Ravens' Midseason Forecast

Last year we watched the Ravens play with the thought in our minds that this was a very good team that was just a hair below the elite teams in the AFC. I entered this season wondering whether they could make the leap to the elite level. Unfortunately, they have taken a step back- not just below the Colts/Patriots/Steelers level, but below playoff level in the conference. Don’t get me wrong, this team is still good, but only that. It is easy to look at the 4-4 record and say that of course this team is average as they stand now, but one must look at who their losses have come to. Cincinnati, for all its reputation, is still a division leader, as are Minnesota and New England. By no means are these losses embarrassing, but the idea that this team couldn’t pull out a win in any of these cases in disturbing. I am going to try to take a look at the biggest weaknesses on this team and what will be the difference whether they reach the playoffs or not.

The Secondary: Ed Reed is doing too much and getting hurt in the process, and the troubles of the cornerbacks is well-documented on this blog. While the Ravens have great depth at safety, neither Haruki Nakamura nor Tom Zbikowski are Ed Reed-level safeties. If Reed can’t go, that will be another huge blow to this group. To be honest, the Ravens are not starting cornerbacks who have any history to suggest that they will play better as the season goes on. Unfortunately this Achilles heel should stick around for a while.

The Kicker: One has to wonder whether the Ravens final drive could have been more successful last week against the Bengals if they didn’t have to try to get two scores rather than just one. We will never know, as Steve Hauschka missed yet another key field goal late in the game- and it wasn’t a 48 yarder as it was against Minnesota. He has never been a particularly accurate kicker, and while I didn’t think Stover should have been kept around I didn’t think that Hauschka was necessarily the answer. If a change is made or Hauschka gets his leg or mind straightened out, this could improve as the season goes on.

The Run Defense: I don’t get it. Baltimore used to shut down every running back who attempted to run right at them- now they are being gashed up the middle. This can’t be the result of losing Bart Scott, though revisionist historians would love to say they thought the Ravens should throw the checkbook at him to keep him in town. I worry that Kelly Gregg isn’t playing at his traditional high level, but he has been part of great Baltimore defenses in the past. The only great changes in this defense have been Greg Mattison and a suddenly awful secondary. The logical excuse would be to say that a terrible secondary has led to more players being sent into coverage, but that hasn’t been the case as far as I can see. I can’t explain this, so I have to assume it will get better over the year; but it will have to turn around by Week 12 or Baltimore may want to shop for a new defensive coordinator.

The Offensive Inconsistency: This isn’t going anywhere. So far this season either the defense holds the opponent under 20 points or the offense goes off- but it has only happened at the same time once this season; against the Broncos. I am not sure if this is a problem with execution or with Cam Cameron failing to adjust to certain teams, but the team can change from week to week from humming along to ground to a halt. However, two of this team’s three games where they scored less than 30 points came against the Bengals, who have two shut-down cornerbacks. This goes back to the weakness of the Ravens receivers, who are unable to matchup with elite corners (with the exception of Derrick Mason) and leave Joe Flacco with very few options. With the right matchups at wide receiver, this offense can be successful. When the corners are above average, this team will struggle offensively. Looking at the schedule, this could mean 3 or 4 more substandard offensive days.

The Browns game should go better on both counts, but with the Colts, the Steelers (twice), the Bears, and the Packers left on the schedule, this team will have a lot of work to do to reach the near-clinching 10-6 record needed to have hope of making the playoffs.

Ravens Offseason Juggling Act Begins

I just had to take this opportunity to outline some of the turnover going on with the Ravens in the postseason, so please excuse the Free Kicks-esque format, it was necessary for organizational purposes. It seems that with the free-fall of Maryland basketball (and the accompanying questions about how the game has passed Gary Williams by) and the annual attempt to piece together a starting rotation on the Orioles (with so many cheap free agents, why haven’t we brought them in?), it is easy to forget that the Ravens have a good deal going on themselves, in the front office, the coaching staff, and on the field.

The Front Office
I sure hope George Kokinis has the same impact on the Cleveland Browns that Phil Savage did. For that matter, I hope his departure from the Ravens has the same impact Savage’s did. That is, very little. The Ravens have a long history of reloading in the front office, like the USC of pro football front offices. There are a lot of great groups, but so long as the Pete Carroll/Ozzie Newsome is there, they will succeed. Since Kokinis is in the division, I won’t wish him the best of luck, but I hope he is happy there in his 4-6 win seasons. Kokinis, as many of you know, has served for the last 6 years and has just been hired as the new General Manager of the Mangini-led Cleveland Browns. I don’t know much about Kokinis except that I hate it when division rivals get our front office people because they have an in-depth knowledge of our personnel and Eric Mangini is a perfect coach to make full use of it. I for one love the Mangini hiring for Browns fans; but I hate it for the Ravens. With any luck I will be wrong, and Mangini/Kokinis will turn out as bad a match as the feared Crennel/Savage duo.

The Coaching Staff
Speaking of Mangini, his former post as Jets head coach has been filled by beloved Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. The man deserved that top spot eventually, and he will have his team fired up like no other. The good news for Ravens fans is that Ryan likely will not be calling the defenses, so the best defensive coordinator in the league won’t ever have the scheme or quality of defense he had here in Baltimore. His replacement, Greg Mattison, is a safe choice. You knew it had to be a Harbaugh hire, and would have to be someone in-house with the unique defense and personnel on that side of the ball. Moreover, in order to persuade Lewis/Suggs/Scott to return you had to have someone at the top they would like and respect, and they have that in Mattison. I doubt he will be a great defensive coordinator in the traditional sense, or he would have been offered an NFL coordinator job earlier. He has only been in the league for one season, either for lack of interest or lack of production, but I don’t anticipate that will be a huge problem- he will take input from the veterans and if the group stays intact there may be a slight dropoff in the defense, but it may not be noticeable if the offense is able to hold onto the ball longer.

There is word that he wants to blitz more, and while I am not sure that is possible, I wouldn’t buy much into it anyway. I have seen a lot of coordinators hired, and I have never once heard any of them say they want to blitz less. They all say they want to be more aggressive, attack the quarterback, etc. Once they are in the booth and are worried about those short crossing routes, we see how committed they really are to sending the house.


The Team
Nothing yet, but it is coming. The move not to franchise Lewis was a good move; he is just not worth that much on the free agent market to merit it. Remember how tough it was to move Jason Taylor? And he was a defensive end (perennial position of need on many clubs) and reigning defensive player of the year! Ray just would not get that kind of money. Hopefully he knows it. I can’t see a scenario where they let Lewis go, not after what he has meant to this franchise. There isn’t even an Aaron Rodgers situation here that would merit pushing out the face of the franchise. Terrell Suggs has suggested that he, Bart Scott, and Ray should take hometown discounts to stay together, and Scott made similar remarks earlier in the season, noting that when players leave this scheme they tend to have less success with other clubs. I certainly hope they are genuine sentiments, but they will not settle for pennies on the dollar, and I don’t blame them. The Ravens will be in a real crunch this season, with Jim Leonhard and others also looking at other clubs. I doubt Leonhard will want to stay if he has a shot at losing his job to a healthy Dawan Landry, so Baltimore may have to pony up a respectable contract offer or make him some promises in order to keep him. This will be a dicey free agent market for the Ravens, and they won’t even have to look past Owings Mills to keep it interesting.