Ravens-Steelers Preview: Time to Make Their Move

A programming note: I am moving today (I am actually writing this in a tiny corner of my room with a TV on one side and a huge box of kitchenware on the other), so Falco and Windsor have again provided the What I’m Wondering portion of the preview. Enjoy.

While most die-hard Ravens fans will be quick to point out how much the offense has improved since the Ravens first met the Steelers back on September 29th, I would also like to remind readers that this Steelers team has been no slouch, either. The Ravens’ biggest win this season has been against the struggling Redskins, while the Steelers have taken down the Patriots and Cowboys in the last 2 weeks alone. This game will determine whether the Ravens are fighting for the AFC North or a Wildcard spot, and with the AFC East being as strong as it is (who saw that coming?), a division lead would be a much safer bet. Finally, let’s not forget that a first-round bye is still on the table. Tennessee has the #1 seed almost locked up, but the winner of the AFC North looks to be in prime position for a first round by and homefield advantage until the AFC Championship. The Ravens always play better at home; they need that homefield advantage. This will be like Michigan-Ohio State of old- a big rivalry game that means something for winning the conference.

What Flacco and Windsor are Wondering:

Can the Ravens protect Flacco?
I know that questions like this are cliché, but in this game it is of paramount importance. The Steelers’ pass defense is predicated on the pass rushing ability of Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison, and that tandem has wreaked havoc on the Ravens offense in their recent meetings. In their first matchup this season, a 23-20 overtime loss for the Ravens, Joe Flacco was sacked five times. That simply won’t cut it. The Ravens cannot win this game without Flacco getting into a rhythm in the passing game, and that can’t happen without solid pass protection. In other words, Flacco can’t be on his back-o. - Windsor

Can the pass rushers finish?
In previous games the Ravens have had no trouble getting to Ben Roethlisberger, but he is repeatedly able to break the tackles and make big plays down the field. Big Ben is easily the greatest quarterback in the game at breaking tackles in the pocket, and his composure and field awareness makes it such that when he breaks those tackles he can break off big plays down the field. Thus the Ravens have to not only finish off Roethlisberger when they have the opportunity, but when they aren’t able to the players in coverage need to stay with the play until the whistle is blown, not just until it appears that Ben is going to go down. - Windsor

How will the Ravens deal with the Steelers' rushing attack?
It doesn't matter if Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore, or the one-legged man is getting the carries, the Steelers will run the football well and often. It is the crux of their style even if Big Ben is the star. The Ravens have had one of the best rushing defense in football, still not allowing a 100-yard rusher this season, and though they have faced stronger rushing attacks this season, the Steelers are not afraid to run it. Look for Willie Parker to constantly run through the middle; the Steelers don't often run east-west, even though that would fit Parker's style. Trevor Pryce, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs will be tested greatly today, and the Ravens need to be ready. - Falco

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

This Steelers defense is the best in the NFL right now. I say that not only because their numbers are better than the Ravens (those number can be deceiving), but that they have done it against stout competition, shutting down the top offenses in the league. They are averaging a little over 14 points per game allowed, an incredible state made even more impressive by their offensive weakness this season. In many ways, the Ravens and Steelers defenses are almost identical. Rushing allowed per game? Ravens 77, Steelers 73. Passing yards allowed per game? Ravens 176, Steelers 169. Sacks? Ay, there’s the rub. Despite what is often considered a blistering pass rush, the Ravens have only sacked the opposing quarterback 28 times to the Steelers 45, which is currently tied for the league’s best. However, before anyone hits the panic button, I think this stat will be balanced out in the end as well. No matter what anyone (including myself) thinks about the “unbalanced line” that Cam Cameron has introduced, it has revealed a tremendous amount of faith that the coaching staff has in this group of linemen. Joe Flacco has only been sacked 23 times this season. Ben Roethlisberger? 38 times, including 9 times against the Ravens earlier in the season. It is safe to say that the sack numbers here could wind up even.

In fact, when all is said and done there is very little separating these two defenses. Rex Ryan is a bit more of a varied defensive coordinator, while Dick LeBeau, Steelers defensive coordinator, tends to either send everything or nothing. With Ryan, you will have a blitzer coming or the threat of a blitz from numerous angles, and he is not afraid to send anyone in no matter how the play appears pre-snap. With LeBeau, he will crash the entire line or send a Troy Palomalu safety blitz or utilize a zone blitz, but he does not have the “mad scientist” in him like Rex Ryan does. What the Steelers do they do extremely well, no need to mix things up too much.

This game is going to come down to how well each offense can execute against consistent pressure and a lockdown secondary. First, the Steelers. Surprisingly, the Ravens are averaging 24.3 points per game, 2 points higher than the Steelers this season. However, do not confuse this for complete offense ineptitude. Yes, Pittsburgh’s offensive line is not what it was with Alan Faneca, and it has broke down in the passing game. But in his last 4 games, Ben Roethlisberger has been able to throw for 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception, and has been taking sacks rather than throwing errant passes. He is still not playing like the Big Ben of the last few seasons, but nor is he struggling as much as he was earlier in the season. Much of the reason for his early season struggles as well as his recent turnaround has been the return of the running game, namely the presence of Willie Parker. Parker has not lit up opponents this season, averaging only 3.9 yards per carry (good for the worst in his career), but he has provided a legitimate running threat that Mewelde Moore cannot give in a starter role.

Like the Ravens, the Steelers have compensated for their offensive difficulties by limiting Roethlisberger to safe throws, short routes to full-time cheap shot artist and part-time wide receiver Hines Ward and setting up for a long gainer down the middle of the field from Santonio Holmes or Nate Washington. The Ravens defense has given up more than one game-winning drive because they allowed Big Ben to work the middle of the field. It will be a struggle to maintain tight man coverage, because this wide receiver group has 3 legitimate gamebreakers. More than anything else however, they have relied on their defense to set themselves up with excellent field position. They have picked off opponents 16 times, forced 10 fumbles, and are limiting opponents to only 241.3 yards of offense per game. Those numbers are forcing teams to punt or otherwise turn the ball over deep in their own territory, giving the offense a very short field to deal with.

The Ravens have followed a similar formula (wow, this is getting eerie, huh?), though they have one key advantage over the Steelers. Unlike Pittsburgh, Baltimore has not had a quarterback prone to the “Big Mistake”. Ben’s success in the past has lent himself at some times this season to try to make a play that isn’t there; he has always had a tendency to try to take the game over himself. He has held onto the ball too long and killed drives with his own pride. The coaching staff has gone to great lengths to remind Joe to throw the ball away, and the young QB has done a solid job in not making a huge game-changing mistake. Additionally, the Steelers only have their traditional gameplan- there will be nothing in this game that the Ravens defense has never seen before. On the other hand, you can rest assured knowing that Cam Cameron has something special planned for this one. He has yet to enter a game this season without a new wrinkle, and when the offense sputters, he will be ready to bust it out. I don’t expect the unbalanced line to work well against a disciplined, tenacious, and smart defense like the Steelers, but he will have something else. The Ravens run more trick plays than any other team in the league, expect to see some more of that to break the offense out of a slump.

Finally, let’s stop all piling onto the LeRon McClain bandwagon already. Yes, he is the most effective Ravens running back. If only he was effective by traditional NFL standards- his 3.7 yards per carry are woefully unimpressive even for a former fullback and a power runner. If he is the number 1 back, he will have to be more versatile. McClain has done an incredible job this season, but he is a complementary back first, and the Ravens will need more than him to run on Pittsburgh.

I have trouble seeing either offense succeeding against the other defense, and I have additional worries about the Ravens. Last week, against the #7 defense in the NFL, the Ravens offense almost stalled to a halt. With the exception of a single great drive late in the game, this attack was limited to whatever the defense happened to give them. Luckily for the Ravens, the Steelers had the same problem against the Cowboys last week. However, I have more to fear from the Cowboys than I do the Redskins.

The Rundown

This game will come down to which quarterback is able to get this team over the hump when the offense starts to struggle, as both defenses will be dominant. While Joe Flacco has been excellent this season in getting the Ravens to last-second wins, he is far from a proven commodity in his young career. While Ben Roethlisberger has struggled, he is still one of the better quarterbacks in this league. The Steelers will get timely touchdowns and while they might make mistakes, so will the Ravens. I know I should, but I just don’t trust Flacco yet. The Steelers D does the job, and Roethlisberger does just enough to win this one.

The nod goes to the Steelers, 17-13

Ravens-Steelers Preview: Playing with the Big Boys

Windsor and I ventured to Ann Arbor this weekend to catch the Michigan-Wisconsin game, and by the time there was 3 minutes left in the third quarter and Michigan trailed 19-0 we wished we had traveled to Clemson instead. By the end, as Michigan upset #9 Wisconsin 27-25 in a furious comeback and fantastic finish, there was no were else is the world I would have rather been. Look out for a full recap and report on Tuesday of one of the most exciting game I have had the pleasure to attend, especially with Windsor. I know this is a Maryland blog, but Go Blue!

However, the world of football moves fast, and it is already time to turn around and prepare for the primetime debut of the Baltimore Ravens. It is no secret that this is an intense rivalry, and that this game means a great deal more to the teams engaged than control of the AFC North. The Ravens have fans starting to believe, at least tentatively, that perhaps this team has a chance to make the playoffs, to even win the division. With San Diego barely putting Oakland to bed today and the AFC South not playing to its potential, the playoffs seem like a legitimate possibility. The Steelers, on the other hand, are trying to reassert themselves as the top dog in the North after a lackluster start that has included a loss to a resurgent Philadelphia squad and a defensive struggle against the hapless Browns.

What I’m Wondering:

How effective will Flacco be against a smart Steelers D?
As long as the Ravens are starting a rookie in Joe Flacco, the quarterback position will continue to be the Number One concern for the Ravens. The Steelers front seven is known to pull numerous stunts and the occasional zone blitz at the line, which will go a long way towards confusing the young (but so far effective) Ravens signal caller. One player in particular to watch out for is second-year player LaMarr Woodley, a force of nature in college, has taken time to bulk up and adjust to the pro game but has 2 sacks in the first 3 games and has been said to figure more and more into the pass rush of the Steelers this season. Lest we forget, Troy Polamalu has a long history of wreaking havoc on Ravens quarterbacks from the safety spot for years. The last time a Ravens rookie qb faced the Steelers for the first time it was not pretty. Will Flacco be able to stay poised in the highest-pressure situation he has faced as a Raven.


Are the Ravens ready for top-flight competition?
I understand how excited everyone is after a 2-0 start against division opponents- really, I do. But did anyone see the Browns-Bengals game today? These are two of the worst teams in the league, and the Ravens failed to put either team away until late in the game. The Steelers, meanwhile, are reigning division champs who won the Super Bowl only 3 years ago. They may have had a difficult run of it so far, but this team is still one of the top teams in the AFC. Unlike years ago, they have recently boasted an explosive offense to go with the second best defense in the NFL. Beating up on the doormats of the AFC is always fun, but how will the Ravens react to playing against top competition for the first time this season?

Will Ben Roethlisberger be held in check?
The defense has looked incredible, ranking 1st in the NFL in yards allowed- again however, against absolutely atrocious offenses. The Steelers, for their part, haven’t looked all that secure along the offensive line themselves. Alan Faneca means a whole lot more than a big body in the middle of the field. He is the field general of the offensive line, setting protections and identifying the rush. With Faneca gone to the Jets, the Steelers have scrambled to make adjustments. The line fell apart against the Eagles, allowing 9 sacks, and didn’t look much better against the Browns. Will the Steelers be able to keep Roethlisberger on his feet long enough to make plays with his arm?

My Mildly Informed Analysis:

This is a rivalry. I know everyone in the AFC North claims a rivalry with the Steelers- one of the troubles with such a repetitive playing schedule, but the Ravens are the only team that has been able to challenge the Steelers consistently in recent years, leading the series 4-2 since 2005. Regardless of the year, the Ravens have always been a tough play for the Steelers. Why? They do what the Steelers do, only they are just as intimidating up front. While the Steelers have migrated more towards a finesse offense with the departure of Jerome Bettis and the maturation of Ben Roethlisberger, the Ravens have remained hardnosed and old fashioned, if old fashioned is defined as a mediocre offense. Don’t throw the records out altogether, but remember that far more will be on the minds of these players tomorrow night.

The Ravens Offense vs. the Steelers Defense
As predicted here last week, Ray Rice’s carries were replaced in large part by Willis McGahee and La’Ron McClain, though neither one was particularly effective. What did surprise me was the failure of Cam Cameron to utilize either back more in passing situations out of the backfield. Flacco made some poor decisions and could have used more of a safety valve to throw to, particularly early on in the game before the defense handed turnovers and great field position over to the offense. I believe the coaching staff may have been too ambitious with Flacco’s development last week, and they would be loathe to repeat the same mistake this week. The running game will likely not be explosive against this tough Steelers defense- that is to be expected. But if the backs can be used to manufacture a short passing game and keep the front seven spread out along the line of scrimmage with linebackers protecting the flats, Flacco could be given the time he needs not to rush his throws downfield.

Unlike Romeo Crennel, Mike Tomlin has been in a position to bring the house. During his year in Minnesota as defensive coordinator, the Vikings ranked 1st in rush defense but 31st in pass defense. To compensate for this disparity the Vikings rarely had the luxury of blitzing, finishing 25th in the NFL in sacks with 30. Upon arrival with the Steelers and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers dropped somewhat in sacks to only 36 in 2007, but remain one of the more fearsome units in the AFC, particularly in terms of stopping the run. That could get into Flacco’s head the first time he is knocked to the ground. Cam Cameron will need to diversify his play calling to keep the Steelers away from the line to open up enough lanes for McGahee and McClain to legitimize the threat of the run.

The Ravens Defense vs. the Steelers Offense
Like the Browns and Bengals, it is difficult to determine what the Steelers offense is right now. This team struggled to put up points against any of their opponents except the Texans in the opener, and without Willie Parker running the football it could get worse. However, I have never felt that Parker was the key to the Steelers success on the ground. The Steelers have always succeeded in a scheme with their running backs- and Rashard Mendenhall, though he was the most overrated running back in the draft, will be a serviceable backup.

The Steelers offensive line has struggled, but it is not so bad that it cannot be remedied. Pittsburgh has been so dominant up front for so long that they may have taken it for granted- calling plays that took far too long to develop. Roethlisberger may have to get back to his roots, getting out of the pocket a bit more and even using his legs to get necessary first downs. Last year in particular Roethlisberger was encouraged to become even more of a pocket passer. Allowing Roethlisberger more freedom should alleviate the difficulties caused by a confused offensive line that does not lack for talent but has yet to gel so far this season.

The Rundown
This game comes down to one sad but critical fact- looking back the Ravens haven’t beaten anyone they should not have beaten. The Ravens, even if they were the 20th or 25th best team in the NFL would still have beaten the Bengals and Browns. So are the Ravens any better than we thought they would be, or are the two Ohio doormats just that bad? I don’t know. What I do know is that the Steelers are good. They have proven it by winning the division consistently since 2000 with the exceptions of 2005 (Cincinnati) and 2006 (Ravens). Based on what I know, the Ravens are unlikely to pull out a win, especially in the swirling winds of Heinz Field.

Flacco will be harried and confused by the Steelers 3-4 defensive front and the running game will not be able to do enough to keep the chains moving consistently. Meanwhile, the Steelers will break out of their offensive funk long enough to make a few big plays and have greater success on the ground than most prognosticators anticipate. The Ravens may be good, but they are not ready for primetime.

The nod goes to the Steelers, 24-13

Photo Credit: (Baltimore Sun; Lloyd Fox)