 50% or more (unlikely against the still stingy Ravens run defense), it wouldn’t be enough to put them in the top 3rd of the league! Why? The departure of reliable back Rudi Johnson is the easy explanation, but this team was still in the bottom half of the league when he was there last year. I would point to the lack of a threat from the quarterback position, allowing opponents to stack 8 or 9 men in the box to stop the run and daring Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them… and he won’t.
But before we go onto the sexy passing game, let’s keep on the ground. The addition of Cedric Benson did provide a brief spark to the Bengals running game, but we would be wise to keep it in perspective. After a 104 yard, 4.3 yard per carry effort against Jacksonville (currently sitting at 4-7, for what it’s worth), the former Chicago 1st round pick and legendary drunken boater has since been given 39 carries for 77 yards, worse than a 2 yard average. Clearly teams caught on rather quickly to the addition of Benson, and I doubt his running style- predictable and not powerful enough to get away with it will be a problem for Haloti Ngata. Now watch him gash the Ravens for 140 yards runaway-beer-truck style…
The Harvard boy quarterbacks the worst offense in the NFL. Yes, dead last. That is, the Lions, Raiders, and Rams can all claim more competent yardage numbers, and it isn’t close. As far as points are concerned, a paltry 13.5 points per game is good for 31st, edging out the Rams. For his part however, Fitzpatrick has not been awful on paper. In fact, his numbers are similar to what Joe Flacco’s were 8 games into the season- completing 61% of his passes for 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions- about what you would expect out of a backup in this league. All of you who think a Pro Bowler should be the team’s backup can shut up and get a clue. Backups are supposed to be mediocre, and Fitzpatrick is run-of-the-mill backup material. What is holding him back is his embarrassing 4.9 yards per attempt, which is shocking given the big-play receivers available to him. Either his nerves are keeping him holding the ball too long or his receivers aren’t getting open or he is getting too much pressure to launch the ball deep. We have a winner! Bengals quarterbacks have been sacked an astonishing 39 times this season; only the Lions and 9ers are worse.
Is there any question what the Ravens defensive strategy will be? In case you just stumbled on this blog for the first time… The Ravens will blitz early, often, and from as many directions as possible to fluster and confuse Fitzpatrick the same way the Steelers did a couple weeks ago. Once the running game is contained, this front 7 will pin its ears back and hit Fitzpatrick until he is nervous to take the snap. The secondary might be left on man against a talented group of receivers, but I doubt Fitzpatrick will have much time to consider the matchups, much less throw the ball accurately.
Wow, I just spent an awful lot of time on the 32nd ranked offense against the #3 ranked defense. I may have just written more about the Bengals offense than anyone has been able to all season… there is a reason for that, read on.
Luckily, there is a much more intriguing matchup on the defensive end. The Bengals have the reputation for hemorrhaging points, and it is still true this season as they are in the bottom half of the league with 25.1 points per game allowed, roughly in line with their status from last season. However, they are doing this despite being given much worse field position and a much more mistake-prone offense than any time in recent history (i.e. since Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna). How? I referenced to turnovers earlier, but that was what gave the Bengals the tie with the Eagles, and what sealed the win against the Jaguars. Honestly, it comes down to a passing defense that, while only tallying 8 interceptions all season, is still in the middle of the league in yardage allowed. This is probably a misleading statistic, however. The Bengals have been behind so often there has been little motivation for teams to pass the football for long gains. Teams much prefer to run on them, as they rank 7th in the league in most rushing attempts against.
Does this playbook sound familiar? This sounds very promising for teams that like to run the ball and try to pass conservatively in safe situations. Like the Ravens? Yea, I thought so. We don’t know a whole lot about the Bengals defense because of the state of their offense and the situations they are placed under. The way the Bengals offense plays will be much more indicative of how many points the Ravens can score than will the Bengals defense.
The Rundown
I don’t see how the Bengals win this one aside from pure unadulterated hate and the unpredictable nature of divisional games. The Ravens’ gameplan plays right into the Bengals weaknesses, and if Baltimore’s defense forces an early turnover or helps the offense jump out to a double-digit lead, this could be over quickly. Don’t look for Coach Harbaugh to get fancy this week; he will get a lead and beat Cincy down for the rest of the afternoon.
The nod goes to the Ravens, 27-6
Make no mistake, Cincinnati wants this one badly. Baltimore better want it too. With upcoming games against Dallas, Washington, and Pittsburgh, the Ravens will need every win they can get to cling to that #6 spot in the wildcard race or have a whisper of a hope to win the division outright. Putting away the 1-9-1 Bengals won’t make the Ravens climb the power rankings or get them a segment on Sportscenter, but it will be another AFC win that will be essential when the litany of tiebreakers go into effect. The home team, for their part, has been playing its recent opponents tough since taking down Jacksonville and clawing from the ranks of the “beaten.” The mantra of this team has been to beat the teams they should beat (and lose to the others, but I doubt that is part of the plan), and luckily for them, this should be a late-season tune up. But much stranger things have happened, and I still have my questions.
What I’m Wondering:
Will Joe Play it Safe?
This week will be about mistake-free football. The Ravens are the better team, but the Bengals were tenacious against Donovan McNabb and even Ben Roethlisberger, forcing turnovers and staying in the ball game deep into the second half against the Steelers. The problem however, has been that their offense is more inept than a Kyle Boller squad. In fact, their performance in recent weeks has reminded me of the 11-5 Bengals squad of 3 years ago that won on a huge turnover margin but petered out when Carson Palmer was downed in the 1st quarter of the wildcard round against Pittsburgh. Do I think that this team is suddenly that good? Of course not, but the D has not packed it in for the season. Joe Flacco has kept a cool head this season and hasn’t shown the tendency to play down to competition, but this week will be a test in that regard. The Ravens quarterback ought not assume anything against the Bengals secondary or risk giving the Cincy offense easy opportunities to score. Will the Ravens quarterback take the inferior opponent for granted or patiently carve them up underneath?
How many turnovers/sacks for the Ravens D?
I cannot feign a serious anxiety about the Bengals’ ability to hold onto the ball or protect backup-turned-starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is a consummate backup- not good, not terrible, but not someone you want starting more than a game or two, especially on a team whose offense was struggling even before Palmer went down. This game is not a question of if, but when the Bengals make a horrific mistake. The Ravens defense returned with a vengeance against the Eagles after being gashed by the Giants, will that intensity hold up? Being a divisional game, it might. However, with the upcoming schedule, the defense could be tempted to look ahead as it did against the Browns for the first 3 quarters of their second matchup of the season. To sweep the season series, the Ravens will have to create
opportunities for the offense to work with a short field and come away with points early and force the Bengals to attempt to come from behind. Will the Ravens defense make the 3rd year backup attempt to beat them with his arm or come out slow out of the gate and let the Bengals win field position?Which of the Three Running Backs will succeed against the Bengals?
Willis McGahee has had his big games this season. So has Ray Rice. Last week, LaRon McClain bulldozed the Eagles for 88 yards and 1 score. Which back will perform the best this week? I’m leaning towards a repeat of McClain against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. The Bengals are like any other team 8 games under .500- they are playing tough but ready to break when they get into a hole. The best way to break a team is by sending a bruiser up the middle and dragging the linebackers for a few yards at a time. However, if the Bengals decide to pin their ears back and attack the line of scrimmage, don’t be surprised to see more screens to get the other backs involved? Who will have the biggest game? It might be a combination, but I wanted to ask anyway.
My Mildly Informed Analysis:
The Bengals cannot score. Were it not for T.J. Houshmanzadeh and Chad Johnson, there would be little reason for them to not punt on 1st down and hope for a defensive touchdown. Perhaps I am exaggerating, let me backtrack here so we can break down what the Ravens will actually be facing. The Bengals running game is 29th in the NFL at a paltry 80.0 yards per game. Even if they exceed that by 50% or more (unlikely against the still stingy Ravens run defense), it wouldn’t be enough to put them in the top 3rd of the league! Why? The departure of reliable back Rudi Johnson is the easy explanation, but this team was still in the bottom half of the league when he was there last year. I would point to the lack of a threat from the quarterback position, allowing opponents to stack 8 or 9 men in the box to stop the run and daring Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them… and he won’t.
But before we go onto the sexy passing game, let’s keep on the ground. The addition of Cedric Benson did provide a brief spark to the Bengals running game, but we would be wise to keep it in perspective. After a 104 yard, 4.3 yard per carry effort against Jacksonville (currently sitting at 4-7, for what it’s worth), the former Chicago 1st round pick and legendary drunken boater has since been given 39 carries for 77 yards, worse than a 2 yard average. Clearly teams caught on rather quickly to the addition of Benson, and I doubt his running style- predictable and not powerful enough to get away with it will be a problem for Haloti Ngata. Now watch him gash the Ravens for 140 yards runaway-beer-truck style…
The Harvard boy quarterbacks the worst offense in the NFL. Yes, dead last. That is, the Lions, Raiders, and Rams can all claim more competent yardage numbers, and it isn’t close. As far as points are concerned, a paltry 13.5 points per game is good for 31st, edging out the Rams. For his part however, Fitzpatrick has not been awful on paper. In fact, his numbers are similar to what Joe Flacco’s were 8 games into the season- completing 61% of his passes for 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions- about what you would expect out of a backup in this league. All of you who think a Pro Bowler should be the team’s backup can shut up and get a clue. Backups are supposed to be mediocre, and Fitzpatrick is run-of-the-mill backup material. What is holding him back is his embarrassing 4.9 yards per attempt, which is shocking given the big-play receivers available to him. Either his nerves are keeping him holding the ball too long or his receivers aren’t getting open or he is getting too much pressure to launch the ball deep. We have a winner! Bengals quarterbacks have been sacked an astonishing 39 times this season; only the Lions and 9ers are worse.
Is there any question what the Ravens defensive strategy will be? In case you just stumbled on this blog for the first time… The Ravens will blitz early, often, and from as many directions as possible to fluster and confuse Fitzpatrick the same way the Steelers did a couple weeks ago. Once the running game is contained, this front 7 will pin its ears back and hit Fitzpatrick until he is nervous to take the snap. The secondary might be left on man against a talented group of receivers, but I doubt Fitzpatrick will have much time to consider the matchups, much less throw the ball accurately.
Wow, I just spent an awful lot of time on the 32nd ranked offense against the #3 ranked defense. I may have just written more about the Bengals offense than anyone has been able to all season… there is a reason for that, read on.
Luckily, there is a much more intriguing matchup on the defensive end. The Bengals have the reputation for hemorrhaging points, and it is still true this season as they are in the bottom half of the league with 25.1 points per game allowed, roughly in line with their status from last season. However, they are doing this despite being given much worse field position and a much more mistake-prone offense than any time in recent history (i.e. since Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna). How? I referenced to turnovers earlier, but that was what gave the Bengals the tie with the Eagles, and what sealed the win against the Jaguars. Honestly, it comes down to a passing defense that, while only tallying 8 interceptions all season, is still in the middle of the league in yardage allowed. This is probably a misleading statistic, however. The Bengals have been behind so often there has been little motivation for teams to pass the football for long gains. Teams much prefer to run on them, as they rank 7th in the league in most rushing attempts against.
Does this playbook sound familiar? This sounds very promising for teams that like to run the ball and try to pass conservatively in safe situations. Like the Ravens? Yea, I thought so. We don’t know a whole lot about the Bengals defense because of the state of their offense and the situations they are placed under. The way the Bengals offense plays will be much more indicative of how many points the Ravens can score than will the Bengals defense.
The Rundown
I don’t see how the Bengals win this one aside from pure unadulterated hate and the unpredictable nature of divisional games. The Ravens’ gameplan plays right into the Bengals weaknesses, and if Baltimore’s defense forces an early turnover or helps the offense jump out to a double-digit lead, this could be over quickly. Don’t look for Coach Harbaugh to get fancy this week; he will get a lead and beat Cincy down for the rest of the afternoon.
The nod goes to the Ravens, 27-6
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Not Every Team Bucking Fate This Season
If I have one weakness when it comes to sports, I play the numbers a little too much. I look into the matchups for statistical gaps, check quality of opponents, check style of offense and defense, look at individual playmakers and how they will complement what the opposition throws at them. From all of this I try to make a determination on who will win- as though you could give me some film with all the logos blurred out and I could make an unbiased prediction. But sometimes you need to remember the names on the jerseys, the logo of what teams are playing, the coaches on the sidelines and who, when it comes right down to it, will just win it.
As you can imagine, that was going through my head right when Peyton threw his third touchdown pass of the day over the heads of Ravens defenders in every sense of the word. I’m not mad, clearly the Ravens weren’t “who we thought they were”- and who could expect them to be? They are not an upper echelon team. They can beat the bottom dwellers and might be able to take a heavyweight to 12 rounds now and then, but they are not ready just yet to contend- not after that performance.
The Colts appear to have the Ravens’ number, and it is naïve of us perhaps to assume that Peyton was not going to get back on track sooner or later. While appalling (I think Windsor’s report card covers it), we have to consider other issues in sports this year that have revealed that regardless of the circumstances, some teams are just supposed to lose…
The Cubs. Allow me to let that sink in a minute… the Cubs. #1 in the National League, with 3 potential aces in their staff perfectly set up for a 5 game series. The Dodgers, while a hot team over the last 2 months of the season, were being carried by a single player in Manny Ramirez and were using a brand new lineup for the NLDS, one they had not tried all season. Additionally, the Dodgers squeaked into the playoffs in a division that was the only one in baseball not to have more than one team above .500. Even the Dodgers weren’t consistently above .500 until September! But we all knew in our hearts that somehow the Cubs would lose this one- no Bartman to blame this time…
Cincinnati Bengals. Can we start calling them the Bungles again yet? No matter what I am pretty sure we can start calling Marvin Lewis “fired”. He should have been gone after last season, but he most certainly will be gone after this one. Don’t blame Carson Palmer’s injury either, the team wasn’t winning with him in there either. The Bengals, to their credit, did push the Cowboys and the Giants to the brink. In fact, they have come close to winning on several occasions this season. But that is exactly what the Bengals do. They lose, no matter what seems to happen. I am not sure that it will be a permanent return to the cellar for Cincinnati (with Palmer under center for years to come I doubt it), but one gets the sense that a return to normalcy might be in order along the Ohio River. Unfortunately, normalcy is tough on Bengals fans.
And then, sometimes teams don’t care if they are supposed to lose or not…
Who thought the Rays would be here? If you are raising your hand, you are lying. The country it seems is pulling for them (myself included) and after last night’s 9-1 whomping of would-be ace Jon Lester, the Rays might legitimately have a shot. Their rise this season has defied all numbers, all predictions, all possible logic of sports. No playoff experience, no history of success, the toughest division in baseball, fade down the stretch- all of it either hasn’t mattered or hasn’t happened. At this point the Rays hold a 2-1 series advantage against the reigning World Champion Boston Red Sox, and while all logic indicated that Boston still has the edge, you feel as though the sports gods are bending the world just a little to let David hit a walk-off home run against Goliath.
Photo Credit: [Chicago Tribute: Nuccio DiNuzzo]
As you can imagine, that was going through my head right when Peyton threw his third touchdown pass of the day over the heads of Ravens defenders in every sense of the word. I’m not mad, clearly the Ravens weren’t “who we thought they were”- and who could expect them to be? They are not an upper echelon team. They can beat the bottom dwellers and might be able to take a heavyweight to 12 rounds now and then, but they are not ready just yet to contend- not after that performance.
The Colts appear to have the Ravens’ number, and it is naïve of us perhaps to assume that Peyton was not going to get back on track sooner or later. While appalling (I think Windsor’s report card covers it), we have to consider other issues in sports this year that have revealed that regardless of the circumstances, some teams are just supposed to lose…
The Cubs. Allow me to let that sink in a minute… the Cubs. #1 in the National League, with 3 potential aces in their staff perfectly set up for a 5 game series. The Dodgers, while a hot team over the last 2 months of the season, were being carried by a single player in Manny Ramirez and were using a brand new lineup for the NLDS, one they had not tried all season. Additionally, the Dodgers squeaked into the playoffs in a division that was the only one in baseball not to have more than one team above .500. Even the Dodgers weren’t consistently above .500 until September! But we all knew in our hearts that somehow the Cubs would lose this one- no Bartman to blame this time…Cincinnati Bengals. Can we start calling them the Bungles again yet? No matter what I am pretty sure we can start calling Marvin Lewis “fired”. He should have been gone after last season, but he most certainly will be gone after this one. Don’t blame Carson Palmer’s injury either, the team wasn’t winning with him in there either. The Bengals, to their credit, did push the Cowboys and the Giants to the brink. In fact, they have come close to winning on several occasions this season. But that is exactly what the Bengals do. They lose, no matter what seems to happen. I am not sure that it will be a permanent return to the cellar for Cincinnati (with Palmer under center for years to come I doubt it), but one gets the sense that a return to normalcy might be in order along the Ohio River. Unfortunately, normalcy is tough on Bengals fans.
And then, sometimes teams don’t care if they are supposed to lose or not…
Who thought the Rays would be here? If you are raising your hand, you are lying. The country it seems is pulling for them (myself included) and after last night’s 9-1 whomping of would-be ace Jon Lester, the Rays might legitimately have a shot. Their rise this season has defied all numbers, all predictions, all possible logic of sports. No playoff experience, no history of success, the toughest division in baseball, fade down the stretch- all of it either hasn’t mattered or hasn’t happened. At this point the Rays hold a 2-1 series advantage against the reigning World Champion Boston Red Sox, and while all logic indicated that Boston still has the edge, you feel as though the sports gods are bending the world just a little to let David hit a walk-off home run against Goliath.
Photo Credit: [Chicago Tribute: Nuccio DiNuzzo]
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
A Win is Great, but Ravens Biggest Weaknesses Yet to be Tested
Well, at least one Maryland team is looking good so far, but how much can we take out of the 17-10 win over the Bengals? This early in the season we need to ask whether the Ravens that good or the Bengals are that bad. No matter what, this game featured two teams in the bottom half of the league, with a combined record of 12-20 last season. Additionally, the Ravens offense was facing a defense that could not get to the quarterback to save their lives. In retrospect, this may have been the best possible team to open the season. This is a far cry from my preview, but I don’t think anyone expected that rookie quarterback to be replaced with whoever that guy was. But let’s temper our expectations a bit before we anoint him as the savior at the quarterback position just yet.
Joe Flacco looked poised in the pocket and wasn’t afraid to roll out and try to make plays with this feet- the offensive line (and Bengals defensive line) gave Flacco all the time in the world and dared him to slice them up in the passing game. He didn’t, throwing for only 129 yards. However, he didn’t turn the ball over either. That is the most important statistic for me; that he didn’t fumble and never threw the ball to the opposing team. Unfortunately this will not be the case for most of the season, should he remain the starting quarterback. Before anyone cheers that we have the next Randall Cunningham, take another look at the film on that 38 yard touchdown run. The Bengals were falling all over one another, and too slow to react to give an effective pursuit. Joe Flacco is not that fleet-of-foot, and the play was more a result of poor defense than excellent running.
One of the Ravens’ major weaknesses, the patchwork offensive line, was not at all tested this week. Not every team the Ravens face will be last in the league in sacks, and the offensive line could struggle as early as this week against the likes of Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans. It will be interesting to see how Flacco reacts when under pressure or actually is forced to make a play at the end of a game. He will not always be able to sit back, order delivery, and read a magazine before he has to throw the ball.
He didn’t have to be a hero with a defense that stifled the Bengals, holding them to only 3 offensive points. The offense never had to get that one first down, was never really under any stress to score points. That can make life pretty easy for the quarterback and the offense in genera. But let’s not be so quick to say that the defense is 100% back to form either. The issue has never been whether this defense was incredible when everyone is healthy. That assumption would be ridiculous- the issue has always been whether the defense could stay healthy for an entire season. In that sense the Ravens should be most grateful that they didn’t incur any serious injuries, but beyond that it should be considered slightly better than we could expect, but by no means beyond what this team is capable of.
Ravens fans are eager this year for good news, and this game was perfect for that. However, it is one game of 16, and the other 15 will be a lot tougher than this one. The Ravens boast one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL, but this was nevertheless a good start. In any sport, as long as you win the games you are supposed to win and split the others you will have a good season. The Ravens are on their way to the former, we will find out in a few weeks whether they can do the latter.
Joe Flacco looked poised in the pocket and wasn’t afraid to roll out and try to make plays with this feet- the offensive line (and Bengals defensive line) gave Flacco all the time in the world and dared him to slice them up in the passing game. He didn’t, throwing for only 129 yards. However, he didn’t turn the ball over either. That is the most important statistic for me; that he didn’t fumble and never threw the ball to the opposing team. Unfortunately this will not be the case for most of the season, should he remain the starting quarterback. Before anyone cheers that we have the next Randall Cunningham, take another look at the film on that 38 yard touchdown run. The Bengals were falling all over one another, and too slow to react to give an effective pursuit. Joe Flacco is not that fleet-of-foot, and the play was more a result of poor defense than excellent running.One of the Ravens’ major weaknesses, the patchwork offensive line, was not at all tested this week. Not every team the Ravens face will be last in the league in sacks, and the offensive line could struggle as early as this week against the likes of Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans. It will be interesting to see how Flacco reacts when under pressure or actually is forced to make a play at the end of a game. He will not always be able to sit back, order delivery, and read a magazine before he has to throw the ball.
He didn’t have to be a hero with a defense that stifled the Bengals, holding them to only 3 offensive points. The offense never had to get that one first down, was never really under any stress to score points. That can make life pretty easy for the quarterback and the offense in genera. But let’s not be so quick to say that the defense is 100% back to form either. The issue has never been whether this defense was incredible when everyone is healthy. That assumption would be ridiculous- the issue has always been whether the defense could stay healthy for an entire season. In that sense the Ravens should be most grateful that they didn’t incur any serious injuries, but beyond that it should be considered slightly better than we could expect, but by no means beyond what this team is capable of.
Ravens fans are eager this year for good news, and this game was perfect for that. However, it is one game of 16, and the other 15 will be a lot tougher than this one. The Ravens boast one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL, but this was nevertheless a good start. In any sport, as long as you win the games you are supposed to win and split the others you will have a good season. The Ravens are on their way to the former, we will find out in a few weeks whether they can do the latter.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Ravens-Bengals Preview: It's New, but how Different?
Okay, wow. I recommend everyone sit back and try to forget what you saw in Tennessee. It is a dark and evil place that we don’t have to worry about… at least until the Ravens play the Titans. Right now I am afraid of whatever comes out of there. Unfortunately I have been given the unenviable task of trying to get everyone’s mind off of the Terps and onto the Ravens opening weekend at home against the not-so-retooled and slightly less criminal (Chris Henry not withstanding) Cincinnati Bengals. In that spirit, prepare yourself for a long and involved preview to whet your appetite for NFL action in Baltimore.
The Ravens are hoping to open strong against an opponent that shocked them last year, providing a sneak peak at the collapse that followed en route to a 6-10 season. This year the Bengals begin the season hoping to continue their high powered offensive attack while bolstering their defense with first round pick Keith Rivers starting at outside linebacker. The Ravens however open with offensive questions at quarterback, along the offensive line, the tight ends… everywhere. The defense hopes to prove to critics that it is not “too old” just yet, and can hang together well enough to make up for the scoring deficiencies once again.
What I’m Wondering:
Will Flacco be on his Back(o)?
Joe Flacco is a rookie, we all understand that- so I won’t waste everyone’s time saying he is going to struggle, etc. What we should watch for is whether the offensive line can keep him upright long enough to make decent plays downfield. That big arm is good for something, but it isn’t worth anything if he doesn’t have time. Luckily the Bengals have never been particularly good at rushing the passer, registering only 22 sacks all of last season, putting them dead last in sacks in the NFL. Will the acquisition of former Bengal Willie Anderson help the o-line? Probably not this week, but he could be a starter sooner rather than later.
How many stretchers will the defense need?
Last season, Ravens defensive starters lost a total of 33 games due to injury, and it showed. The loss of Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle for large chunks of the season caused second year safety Dawan Landry to take a significant step back from his rookie season and the defense to end the season ranked 23rd in points allowed with 24 points per game. Terrible offensive play didn’t help the D, but that shouldn’t get any better this year. Should the D go through the same rash of injuries this year, you can forget any hopes of a .500 season. This is not a deep team, and any missing starter will show.
Same ol’ offense?
Cam Cameron, offensive genius comes over to work his magic with a formerly hapless unit. Have we heard this before? Luckily, he isn’t coming here as a head coach. Unfortunately, I didn’t see anything in the preseason that showed me anything new from this offense- nor did I see it in Miami last year when he ran the train wreck of the Dolphins’ 1-15 season. Let’s not forget, LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t exactly walking into Owings Mills anytime soon. However, we know a coaching staff never shows its cards during the preseason. Even so, look for more creative play calling (especially if Willis McGahee makes a miraculous recovery for tomorrow’s game) to mask the more obvious offensive deficiencies.
My Mildly Informed Analysis:
Yes, the Bengals are criminals. Yes, the Bengals have an awful defense, especially against the run. But the former doesn’t matter on the football field, and the latter isn’t as much of a factor with the Raven’s starting running back out, an offensive line with “potential,” and a rookie quarterback making his first start. What the Bengals DO have is 3 healthy high-end receivers in Chad Ocho Cinco (don’t get me started), T.J. Houshmanzadeh (I spelled that correctly without looking it up), and yes, Chris Henry (I looked that up with a police report). The Ravens, at best have 2 high-end cornerbacks, neither of whom can keep up downfield with the Bengals deep threats.
On the other hand, the Ravens could key in on the Bengals running game, recently flung wide open with the release of perennial 1200-yard back in Rudi Johnson. The Ravens front seven could torment the Cincinnati offensive line and allow the safeties to stay back in coverage. The Ravens offense could find significant opportunities in the Bengals D- the lack of push by the defensive line could force the Bengals into blitzing situations, opening up slant and curl routes and allowing Joe Flacco to pick up key first downs against their secondary. Most importantly this would allow Flacco to develop a comfort zone before taking advantage of one-on-one coverage to make a big play downfield. This has been Cam Cameron’s style in San Diego and could serve well if Joe Flacco can stay on his feet and deliver the occasional strike- a very big "if."
In the end, this will be a question of whose weakness is less egregious- Cincinnati’s defense or Baltimore’s offense? This past offseason, Cincinnati improved their defense, if only slightly. While Baltimore put some pieces together for the future, this year the offense took a step back (losing Ogden, McNair, and half your tight ends will do that to you).
The nod goes to the Bengals, 24-13
The Ravens are hoping to open strong against an opponent that shocked them last year, providing a sneak peak at the collapse that followed en route to a 6-10 season. This year the Bengals begin the season hoping to continue their high powered offensive attack while bolstering their defense with first round pick Keith Rivers starting at outside linebacker. The Ravens however open with offensive questions at quarterback, along the offensive line, the tight ends… everywhere. The defense hopes to prove to critics that it is not “too old” just yet, and can hang together well enough to make up for the scoring deficiencies once again.
What I’m Wondering:Will Flacco be on his Back(o)?
Joe Flacco is a rookie, we all understand that- so I won’t waste everyone’s time saying he is going to struggle, etc. What we should watch for is whether the offensive line can keep him upright long enough to make decent plays downfield. That big arm is good for something, but it isn’t worth anything if he doesn’t have time. Luckily the Bengals have never been particularly good at rushing the passer, registering only 22 sacks all of last season, putting them dead last in sacks in the NFL. Will the acquisition of former Bengal Willie Anderson help the o-line? Probably not this week, but he could be a starter sooner rather than later.
How many stretchers will the defense need?
Last season, Ravens defensive starters lost a total of 33 games due to injury, and it showed. The loss of Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle for large chunks of the season caused second year safety Dawan Landry to take a significant step back from his rookie season and the defense to end the season ranked 23rd in points allowed with 24 points per game. Terrible offensive play didn’t help the D, but that shouldn’t get any better this year. Should the D go through the same rash of injuries this year, you can forget any hopes of a .500 season. This is not a deep team, and any missing starter will show.
Same ol’ offense?
Cam Cameron, offensive genius comes over to work his magic with a formerly hapless unit. Have we heard this before? Luckily, he isn’t coming here as a head coach. Unfortunately, I didn’t see anything in the preseason that showed me anything new from this offense- nor did I see it in Miami last year when he ran the train wreck of the Dolphins’ 1-15 season. Let’s not forget, LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t exactly walking into Owings Mills anytime soon. However, we know a coaching staff never shows its cards during the preseason. Even so, look for more creative play calling (especially if Willis McGahee makes a miraculous recovery for tomorrow’s game) to mask the more obvious offensive deficiencies.
My Mildly Informed Analysis:
Yes, the Bengals are criminals. Yes, the Bengals have an awful defense, especially against the run. But the former doesn’t matter on the football field, and the latter isn’t as much of a factor with the Raven’s starting running back out, an offensive line with “potential,” and a rookie quarterback making his first start. What the Bengals DO have is 3 healthy high-end receivers in Chad Ocho Cinco (don’t get me started), T.J. Houshmanzadeh (I spelled that correctly without looking it up), and yes, Chris Henry (I looked that up with a police report). The Ravens, at best have 2 high-end cornerbacks, neither of whom can keep up downfield with the Bengals deep threats.
On the other hand, the Ravens could key in on the Bengals running game, recently flung wide open with the release of perennial 1200-yard back in Rudi Johnson. The Ravens front seven could torment the Cincinnati offensive line and allow the safeties to stay back in coverage. The Ravens offense could find significant opportunities in the Bengals D- the lack of push by the defensive line could force the Bengals into blitzing situations, opening up slant and curl routes and allowing Joe Flacco to pick up key first downs against their secondary. Most importantly this would allow Flacco to develop a comfort zone before taking advantage of one-on-one coverage to make a big play downfield. This has been Cam Cameron’s style in San Diego and could serve well if Joe Flacco can stay on his feet and deliver the occasional strike- a very big "if."
In the end, this will be a question of whose weakness is less egregious- Cincinnati’s defense or Baltimore’s offense? This past offseason, Cincinnati improved their defense, if only slightly. While Baltimore put some pieces together for the future, this year the offense took a step back (losing Ogden, McNair, and half your tight ends will do that to you).
The nod goes to the Bengals, 24-13
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