Over the Hill, and About to Tumble

I talked to Windsor last night, and we traded ideas as to how Rich Hill would do. I insisted that he would rise to the occasion, giving the Orioles a solid though unremarkable 6 innings with 3 earned runs. Windsor predicted he’d give up three, but wouldn’t make it out of the 4th. That is why he’s the expert, I suppose. In fact, I was so certain of a serviceable performance out of Rich Hill that I planned today to be an open letter in defense of the much-maligned curve baller. However, this pitcher is instead reminding me a bit too much of Daniel Cabrera- great potential to get guys out but when he can’t locate his pitches he is done for. Rich Hill can be incredible; that much I am certain of. His fastball is too flat, but as a primarily curve ball pitcher, he gives hitters a completely different look in the rotation. Hill’s comeback with the Orioles was promising at first, but the wheels have completely come off.

Even more alarming are his statements that his shoulder is bothering him, and has been all season. He gave the same reason for his performance last year, though it was his back that was bothering him then. With the recent report about fastballs doing more damage to young arms than curve balls, Hill may wind up being a useful counterpoint. If he is still experiencing injury problems after all of his time in rehab and adjusting his throwing motion, perhaps this guy simply can’t stay healthy enough to use his pitches. Some pitchers can play through their injuries and still get quality starts- but when you are throwing curve balls as frequently as Hill it can do a number on your arm. I make no excuses for Hill; he should be able to locate his pitches after all this time with a patient coaching staff and a healthy environment for project players like him. Baltimore has given him all the opportunities this team can afford, and at this point it is just taxing the bullpen.

At this point I am not sure it can be fixed at the major league level, but I won’t dismiss Rich Hill entirely. He is the only pitcher on this staff aside from Jeremy Guthrie who has had any record of success at the major league level. Should he clear waivers, he could make wonderful use of some time at Norfolk to get his act together, and perhaps come back with a vengeance next season. Let’s not simply assume that Bergesen-Guthrie-Matusz-Tillman-Hernandez are going to automatically be ready to rock the world next season. Nor should we forget that the cost of sending Hill down (or having him leave the organization if he should be grabbed off of waivers, though that is less likely now than ever) is keeping Jason Berken up.

What, may I ask, is Berken learning at the major league level? The guy has been completely shelled, a young prospect thrown up before he is ready and made to learn on the fly- that is how young pitchers are ruined. Windsor has argued to me that Jason Berken’s development isn’t important because he isn’t projected to be a star anyway. I have trouble with that line of thinking, to be honest. Berken could very well be completely shell-shocked by this season’s end, and never be the same pitcher he could have been. I don’t like looking at my players as collateral damage for the common good. However, I won’t pretend that this isn’t a business and that you have to do what’s best in the long term. Berken has also recovered rather well after rough patches early in games, indicating that he may have a better mental makeup than other previous O’s.

This start means a lot for Jason Berken, but not quite as much as it meant yesterday. With Hill’s dismal start on a day when it was obvious to everyone that he was playing for his job, Jason Berken needs only to make it through 4 innings and he will get to stay in the rotation. Let’s hope he does slightly better than that.

O's Rotation Set For Another Shuffle

Well, at least once a month for the past several seasons O's fans have faced this question: what do we do with our struggling starter(s)? The current situation has reached a breaking point with the struggles of young Jason Berken, and the epic decline of Rich Hill. Both Berken and Hill put up poor efforts against the Yankees, with Berken giving up 5 runs in 6 innings, and Rich Hill giving up 5 runs in 3 innings. These are not isolated occurences either, as both have struggled mightily for the past few weeks (save for a couple bright spots here and there), and the O's were hoping one would step up in their recent starts to avoid this tough decision. Does one of them go? Do both of them go? If so, who replaces them?

Well, in my opinion Rich Hill has to be the one to go. While he has more wins than Berken (inexplicably), he won't give you near the innings that Jason Berken will. Rich Hill has such an unorthodox delivery that when he's not spot-on to start the game he has supreme difficulty making adjustments. By contrast, Berken can make some adjustments to move further in a game, as evidenced by him finishing his last start with four shutout innings. Rich Hill doesn't have any options, but I can't think of any team in the majors who would be willing to put him on their major league roster. Rich Hill only has one good pitch, his curveball, and because it's effectively his only pitch he becomes way too predictable. And anyone who's watched him pitch knows that he can't rely on his fastball like many want him to, because it is exceptionally flat with little to no movement. I know I'm being harsh on the guy, but it is what it is.

That being said, I'm convinced that the club will try to put him through waivers (and he will pass through) and keep Berken for the time being. I think that Berken's finish from the last start is enough to think that he at least has the right mental toughness to have a shot at rebounding. To back this up further, the Baltimore Sun has already reported that Trembley and MacPhail will meet on Friday to discuss what to do with Rich Hill.

So who replaces Hill? There are actually a couple of ways to go-- Chris Tillman or David Pauley. Yes, David Pauley is a legitimate option even though O's fans don't pay much attention to the possibility. David Pauley was brought in to provide just this kind of depth at Triple-A, and he has performed admirably at Norfolk to the point that he would be a very sound call-up. Calling up David Pauley would allow Tillman more time at Norfolk and keeps Tillman's service clock from ticking. However, I do believe that Chris Tillman should (and will) be called up to replace Rich Hill in the rotation.

While I said at the start of the year that Chris Tillman should spend all of this season at Norfolk, his play has altered that plan. It's not because Tillman has dominated Triple-A competition in his recent starts, it's because he has dominated Triple-A throughout this entire season. Too often the Orioles bring up players simply because they've shown a hot streak; this is not one of those instances. Tillman has sustained his dominance and has rarely had two bad games in a row. His ability to make adjustments quickly, throw strikes, and the rave reviews from coaches at all levels tells me that he's as major league ready as he'll ever be. And almost as important as that readiness is the fact that he's ideally lined up for a major league debut. Now that he has been pushed back a day at Norfolk (curious, no?), his start lines up exactly with Hill's next Tuesday at home against the Royals. There is no better place to insert a young pitcher than at home versus a mediocre ball club (knock on wood). Assuming that his start tonight goes well, it's hard to think that the club will let this ideal situation slip by.

Certainly I understand patience, but I really think that this is the time and place to bring up Tillman to replace Rich Hill. Plus, I was hoping to go to Tuesday's game anyway, which doesn't hurt.

Can Anything Be Done About the Rotation?

What we all believed would be the problem with the Orioles in the beginning of the season has come front and center. The starting rotation has been very bad lately, and there is no solution in sight.

Here is what the Opening Day rotation was, and where they are now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: still a starter, 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA (6.86 on the road)
--Koji Uehara: has not been bad when healthy, but often could not go longer than 6 innings a game and is always hurt
--Alfredo Simon: needed elbow surgery after two bad starts, out for the year
--Mark Hendrickson: relegated to the bullpen after many bad outings, but has become a decent long reliever
--Adam Eaton: released after posting an 8.56 ERA in eight starts, now playing for Colorado Springs Sky Sox, Rockies Triple-A club

And the rotation now:
--Jeremy Guthrie: 6-8 record, 5.02 ERA
--Brad Bergesen: a solid starter this season, 5-2 record with a 3.53 ERA, 4-0 in last eight starts
--Rich Hill: mostly bad outings with a few exceptions, 3-2 record with a 7.43 ERA, only twice going over 5.2 innings
--Jason Berken: may not be ready, 1-5 record with 6.25 ERA
--David Hernandez: only five starts but ok right now, 2-2 record with 4.15 ERA

It is no doubt that the rotation has been real problematic. Without Bergesen and solid work from the bullpen, the whole pitching staff could be lost. Certainly it was thought the rotation would struggle, but the difficulties with Guthrie and Uehara made things much worse.

But can anything really be done about it right now? As we often tell ourselves, the Orioles are not in contention right now. Not matter what deals can be done, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays will likely be better. Signing a number of free agents likely will not help matters plus will cost millions of dollars. Trading also won't work, as you will not get anyone good and ready to go without giving up one of the big three, which is not an option, and Andy MacPhail will not do that.

The Orioles can keep tapping into Norfolk all they want, and that is what they will do. Already from the Tides came Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Radhames Liz, and Alberto Castillo from the pitching end plus Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Lou Montanez, and Oscar Salazar in the lineup. The Tides pitching staff has been real helpful to the Orioles, and they still have some people left, but eventually the Birds will need to stop bringing people up, if only because they will run out of them. Left that could help now are David Pauley and Chris Waters, but after that, the rotation will need to function on their own.

This whole situation is difficult for the Orioles, but it is one they will need to get through. Mainly because nothing really can be done about it unless the current pitchers can do better. Let's hope they do.

(Photo credit: AP)

A Look at the "Other" Orioles

On our collective front pages in the Orioles rebuilding effort there’s Nolan Reimold and Brad Bergesen, Matt Wieters and maybe even David Hernandez, but there are some other players on the roster who aren’t “enjoying” the scrutiny that comes with a high profile. Well maybe it is time some obscure blog gave them a bit of attention too.

Don’t get mad about last night’s game; sometimes there is simply just a better team on the field. Jon Lester wasn’t going to be stopped yesterday and the O’s aren’t ready to take down the pitcher who is now 8-0 against Baltimore. But let’s not let the Orioles entirely off the hook. Jason Berken has looked little better than any of the journeymen this team has brought in to complete the rotation in recent years, and after 7 starts I am beginning to wonder whether hitters didn’t need a whole lot of time to figure him out. Through his first 2 starts, Berken was looking like he could fill a hole in the rotation as more than just a stopgap, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 innings. Since that start however, Berken has had a whopping 8.51 ERA and only narrowly avoided creeping above that disastrous 9 mark with some fortuitous breaks.

So what will the Orioles do with Berken? For lack of a better option, keep him in there and hope things work out. Baltimore has so depleted its AAA stockpile of pitchers that the only options remaining are the all-but-untouchable Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Brian Matusz. The O’s pitching staff could have an ERA over 10 and Matusz would stay down, but Andy MacPhail hasn’t ruled out bringing up Tillman late in the season. However, I would think that this hinges largely on whether a healthy Koji Uehara can be put back in the starting rotation. If he is and David Hernandez starts to improve, Berken could be the one sent down. If Hernandez continues to scuffle however, Baltimore will likely try to protect their investment in Hernandez and send him down, and let the welcome surprise (but not long-term prospect) Berken take his lumps.

The Orioles lack a true third baseman in their minor league system, or at least not one who is having anything more than a solid year during an otherwise unremarkable career. When Oscar Salazar started to get his at-bats and began making solid contact (8-22 so far this season), I grew extremely hopeful that he could spell Melvin Mora more frequently to keep him fresh (and extend his career), or even replace him for a year or so until the Orioles came up with a solid young player. And then I saw him in person against the Nationals on Sunday, and had the experience of sitting right behind third base to get a close look at Salazar. Playing next to Robert Andino, one could see that Oscar does not have the range or instincts as a fielder to play every day at third base. His bat is still powerful and can be great in a pinch-hitting role, but this is one time I won’t question Trembley’s decision to keep him on the bench.

At 31 years old, Salazar’s glove isn’t going to get any better. He can be a good bat when Baltimore needs it for as long as they need it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was sent down to make room for Cesar Izturis in July- in the National League it is critical to have extra hitters on the bench, but an American League team needs to put more emphasis on having solid defensive players first. It won’t be an easy decision for management, but it would be the right one.

To Orioles Fans: Be Patient

It has been a while since we've posted here, but don't worry, we are back. We all are just busy, but hopefully once things get a little more steady we will be back in full force.

With this, it has been nice for the Orioles lately. They won two out of three in the Battle of the Beltway with the Nats and they won the Memorial Day matinee with Toronto. But, with people are getting hurt and with the release of Adam Eaton, more rosters moves are being made. Jason Berken has been called up and will start today for the Birds. For info on him, check out Windsor's Prospect Report on him. Berken has done very well in his five starts with Norfolk this season, going 2-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 16 strikeouts to six walks.

But one thing that has been occurring is the fans are getting more impatient. Attendance for the Orioles is down, and many people want to see Matt Wieters and the big three pitchers in the majors. 11 losing seasons about to be 12 is upsetting fans. Many were wondering and hoping if Chris Tillman was coming up in the roster, one of the big three pitchers. Especially with the initial successes of Brad Bergeson and Nolan Reimold, who were not the highly touted people, we should bring up the bigger names, right?

But to all Orioles fans, we need to be patient, and wait this out.

In this day and age, we have all come to a "football mentality" of we want things happening sooner rather than later. It is especially frustrating when the Orioles have had losing seasons numerous years and the AL East is routinely beating Baltimore. But Andy MacPhail is right not to rush anyone that is very important, mainly Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta. Bringing them up now will not make the Orioles a competitive team when they are not ready will only hurt their chances to reach their potential.

In the past, the Orioles have had issues bringing up farm system players too quickly. Daniel Cabrera and Jeff Fiorentino come to mind. Cabrera had all the potential in the world to be a dominating fastball-changeup pitcher, even many opposing general managers felt so, but was brought up from Bowie in 2004 after less than a full season there. He had some bright spots, but he never established control and is now off the roster. Jeff Fiorentino was another player with great potential as an outfielder. In 2005 when the team needed outfielders, he was brought up from single-A Frederick, and although he played all right, he never got to his potential. After bouncing to a couple teams in 2008 he landed back on the Orioles, but he is not expected to be a major part of the Orioles future. He is currently in Norfolk batting .254.

The Orioles will not be competitive if they bring up any of the four above players, and they can't waste their potential. Bring them up when they are ready. Likely Wieters will be up this year and at least Tillman will join be the start of next season. But MacPhail is doing the right thing and being patient with these players.

We need to be as well. It is hard, but being patient with the young Birds is the way to go. But for now, let's celebrate the successes of the ones that have come into the majors, and good luck to Berken today.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Prospect Report: Jason Berken

I promise, one of these days I will in fact profile a position prospect. Quite honestly this system still needs an awful lot of help with position prospects without the last names of Wieters and Snyder. So rather than reaching for a position player, I have to give credit where credit is due, and profile the oft-overlooked Jason Berken. Berken was part of the Baysox’s incredible run last season, ranking second in wins on that team only to Brad Bergesen. He started this season in AA to the surprise of many, but rather than grumbling about being slighted he went about his work and was recently promoted to Norfolk. In his debut with the Tides he dazzled, pitching 7 shutout innings with only 4 hits allowed to go with 3 strikeouts and zero walks.

So, who is Jason Berken? Jason Berken is a 25-year old right handed starter hailing from the small town of De Pere, Wisconsin. Berken started playing baseball at Clemson University, where he put together a couple solid seasons as a starter in 2004 and 2006, missing the 2005 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. His rebound from surgery in 2006 was impressive, as he posted a 9-3 record in 18 starts, pitching to a 3.22 ERA in 81 innings. In doing this he was able to strike out 75 batters while walking 34. At Clemson he was known as a team leader and pitched his best when against ACC competition. The Orioles decided to take a chance on him in the 6th round of the 2006 Amateur Draft, placing him at short season Aberdeen where he excelled. Jason took a small step back in 2007, going 9-9 at Frederick with a 4.53 ERA and posting a career high 49 walks. Last season Berken exploded onto the map at Bowie with his finest season, going 12-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 124-38 K-BB ratio.

Strengths: Jason Berken has the full complement of pitchers that you would like in a starting pitcher. He throws a 91-92 mph fastball with a changeup, slider, and curveball to complement. Berken’s greatest strength is in his command of these pitches, particularly his fastball. His slider can become a valuable go-to pitch for Berken when he is locating it properly. Unlike other young pitchers, Jason Berken is unafraid to pitch to contact and go right after hitters, which is exactly the sort of mature approach that can help him translate his game to the majors. As has been seen very often, young pitchers who are afraid to pitch to contact find themselves trying to be too perfect and get hit around in the big leagues. Berken has shown resilience throughout his career from the Tommy John surgery to his early struggles at Frederick. Even this season he showed that resilience, in rebounding from his first two mediocre starts at Bowie (total of 8 IP allowing 5 ER), only to pitch 7 shutout after his promotion to Norfolk.

Weaknesses: Jason Berken, while having good command, does not have the great level of command like other current and former Orioles prospects Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen. His command of offspeed pitches needs improvement, or more experienced hitters will just sit on his fastball which is not a plus pitch. In the end, Berken relies heavily on having good command because none of his pitches grades out much above average. Another concern is the fact that Berken, aside from his short stint at Aberdeen, has never been the top pitcher on his staff, including all of his years at Clemson. Jason Berken is also an injury concern, because even though he has felt no ill effects from the Tommy John surgery in recent years, that surgery is still a red flag for scouts.

Projection: Jason Berken is a tough pitcher who has fought his way to recognition, in much of the same way that Bergesen came out from anonymity last year. Jason Berken had a tough hand dealt to him this year being placed at Bowie rather than Norfolk, but he handled it well and now has his shot at AAA. Berken does not command the heavy sinker that gives Bergesen significant success, but does have a good deal of polish and poise which makes him a good option for callup sometime this year. He might not be a top-tier prospect like Tillman, Arrieta, or Hernandez, but the O’s would be far wiser to bring Berken up this season ahead of those aforementioned prospects who need more polish first. It’s hard to see where Berken might end up down the road, as the bevy of top pitchers should block him from a permanent rotation spot. I expect Berken to have a rotation spot by the end of this season and compete for a back-of-the rotation place or long reliever spot next season.

Note: There is an excellent piece on MiLB.com discussing the early success of the top young pitchers for the Orioles in the minor leagues this season. Definitely check it out.

(Photo Credit: Kevin Pataky/MLB.com)