Preview: (10) Maryland vs. (2) Memphis- Fight for the Sweet 16

While the rest of the ACC (save for UNC and Duke) are falling apart, the Terps are still in the hunt after the first round. They are taking on a popular Final Four pick in many brackets, not to mention last year's runner-up in the Memphis Tigers, the #2 seed in the West Regional. Let's take a look at Memphis, and what Maryland will have to do to pull off the upset.

(2) Memphis 32-3 (16-0), Conference USA

What to Watch Out For: The Tigers have a different player leading just about every statistical category. Much is made of Tyreke Evans with his 16.6 points per game, but they have weapons all over the court with the presence of Shawn Taggart and Robert Dozier underneath, both averaging over 7 rebounds a contest. They should be able to hammer the boards over Maryland’s undersized lineup. However, Maryland has had to overcome this in just about every ACC game this season, so this will be nothing new. Against the Cal State Northridge Matadors, their bench also shined as Roburt Sallie could not be stopped from three point range en route to 35 points. Their bench is not usually a significant part of their offense, but Sallie could be a real player to watch if he gets hot again.

What you Might Not Know: This is also a much improved free throw shooting team, with all but one starter shooting 70% or better from the line. A major knock on this team last season was their lack of consistency at the charity stripe, and it may have even done in their national championship hopes last year. However, I still feel good if Maryland has to foul late.

Why Memphis Can Win: In the first round, Memphis was (by admission of their players and Coach John Calipari) looking ahead to the next round and wasn’t prepared for the aggressiveness of Cal State- Northridge. They should be geared up for this one, especially with Greivis Vasquez unwisely stoking the flames by claiming that Memphis would finish under .500 in the ACC. Northridge utilized a pressure zone defense to limit Memphis’ opportunities for good shots, limiting the Tigers to 1-13 from behind the arc with the exception of Sallie’s barrage of threes- Memphis now has more experience with this style, the same one Maryland used against California and the same one the Terps will likely try today. Additionally, Memphis has a great deal more experience in the tournament than Maryland and will react to the pressure with more composure than the Maryland squad that was hammered in the second round in their last foray into March Madness.

Why Maryland Can Win: This team just has “it” right now. They seem to be finding ways to win that they never could rely on earlier in the season. Eric Hayes has finally decided not to be a pure shooter and drive to be basket with more regularity, which should catch the Tigers off guard as they carefully watch Greivis Vasquez. While Vasquez shouldn’t have called out Conference USA, there is no question that they have been tested more often in conference than the Memphis Tigers. They have fought tough against the top teams in the country on a consistent basis late in the season, while Memphis hasn’t played against a truly high quality team since February 7th against Gonzaga, and lost against the two other tournament teams they played this season, Xavier and Syracuse, early in the season. Gary Williams will be able to come up with a creative game plan to enable Maryland to run with Memphis and take advantage of their speed to neutralize their opponent’s size advantage.

The Rundown: Memphis will be able to concentrate their defense on Vasquez to bottle up his opportunities and force his supporting cast to make plays without him- they won’t be able to make enough, though they will keep it close early. Maryland simply isn’t deep enough to keep up with Memphis for a full 40 minutes, and Vasquez will get into foul trouble as he plays even more aggressive to get out of the Tiger’s pressure D. Vasquez talked about “showing [Memphis] what the ACC is all about.” The ACC is 3-4 so far in this tournament, and I just don’t see it getting much better. Memphis might not be very tested, but they are overflowing with talent and are too deep to fall apart late in the game.

Memphis is favored by 9 points. The nod goes to the Tigers, but the Terps should cover.

Photo Credit: (Baltimore Sun/Karl Merton Ferron)

Free Kicks: Pat Myself on the Back Edition

So I know things have been sparse and spotty on the blog this week, but trust me there is a very good reason. I have been in the Midwest on a business trip, Falco is broadcasting games left and right, and Windsor... is in Disneyworld. Yes, Disneyworld. I am not sure what he ever did to deserve such a joy as the rest of us are slaving away to keep this shop open, but he has decided that Space Mountain trumps Maryland in the Big Dance. If MD hadn't beaten Cal, I might not have blamed him. So for this week you have been left with me, and no I don't post during my meetings (unfortunately). Before I hurry and post a last minute preview for the Memphis game, let’s take a moment to sit back, relax, and line up for the kick…

The Official Patting Myself on the Back Moment
Back on Tuesday, I predicted three major upsets that most of the prognosticators were overlooking. I called (10) Michigan to take down (7) Clemson, (12) Western Kentucky over (5) Illinois, and in the biggest shocker, I thought (13) Cleveland State's defense would be too much for (4) Wake Forest and in doing so I predicted the upset. I was wrong on one count- Cleveland State scored 84 points, far above what I thought. This incredibly lucky swathe of correct predictions deserved a bit of recognition, though even I didn’t think I would hit all three. In retrospect I wish I had had the resolve to go with (11) Dayton over (6) West Virginia; while I thought it would be close I didn’t think Dayton would win. West Virginia could have gone far in this tournament, they just got a bad draw in taking on one of the few solid mid-major teams to get an at-large this year.

Ravens Not Standing Pat as Draft Approaches
Early in this offseason you could have counted the number of draft needs into about half-dozen positions. While the number of positions the Ravens could use long-term help at hasn’t diminished, the need for some of them has taken a back seat. The signing of nickelback and kick returner Chris Carr helps solidify the punt return and kick return depth with the loss of Jim Leonhard, and I love the signing of L.J. Smith. When healthy, Smith is one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL. He hasn’t been healthy much over the last two years, but he won’t be on the field as much as the #2 tight end behind Todd Heap. Heap has been plagued with injuries on his own over the last few seasons, and Smith will help make this unit much deeper- we won’t be caught with Edgar Jones at #1 if Heap goes down. With starting cornerbacks Dominique Foxworth and Fabian Washington set, the Ravens have replaced their top three cornerbacks from this time last year with Chris McAlister, Samari Rolle, and (thank God) Corey Ivy off the team. They could still use some help, but this pretty much narrows the 1st round options. I know Ozzie Newsome likes to go with “best player available”, but let’s hope that player is a wide receiver.

Maryland Takes on Memphis, Looking for Sweet 16 Berth
You think I would take this on in a Free Kicks segment? I gotta start on the preview!

Postgame Analysis: Terps put Golden Bears in Hibernation

If you are a Maryland fan you have to be thrilled about this win. Maryland was picked by many prognosticators to take this game with the way they played in the ACC tournament. Four players (Vasquez, Bowie, Hayes, and Neal) had at least 14 points, and the Terps were lights out in the second half, raising their field goal percentage from 37-49% from halftime to the final buzzer. Greivis Vasquez was a man possessed, racking up 27 points and 7 rebounds along with countless pressure-induced steals late in the game.

However, California did little to help themselves. They shot an abysmal 29% from three point land, 14% below their season average of 43%, highest in the nation. Many Terps fans will chalk this up to Maryland’s stout zone defense, but throughout the game the Bears had some great looks at the basket but they just went completely cold. Additionally, this is not a team that has had to rely on their inside game and as such, they didn’t make nearly as big of an impact in the paint as they could have against this undersized Maryland lineup. Despite all of this, Maryland took the Cal game plan and completely turned it on its head. Once Cal lost its composure and confidence in its outside shot, the Terps were able to eliminate the only other offensive options for the Golden Bears.

The key factor in this ballgame was Gary Williams’ coaching. He did an amazing job in planning for this game and taking the opponent out of their element entirely. For all their deficiencies in size, this team will never be out-worked or out-coached. A lot of focus will be given to Vasquez, and deservedly so, but this was one of Coach Williams’ better games this season (and that is saying something). Now Maryland will go on to face Memphis, which struggled early against Cal State- Northridge before pulling away late, likely indicative of simply overlooking their opponent and sleeping on the low seeded Matadors. They won’t be sleeping on the Terps, but we will save that for another day.

I think this game deserves an MVP/LVP:

MVP: How could it be anyone other than Greivis Vasquez? He makes this team function; without him this team gets outscored by anyone. However, I will give it to someone else just for variety. Dave Neal was a presence inside, and as I cited during the game, he was everywhere on the court. He kept Cal from taking over inside and even racked up a steal to complement his 15 points and 4 rebounds. His performance isn’t huge in the stat line, but the lone senior is playing all-out to have just one more game.

LVP: This is hard, but I have to give it to Sean Mosley. He disappeared early in the game by racking up 3 careless fouls and going 1-4 in his field goal attempts. He had 2 assists to 1 turnover, but he just wasn’t a factor when the rest of his compatriots were stepping up their games.

Opening Round Games to Watch for... and Under-the-Radar Upsets

March Madness is upon us, with Maryland making an incredible run into the tournament after being left almost for dead by more than a few prognosticators (ATH included) earlier in the season. It is incredible, though not so surprising I suppose, that no one is calling for Gary Williams’ head anymore, though he will still have to do a lot more to return Maryland to its traditional place among the nation’s better (and more consistent) programs. In the meantime, let us revel in the glory that is March Madness- and whether the Terps make it to the Final Four or are knocked out by 3-point-shooting Cal, Maryland fans can rejoice in the rejuvenation of this team over the latter part of the season.

However, as we are inundated with predictions from every bracket, we would be loathe not to include some of our most eagerly awaited matchups from the first round, which will be fun to watch regardless of whether they will make anyone’s Final Four predictions. The joy of March Madness is watching teams that have nothing to lose and are going at one another to stay alive for just one more game. These opening round games will be intriguing enough to make you tune in whether you are a fan of the teams, whether it impacts your bracket, or whether you are just a casual fan.

#5 West Virginia v. #11 Dayton: Dayton is an explosive at-large from the A-10 looking to obtain some credibility against a physical West Virginia squad. I love WVU this year because they can shoot from the outside and have great physical play inside, but Dayton has a decent resume, having beaten Marquette early and Xavier later in the season. I think this is a classic battle of two teams that are probably equal on the court but seeded according to their conference strength.

#8 Louisiana State v. #9 Butler: These are two teams that were both favored going into their conference tournaments but faded in critical games to the eventual winner. How insane is it, by the way, that the #1 team in a major conference winds up as a #8 seed? Not that insane when you look at the SEC this year. We haven’t seen these teams up against high caliber opponents very often this season; we should learn a lot watching these teams take on one another.

As for upsets, VCU, Siena, and USC are cited as being great teams that could make a splash, but let me throw out a couple others you may have overlooked:

#13 Cleveland State over #4 Wake Forest: Wake has played down to competition this season, and if they are caught sleeping against a strong defensive team like Cleveland State this could be a huge upset.

#12 Western Kentucky over #5 Illinois: Just because Illinois can be really bad some nights. And WKU has won 11 of their last 12 games, and their mascot is… well, something.

#10 Michigan over #7 Clemson: Am I a Michigan fan? Yes. Is that why I am calling this upset? Only a little. A diary writer on one of my favorite blogs put it this way when describing Clemson’s offense: “They average 79 points a game to Michigan's 67. Given the ACC at times can be dump-and-go Olympics where defense gives way to LOOKHOWFASTWERUNUPDOWNTHECOURTOMGTYLERHANSBROOOOOOOugh, though, means they might be mildly taken aback to find defenders rotating.” If Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims manage to combine for their obligatory 32 points, Clemson may not be able to overcome the 1-3-1 zone defense that took down Duke, UCLA, Illinois, Minnesota (twice) and Purdue this season.

College Basketball BlogPoll- This Week

On the second go at the blogpoll, Windsor and I have created an interesting top-25.

The top-4 were very easy, but then things get interesting. Most teams in the 5-12 range had losses this week; either a beatdown by a high ranked team or a loss to a low/unranked squad. Same went to teams around the 18-20 spot. It was a very difficult poll to round out in the end.

Some notes:
--ACC and Big East continue to fight to see which is the better conference. Both conferences have five teams in our top-25, with the Big East having three in the top-5 and both having four in the top-10. Originally is was the ACC with four and the Big East with six, but Florida State's entrance and Syracuse's exit evens things out.
--The SEC finally breaks into the poll, getting LSU in at #24. Florida is one of the last teams out, and South Carolina also has a chance to get in the ranking eventually.
--Dayton would have been in the poll if not for their loss to Charlotte.

Rank	Team
1	Connecticut
2	Oklahoma
3	North Carolina
4	Pittsburgh
5	Louisville
6	Duke
7	Clemson
8	Wake Forest
9	Marquette
10	Michigan St.
11	Butler
12	Memphis
13	Purdue
14	UCLA
15	Xavier
16	Villanova
17	Kansas
18	Arizona St.
19	Gonzaga
20	Illinois
21	Utah St.
22	Florida St.
23	Washington
24	Louisiana St.
25	Missouri

ATH is Newest Voter on College Basketball Blogpoll!

Hey everyone, I know you must have been pining to get me back, but no worries, I am back on staff. No, it wasn't the Ravens loss that had me off of blogging for a week, but the length of those previews were getting to me and I just needed some time off! However, I wasn't entirely through working on the blog during my brief vacation.

I got in touch with some great people at March to Madness about joining their blogpoll for college basketball, and I am happy to report that ATH is their newest voter! I encourage you to check out their blog on Wednesday evenings to find out the general poll results and how different blogs around the country voted. We will do our best here to make sure we post our top 25 so we can get your reaction. This week the top 25 was put together by Falco and Windsor, so here goes:

1) Duke
2) Connecticut
3) Oklahoma
4) Pittsburgh
5) Wake Forest
6) North Carolina
7) Louisville
8) Marquette
9) Michigan State
10) Clemson
11) Xavier
12) Butler
13) Texas
14) Arizona State
15) Syracuse
16) Illinois
17) Purdue
18) Memphis
19) St. Mary's
20) Villanova
21) Gonzaga
22) UCLA
23) Kentucky
24) Minnesota
25) Notre Dame

Thoughts? More content coming later today, stay tuned!