Ravens-Broncos Preview: Taking Down an Upstart Undefeated

I am going to take a different approach to the preview this week- I am going to talk about one major point for each part of the offense and defense (rushing and passing games) and what the Ravens will have to do in order to win. Because after all, isn’t that what we really care about? This team is good enough that if it plays up to its talent in every phase of the game, every game is more than winnable.

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

Broncos Pass Offense vs. Ravens Pass Defense
Kyle Orton is an effective but not terrifying quarterback. Compared to the other QB’s the Ravens have had to face this year- Favre, Palmer, Brady, and Rivers come to mind- Orton just doesn’t compare. However, he has tall, strong receivers to throw to who can make any quarterback look good. The key in the passing game is not only going to be the ability of the cornerbacks to contain Denver’s threats in Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall, because they won’t, but it will be Dawan Landry and Ed Reed’s commitment to their assignment. I have seen way too much freelancing in the secondary with Reed trying to make plays outside his assignment and Landry biting up on play action. A desperate playmaker will often try to compensate for a weak overall unit by taking more risks- but that often works against the team and allows long touchdowns. The Ravens cornerbacks are not good enough to handle being all alone, the safeties need to be disciplined.

Broncos Rush Offense vs. Ravens Rush Defense
Some have voiced a concern over Tavaris Gooden’s size and whether he is too slight to be an inside linebacker, but I think this is too much worry over making another Bart Scott and not enough looking at what Gooden does well. Smaller, quicker linebackers can be great at stopping the run provided they have the lanes to penetrate to the ball carrier. I have seen Ray Lewis hit too often and taken out of the play, and I put this on the defensive line. Ngata is playing fine, but Kelly Gregg is not the dominating tackle he was two years ago. In the Ravens’ defense, unlike other systems, the DT’s job is not to rush the passer, but it is to occupy the interior offensive lineman and allow athletic linebackers (like Gooden) to penetrate to the running back. That has not been happening, and I see it as the reason that the Ravens have allowed two consecutive 100 yard rushers. It doesn’t matter who carries the ball for Denver- if Baltimore does not control the line of scrimmage, especially inside, they won’t be able to stop the Broncos on the ground.

Ravens Rush Offense vs. Broncos Rush Defense
Ten rushes for Ray Rice? Even against a rush defense like Minnesota’s you need to keep pounding the football just to keep the defense honest. McClain? McGahee? The Ravens made a great comeback at the end of the game, but Joe was being pounded back there when Jared Allen & Co. didn’t have to watch for the run. Flacco was cool under pressure in standing in the pocket despite getting hit, but he won’t be able to keep that up forever. It is okay to run the football once every few plays, Baltimore needs to do what made them great. Despite this, Rice is quickly becoming the next Brian Westbrook with his ability to do so many things on the field, from pass blocking to making linebackers miss in the open field. However, this side of the ball comes down to the offensive line returning to form with (hopefully) Jared Gaither moving back into the left tackle spot and Michael Oher taking his superb play of late to right tackle. That will not only protect the quarterback (as we will discuss later), but it will open up opportunities for Willis McGahee off-tackle rushes or the occasional stretch play to Rice where he could threaten to break a big play. With McGahee and McClain in the fold, Rice has the complementary backs to help him become even more effective than Westbrook, who has suffered being the undivided attention of whatever defense he’s lined up against.

Ravens Pass Offense vs. Broncos Pass Defense
Champ Bailey has rediscovered his old form and Brian Dawkins is showing that he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. If the Ravens try to throw at the Broncos secondary all afternoon, they will turn the ball over. No 43 pass attempts this week, and no dropping back 43 times against Elvis Dumervil at linebacker, who has a whopping 10 sacks so far this season. The Ravens offensive line will have to come together quickly to regain their rhythm and work as a unit to keep the Denver pass rush at bay. Utilizing Todd Heap over the middle could keep the linebackers in a short zone and draw attention away from Derrick Mason. I worry about the passing game if Flacco can’t sling the ball to Derrick Mason on a regular basis. If Champ Bailey can shut him down and keep him to 4 or fewer catches, I don’t see how Joe Flacco will get going. If need be he will find other targets, like Rice out of the backfield (or how about swing Rice into the slot receiver spot after the team lines up and get him matched up on a linebacker?) or Mark Clayton. The key here will be Flacco using all of his weapons and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. Of course, in order to do that his receivers need to get in position and catch the ball. I am still not sold that they can do that.

Special Teams
Okay, so I have never considered this before in the preview (because they were too long already), but I found an interesting statistic that I wanted to pass along. Despite being roughly tied with the Ravens in punting distance, Denver ranks second to last in the league in punt coverage, allowing 14.6 yards per return. Baltimore comes in at 7.7 yards per return. That could wind up being a difference of 7 yards of field position each time the teams trade possessions. This is why Lardarius Webb is so important. Not only will he be called upon to take a greater role in the secondary, he will have the opportunity to put the Ravens in great field position if he can break one. With the way the offense has been performing at times, this could be critically important.

The Rundown

Baltimore can score, but how consistently? The offense went into hibernation two weeks ago for 2 ½ quarters after falling asleep at the wheel for a whole game against the Bengals. Was that an aberration? The defense has shown that its flaws are not cosmetic, but are fundamental shortfalls that will haunt this team throughout the season. Will it hold together long enough to contain Marshall, Royal, and running back Knowshon Moreno? I just don’t think so. People keep saying the Bronco’s aren’t that good, yet they keep winning. The offense will once again have to put up big numbers for this team to win. This game was a really tough one to call, and against my better judgment, here's the pick:

The nod goes to the Ravens, 31-28.

Free Kicks

Okay, so this time we aren’t doing an all-anything edition, just three stories from three sports with only a little Maryland-centric stuff thrown in there. I felt like going old school today, that’s all. Windsor and Falco are in Charlottesville covering the Maryland baseball team’s series against the juggernaut Virginia Cavaliers and are just hoping not to see a sweep. Good luck on that, guys. Meanwhile, I am in Baltimore to line up for the kick…

Jay Cut-loose
At the beginning of this saga, I was firmly in Jay Cutler’s camp. Josh McDaniels was not happy enough to have a Pro Bowl quarterback who put up incredible numbers to overcome an awful defense and nearly win the division (okay, so they blew a 3 game lead with 4 to play but still). Josh McDaniels was simply an arrogant Bill Belichick protégé who simply had to have “his guy” regardless of how full the cupboard was at his new place. As the weeks wore on however, I realized that while McDaniels may be an over-his-head punk with delusions of grandeur, Jay Cutler still had the opportunity to play. He would have put up his numbers and year from now when Cutler went to another Pro Bowl all would be forgotten. You don’t have to like someone to work for them. He could have spent this time shoving it in McDaniels’ face how wrong he was to look to trade him. Instead he didn’t return McDaniels’ calls and wouldn’t meet with the team again. Josh McDaniels handled this situation just about as badly as he ever could have, refusing to tell Jay that he was “his” quarterback. But Jay Cutler was simply immature in his response by not being the bigger man and stepping up. Good luck in Chicago, Jay. You sure as heck won’t put up huge numbers there.

Rotation far Older than Most Predicted
At the beginning of Spring Training, the Orioles had plenty of young arms ready to battle it out for the three remaining spots in the rotation after Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara. Dave Pauley, Hayden Penn, Brad Bergesen, Rich Hill, Brian Bass, and others were supposed to inject some youth (and serve as a bit of a stopgap) for the younger pitchers working their way through the system. Instead, one by one they flamed out, and the only one who might be with the club on Opening Day is Brian Bass in a relief role. Why did this happen? Did we fans overestimate these AAAA talents and hope that one (or all) of them could round out an improved rotation? I did. While the Orioles are left with pitchers who didn’t get a sniff of other free agent interest in Adam Eaton, Mark Hendrickson, and Alfredo Simon, at least they will be able to dip into Triple-A early if necessary and have a range of options, it is disappointing to see all the young talent flame out so quickly. The O’s still have more pitching depth than they did last season, but it is very dicey.

Did the Wizards Just Do Something Right?
It has been since… well since before the season that we on ATH mentioned the Wizards. That’s for a few main reasons. 1) Their management is god-awful. 2) We just aren’t that into D.C. teams (when I do root in hockey and basketball, I root for the 76ers and even the Flyers). And 3) They are simply a terrible, terrible team. However, last night I saw something that shook my faith in existence- the Wizards hosted the Cavs and outscored them in every quarter but the 4th, showing consistent scoring to keep Cleveland at bay and taking the win, 109-101. It is no coincidence that this win comes just days after Gilbert Arenas decided to grace us all with his presence on the court after months of refusing to observe his contract because the team was too bad for him. He failed to note however, that the team was bad because of him and the huge salary that put the Wiz up against the cap. However, I digress. With Arenas, Butler, Jamison, and Haywood on the court at the same time healthy for one of the first times this season, this team finally started to play like it is capable of- the 4th or 5th best team in the East. It is too little too late, but it gave Wizards fans something to be optimistic about for next year.

Shanahan Deserved Better as Broncos Head Coach

The NFL Network is reporting that Mike Shanahan has been fired as head coach of the Denver Broncos. I know that I usually save non-Maryland related sports news for a Free Kicks, but I think this deserves a post of its own. In this world of fast results and quick firings, where a coach can be the toast of the town on Saturday and be out of a job by Monday, Mike Shanahan has been the epitome of consistency. Since his arrival in Denver in 1995, he has quietly won 60% of his games. We as fans have taken it for granted that the Broncos will be competitive every year, that you will be smashed in the mouth with a punishing and versatile running attack at the very least. Mike Shanahan always has gotten it done.

Yes, he has had losing seasons- 2 out of his 14 seasons with the Broncos. He has won 10 or more games 7 times, and been to the playoffs every one of those times. He not only won back to back Superbowl titles in 1997-1998, but took home a division title as recently as 2005. However, in this business it only takes one bad season to do you in. Over the last 3 seasons Shanahan’s squad has played .500 ball, and hasn’t been to the playoffs. In the NFL, you need immediate results, and when your last championship was 10 years ago, they don’t mean anything to ownership or misinformed fans who want a coach to burn in effigy.

It would be easy to label Shanahan as a coach who might have been losing his touch, failing to deliver competitive teams or just falling apart down the stretch. However, let’s compare his record to a few coaches we aren’t exactly railing against right now. The man in demand, Bill Cowher, won 62% of his games in 15 seasons with the Steelers. Mike Holmgren won 59% of his games and only 54% with the Seahawks. Jeff Fisher, a man consistently considered one of the most innovative and resilient coaches in the game, only has a .557 winning percentage and has been to the playoffs 5 times in his 15 seasons at the helm of the Titans. Is anyone calling for his resignation? In fact, many still consider him one of the best coaches in the league. Doesn’t Mike Shanahan still deserve this distinction?

None of these men were able to master a part of their game more consistently than Mike Shanahan did his running game. He made Tatum Bell, Reuben Droughns, Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson into 1000 yard rushers. He puts undrafted free agents into his system and they average 4 yards a carry. Mike Shanahan utilized his zone read blocking scheme to a T, with his “one cut and go” philosophy that trained his backs early on not to dawdle too long behind the line trying to make moves before getting yardage. Every year Denver did more with less than many other teams in the NFL- after the days of John Elway and Terrell Davis, the Broncos cycled through quarterbacks and running backs but still only had 2 losing seasons in that stretch. He never had a great big play receiver to complement Rod Smith as he got older, but still had solid offensive production no matter who was on the field because the running game was always churning out yardage.

This season was ugly- losses to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Bills, including losing your last 3 games to choke away the division is never pretty. The embarrassing performance his team put together against the Chargers with the division on the line was not at all like a Mike Shanahan-coached team, and it was likely what spelled the end for this long-tenured championship coach. And that’s exactly the point- this season was not at all like a Mike Shanahan team. This coach has done enough to deserve the benefit of the doubt. Coach Shanahan couldn’t stop 15 players from going on injured reserve as well as 17 other players showing up on the injury report for the hapless season finale, or stop All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey from missing 7 games in the middle of the season. He might have been able to do more to shore up this defense that allowed an AFC worst 28 points per game (though they just allowed defensive coordinator Bob Slowick to start calling the defensive plays this season).

At 56 years old, Mike Shanahan has a lot of coaching left in him if he chooses to do so. He will get offers, and I hope his as successful at his next stop as he was at Denver. However, in this age of 3 or even 2 year coaching stints, there is something inspiring when a successful coach can stay with a team for most (if not all) of his career. I understand the need for change, but Mike Shanahan deserves better than this. He is a great coach, and Denver won’t be able to find anyone better this season.