Can Anything Be Done About the Rotation?

What we all believed would be the problem with the Orioles in the beginning of the season has come front and center. The starting rotation has been very bad lately, and there is no solution in sight.

Here is what the Opening Day rotation was, and where they are now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: still a starter, 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA (6.86 on the road)
--Koji Uehara: has not been bad when healthy, but often could not go longer than 6 innings a game and is always hurt
--Alfredo Simon: needed elbow surgery after two bad starts, out for the year
--Mark Hendrickson: relegated to the bullpen after many bad outings, but has become a decent long reliever
--Adam Eaton: released after posting an 8.56 ERA in eight starts, now playing for Colorado Springs Sky Sox, Rockies Triple-A club

And the rotation now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA
--Brad Bergesen: a solid starter this season, 5-2 record with a 3.53 ERA, 4-0 in last eight starts
--Rich Hill: mostly bad outings with a few exceptions, 3-2 record with a 7.43 ERA, only twice going over 5.2 innings
--Jason Berken: may not be ready, 1-5 record with 6.25 ERA
--David Hernandez: only five starts but ok right now, 2-2 record with 4.15 ERA

It is no doubt that the rotation has been real problematic. Without Bergesen and solid work from the bullpen, the whole pitching staff could be lost. Certainly it was thought the rotation would struggle, but the difficulties with Guthrie and Uehara made things much worse.

But can anything really be done about it right now? As we often tell ourselves, the Orioles are not in contention right now. Not matter what deals can be done, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays will likely be better. Signing a number of free agents likely will not help matters plus will cost millions of dollars. Trading also won't work, as you will not get anyone good and ready to go without giving up one of the big three, which is not an option, and Andy MacPhail will not do that.

The Orioles can keep tapping into Norfolk all they want, and that is what they will do. Already from the Tides came Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Radhames Liz, and Alberto Castillo from the pitching end plus Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Lou Montanez, and Oscar Salazar in the lineup. The Tides pitching staff has been real helpful to the Orioles, and they still have some people left, but eventually the Birds will need to stop bringing people up, if only because they will run out of them. Left that could help now are David Pauley and Chris Waters, but after that, the rotation will need to function on their own.

This whole situation is difficult for the Orioles, but it is one they will need to get through. Mainly because nothing really can be done about it unless the current pitchers can do better. Let's hope they do.

(Photo credit: AP)

Prospect Report: Jason Berken

I promise, one of these days I will in fact profile a position prospect. Quite honestly this system still needs an awful lot of help with position prospects without the last names of Wieters and Snyder. So rather than reaching for a position player, I have to give credit where credit is due, and profile the oft-overlooked Jason Berken. Berken was part of the Baysox’s incredible run last season, ranking second in wins on that team only to Brad Bergesen. He started this season in AA to the surprise of many, but rather than grumbling about being slighted he went about his work and was recently promoted to Norfolk. In his debut with the Tides he dazzled, pitching 7 shutout innings with only 4 hits allowed to go with 3 strikeouts and zero walks.

So, who is Jason Berken? Jason Berken is a 25-year old right handed starter hailing from the small town of De Pere, Wisconsin. Berken started playing baseball at Clemson University, where he put together a couple solid seasons as a starter in 2004 and 2006, missing the 2005 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. His rebound from surgery in 2006 was impressive, as he posted a 9-3 record in 18 starts, pitching to a 3.22 ERA in 81 innings. In doing this he was able to strike out 75 batters while walking 34. At Clemson he was known as a team leader and pitched his best when against ACC competition. The Orioles decided to take a chance on him in the 6th round of the 2006 Amateur Draft, placing him at short season Aberdeen where he excelled. Jason took a small step back in 2007, going 9-9 at Frederick with a 4.53 ERA and posting a career high 49 walks. Last season Berken exploded onto the map at Bowie with his finest season, going 12-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 124-38 K-BB ratio.

Strengths: Jason Berken has the full complement of pitchers that you would like in a starting pitcher. He throws a 91-92 mph fastball with a changeup, slider, and curveball to complement. Berken’s greatest strength is in his command of these pitches, particularly his fastball. His slider can become a valuable go-to pitch for Berken when he is locating it properly. Unlike other young pitchers, Jason Berken is unafraid to pitch to contact and go right after hitters, which is exactly the sort of mature approach that can help him translate his game to the majors. As has been seen very often, young pitchers who are afraid to pitch to contact find themselves trying to be too perfect and get hit around in the big leagues. Berken has shown resilience throughout his career from the Tommy John surgery to his early struggles at Frederick. Even this season he showed that resilience, in rebounding from his first two mediocre starts at Bowie (total of 8 IP allowing 5 ER), only to pitch 7 shutout after his promotion to Norfolk.

Weaknesses: Jason Berken, while having good command, does not have the great level of command like other current and former Orioles prospects Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen. His command of offspeed pitches needs improvement, or more experienced hitters will just sit on his fastball which is not a plus pitch. In the end, Berken relies heavily on having good command because none of his pitches grades out much above average. Another concern is the fact that Berken, aside from his short stint at Aberdeen, has never been the top pitcher on his staff, including all of his years at Clemson. Jason Berken is also an injury concern, because even though he has felt no ill effects from the Tommy John surgery in recent years, that surgery is still a red flag for scouts.

Projection: Jason Berken is a tough pitcher who has fought his way to recognition, in much of the same way that Bergesen came out from anonymity last year. Jason Berken had a tough hand dealt to him this year being placed at Bowie rather than Norfolk, but he handled it well and now has his shot at AAA. Berken does not command the heavy sinker that gives Bergesen significant success, but does have a good deal of polish and poise which makes him a good option for callup sometime this year. He might not be a top-tier prospect like Tillman, Arrieta, or Hernandez, but the O’s would be far wiser to bring Berken up this season ahead of those aforementioned prospects who need more polish first. It’s hard to see where Berken might end up down the road, as the bevy of top pitchers should block him from a permanent rotation spot. I expect Berken to have a rotation spot by the end of this season and compete for a back-of-the rotation place or long reliever spot next season.

Note: There is an excellent piece on MiLB.com discussing the early success of the top young pitchers for the Orioles in the minor leagues this season. Definitely check it out.

(Photo Credit: Kevin Pataky/MLB.com)

March from the Minors Begins: Bergesen to Start Tuesday for O's

Every Orioles fan knew that at some point this season a long line of high-ceiling, young pitchers would start marching their way to Baltimore from Norfolk and even Bowie. However, I don’t think anyone thought that the first start would be on April 21st for this group. Overall, the pitching hasn’t been completely terrible- one could easily make a case that the bullpen has been worse than the starting rotation this season. Even so, none of Baltimore’s starters had been so reminiscent of Steve Trachsel as to force a young player up into the starter role before he was ready. No, instead it was Mexican Spring Training Surprise Alfredo Simon, who went down with an elbow injury that could sideline him for at least the next month. Now the Orioles are left with bringing up the first of their promising young pitchers (I am not counting Liz) in Brad Bergesen.

There are a number of advantages to bringing up Bergesen over the other minor league prospects. Bergesen, for one, is about as good as he is likely to get at the minor league level. The 23-year-old does not have overwhelming stuff- a 93 mph fastball is about what he will top out at. He is far better known for his control, having command of a two seamer, four seamer, slider, and changeup. I will leave the details in Windsor’s prospect report if you want a more detailed breakdown of Bergesen’s strengths and weaknesses. However, it is unlikely that his command will get any better at the minor league level- when you know how to hit the strike zone you know how to hit the strike zone, end of story. In that sense, there was no point in keeping him in the minors except to protect him for as long as possible. Finesse pitchers can last a long time in this league; the O’s may as well start him out now.

Windsor and I had the opportunity to watch him first hand last season, and what impressed us the most was his poise. He gave up a few hits as we watched him take on the Met’s minor league affiliate, but he never wavered and moved seamlessly from batter to batter. He is a very cerebral pitcher, never trying to blow guys away but instead using the count and forcing hitters to take bad swings. That is an essential element that clubs spend years trying to instill in their young pitchers; Bergesen will have it from Day One. Additionally, this cerebral approach and strong command could help in easing the transition to the majors. He is unlikely to be taken in by the magnitude of the situation and forced into foolish mistakes or trying to do too much. He knows what kind of pitcher he is and won’t try to play outside himself.

Does this mean he will be successful? Not necessarily. In 11 innings of work so far at Norfolk, Bergesen has only walked 3 batters and struck out 9 en route to a 2.45 ERA. However, it is just 11 innings. He spent all of last season facing AA hitters at Bowie, where he started out extremely strong and struggled a bit down the stretch- could that be wearing down or hitters figuring his approach out? Either way, Bergesen will be facing an entirely new level of competition, but could have early success as hitters try to get a read on him. Brad Bergesen is at best a third starter in the long run,

Is he Baltimore’s best option? Absolutely. A case could be made for Chris Waters, who is certainly as good as he is going to be at the minor league level as he nears his late 20’s and already finished out the season last year with the major league club. However, given the circumstances of the call-up, and the fact that Bergesen would have been called up at some point over the next few months, it makes sense. Like everything with the Orioles rotation, it might be painful to watch but it makes sense.

Prospect Report: First Thoughts on 2009

After the long offseason break, I welcome you back to Around the Harbor's weekly Prospect Report, in which I'll either profile a noteworthy player or just give some general thoughts on the state of the Orioles farm. I was hoping to give a profile of Bowie's opening day starter Jason Berken this week, but I'm going to put that off until I have a chance to see him some more. So, to start things off I would like to share some of my thoughts as to what I'm looking for this year in the Orioles minor league system.

AAA Norfolk Tides
- The starting pitching for this year’s team should be night-and-day from last year, in which the Norfolk rotation was marked by veteran retreads and borderline prospects. The Norfolk rotation this season is headlined by Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman and David Hernandez, who are all coming over from last year’s Bowie Baysox team which made the playoffs. My question is, how long will pitchers like Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez stay? Certainly I expect Bergesen to be pitching in the majors in one, maximum of two, months from now. Hernandez I expect to be up sometime this year, but I suspect the Orioles organization will not bring up Tillman at any point this season.
- The bullpen should be improved, but does have its share of questions. Bob McCrory and Kam Mickolio both have the arms to be solid bullpen pitchers, but both are coming off of disappointing 2008s in which they were given chances to make it with the big club and failed. Radhammes Liz is the other big question mark, as he moves from the rotation to the bullpen. Liz has the potential to be a great late-inning reliever, as does Mickolio, but I’m going to have to see a good deal from McCrory to be convinced.
- Nolan Reimold and Luis Montanez should be a huge boost to the Tides’ offense, as both are legitimate power hitters and were able to dominate AA pitching last season. Infielders Scott Moore and Oscar Salazar are returning, but none of the position players outside of Reimold and Montanez are considered legitimate prospects. Either way, the corps of hitters are good enough such that if injuries strike the big league club there are legitimate options at AAA to go to.

AA Bowie Baysox
- Again, pitching is the main story here. Jason Berken was roughed up a bit in his first start of the season, pitching only 3 innings and giving up 3 earned runs, but he leads a very impressive rotation along with Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe. Jake Arrieta is the real headline prospect from this group, but he has yet to pitch a full season in the minor leagues because of his stint last year in the Olympics. I’m eager to see how long Arrieta actually stays in Bowie if he excels; the organization has long let it be known that Arrieta is on the fast track to the majors, so I expect him to be in Norfolk sometime midseason.
- Brandon Erbe will be a major storyline for this team. Erbe has struggled somewhat with inconsistency, but started to return to form last season at Frederick. His stuff is as good as any in this system, so if he can begin to harness it at this level he can reestablish himself as a top prospect in this organization. And he’s a local boy, which doesn’t hurt at all.
- Brandon Snyder is another player to watch on this team. I’ve talked extensively about Brandon in previous prospect reports, and I still believe that he can be a major piece of the Orioles future if he can develop some power. Snyder has the frame to develop into a power hitter, but already has excellent bat control and can accumulate a high average despite drawing very few walks. I expect Snyder to be tried out some at third base as well given the fact that Billy Rowell has been moved to the outfield in Frederick and Snyder’s bat would seem to play better at third than first.

Advanced-A Frederick Keys
- Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, and Chorye Spoone are the standouts on yet another impressive rotation in the Orioles system. Matusz is slated to get the Matt Wieters treatment, in that he will spend half of this season getting his feet wet in Frederick before moving up to Bowie at the season’s midway point. Zach Britton is a pitcher who went largely unnoticed last year in Delmarva, but like his counterparts Sean Gleason and John Mariotti, will have a chance to get noticed this year in Frederick. Britton comes in with a ton of potential and an excellent track record, and with a good season could make a push for Bowie.
- Chorye Spoone, as faithful readers of this blog might know, is a personal favorite of mine in the system. He is a local prospect from Pasadena, MD and is currently coming off of shoulder surgery which, although it isn’t supposed to be a long term issue, is always a big concern. Chorye was a vital part of the Keys’ playoff run two years ago, and has arguably the highest upside of any pitcher in this system. A big return from him this year would be a huge win for both the Keys and for the Orioles’ long term plans.
- Billy Rowell is the main position prospect to look for in this year’s team, as he holds immense power potential in his bat but failed to produce at even an average level last season. Rowell’s attitude problems and adjustment issues were more than apparent last season as he was clearly overmatched at Frederick, and this season is vital to determining whether or not he’s a flat-out bust.
- Another note from a position perspective at Frederick: Ryan Adams’ performance at second base will be a major storyline to watch, as he set a record last season for errors at Delmarva. Adams is terrific with the bat, and supposedly the errors he makes should be correctible. Whether or not that comes to fruition will determine not only his future down the line but whether or not Keys fans are in for a very long season.

That’s going to close it up for this week’s Prospect Report. Certainly yes, there are the Shorebirds, and yes, the progression of Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes is crucial to the future of the Orioles system given the lack of quality position players in the system, but I think it wiser to save some material for later.

And a quick message to close: Why to we care about all of these players in the minor leagues. So that someday, someday, the Orioles will not have to rely on pitchers like Brian Bass.