Should Jim Johnson be the Orioles Future Closer?

It certainly has not been easy for the Orioles in September. Although they defeated the Yankees two games out of three in New York, the team has been forced to deplete some of the roster so they don't risk their future. Such players include Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Brian Matusz, and eventually Chris Tillman.

But for the O's, there is still work to be done. One decision that will need to be made is the future of Jim Johnson as Orioles closer.

Tuesday night, the Orioles had an all too familiar fall, leading Toronto 5-2 going into the 8th, allowing two in the 8th, one in the 9th, and one in the 11th to fall 6-5. For Jim Johnson, who blew the one-run lead in the 9th, his status as eventual closer may have to be evaluated. To his credit, in this outing he had the bases loaded and one out, getting out of it with two strikeouts, but he allowed four bases runners in a row, capped off by a hit-by-pitch to bring in the tying run.

Since taking over the closer's role in August after the George Sherrill trade, he has had nine save opportunities, converting only six. His ERA has gone up nearly a full point since taking over the closer role, and his stuff does not look the same since being the setup man, especially his fastball. Johnson had started out well, but recently has struggled at the position.

To his credit, Johnson is still the choice for closer for the remainder of the season. No one else in the bullpen is worth putting there, including Danys Baez and Cla Meredith, both of whom possibly might not be on the team next year. The Orioles will hope Chris Ray can have a good season year from Tommy John surgery, which is the normal recovery period needed for such a surgery, but as of right now he is not effective.

But Kam Mickolio could be another option. Currently he is on the DL and probably is shut down for the rest of the year due to shoulder inflammation, but before his injury he showed some promise. He has shown some closer-like stuff, including a powerful 98 MPH fastball. His walks are a little too high and he struggled in his last few outings, but the Orioles might want to try him out at closer during spring training.

The Orioles will likely not spend millions of dollars trying to buy a closer on the free agent market, so they will need to decide between Johnson, Ray, and Mickolio who will close next year in spring training. Johnson is a great setup man, but the O's have to be careful in using him as the closer.

(Photo credit: AP)

What do you do With O's Bullpen?

Last year, George Sherrill was the hidden gem of the Erik Bedard trade. O’s fans were excited over the prospect of center fielder Adam Jones solidifying the position for the next decade, and pitcher Chris Tillman one day taking on a #2 or even #1 role in the rotation. Sherrill, at the time, was an extra bonus for a team that needed all the pitching it could get. With Chris Ray injured for the season, Sherrill would be thrown into the closer’s role to simply see what would happen.

In the season that ensued, Sherrill went on to start the season 22 of 24 in save opportunities, but as the season dragged on his workload caught up to him, causing him to struggle down the stretch along with the rest of the ballclub. At least, that is what we thought was the reason. This year he has started the season wild and inconsistent, blowing 2 of his 6 save opportunities and making the rest way too interesting and anxious for O’s fans. And it isn’t just bad luck for a pitcher who has always played things a little loose. Opposing batters are hitting almost 100 points better than last season, clocking in at .326 this season. His home runs given up are also way up on last season. Most recently, Manager Dave Trembley conceded that he is now taking the closer role “day-to-day,” giving Chris Ray and Jim Johnson save opportunities, depending on the situation.

Like many O’s fans, I assumed the bullpen would be a strength this year, buoyed by Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson and a rejuvenated Danys Baez. Johnson, while still pitching well, has an ERA, WHIP, and batting average against that is higher than last season. Ray is still tentative and trying to rediscover the pitches that once made him a no-brainer at the closer spot. His 7.56 ERA is a good indication that he has a long way to go. However, Ray also has yet to step into an actual save situation. As I saw when he took the mound against the Rays several weeks ago in the 9th, sometimes a true closer can shine when he feels as though the game is actually on the line. That is clearly wishful thinking on my part, but Baltimore has got to be pulling for Ray to get it together. Oddly enough, the most effective pitcher in the bullpen so far has been Baez, who is on paper having one of the best years of his career. His fastball is clicking and while he doesn’t make great use of his other pitches he has been great in a relief role.

So what should the Orioles do? I am having trouble seeing why Baez shouldn’t be given a shot to save some games. Johnson struggled in the closer’s role when forced in last season, and Baez does have significant closer experience. From 2002-2005, Baez saved 102 of 126 opportunities with the Indians and Rays as their closer, including saving 41 of 48 chances in 2005. Chris Ray needs more time to find his groove in my opinion before I would be willing to push him out there with the game on the line. Put Baez out there and see what happens, he has the ability and a track record for success.

As for Sherrill, his style is one that keeps fans and players in suspense. He puts guys on, he gives up a hit here and there, but generally is able to complete the save. However, that style lends itself to coming apart if the pitcher loses even a little bit of control or leaves his fastballs hanging up there a bit too long. Sherrill will likely find his way back to the closer’s role once he is able to manage his mechanics or whatever else is wrong with him this season. In the meantime, the O’s are in for a rude awakening in a disappointing bullpen this season.

What We Learned from Opening Day

It is very easy to make too much out of Opening Day and view it under a microscope. After all, you don’t judge a marathon on how a runner takes his first steps. However, yesterday afternoon’s 10-5 smash over many analyst’s pick to win the AL East (and perennial heart of evil in baseball) can give Orioles fans a host of reasons for jubilation, and a few reasons for concern moving forward. If nothing else, every win is one step closer to an improvement on last season. No matter what happens this season (100 losses is not out of the question), there will be plenty of story lines to follow.

Well, if yesterday’s game was any indication, the defense is for real. Aside from a ball falling out of Nick Markakis’ glove in foul territory late in the game, the fielding was exemplary. While the waterlogged infield may have helped slow the ball down slightly, Cesar Izturis played up to and beyond expectations in keeping balls from getting to the outfield and hustling to complete double plays. Brian Roberts should be able to play to his side and not worry about covering for a shortstop with limited range. Additionally, it seems as though Melvin Mora is putting off the defensive decline that comes with age for another year. His incredible grab to rob a base hit on a line drive showed that his reflexes are as good as ever- every year I am convinced that he will start to break down and every year he seems to prove me wrong at third. He isn’t the best defensive third baseman in the game, but he still does a solid job.

On the other hand, the bullpen might not be as strong as we thought. Chris Ray, coming off of a year-long absence from the game and a 0.00 ERA in spring training, served up a two run shot to Jorge Posada and Ray simply did not look like his old self. Let’s hope this was just due to jitters and not a greater problem with his health. He may need some time to readjust to the big leagues, but this pitching staff might not have much time to let him tinker away. Jamie Walker does not appear to have rebounded very well from last season (which he insisted was due to injury, but this writer is starting to doubt that), with the left-handed specialist struggling and failing to get out his one batter. Overall the Orioles had to burn through 6 relievers in 3 innings of work, with only Dennis Sarfate not allowing a man to get on base. Jim Johnson’s command was off, throwing way off the plate and showing obvious signs of frustration. He is going to have to get under control, as the 7-8-9 line of Ray, Johnson, and Sherrill will be critical for the starters to have a bit of rest now and then. Yesterday it didn’t happen, but Johnson’s wild pitching could have made things a lot worse for Baltimore.

As expected, these boys can hit. Every player except Luke Scott got at least one hit, but the biggest surprise has got to be Adam Jones’ patience at the plate. Jones consistently made pitchers throw him a good pitch before he’d swing, and it led to his 2 walks and 3 hits, with not a single at-bat wasted. Generally hitters who are impatient tend to stay that way; they can get slightly better or slightly worse but a high strike-out rate usually stays with a guy through his career. We had heard rumblings of Jones improving in that department, but I didn’t expect what I saw yesterday. It bodes very well for a 1-2 high on-base-percentage punch in Roberts and Jones at the top of the order. As I said earlier, Cesar Izturis came to play yesterday. His home run might or might not have come due to fan interference, but until I hear Yankee fans bemoaning the illegitimate “Jeffrey Maier” home run of 1996, I will take it with a shrug when playing New York. It was close enough not to overturn anything, anyway. Any time you score 10 runs it is a great output, and please let’s not pull the ESPN routine and blame the Oriole’s offense on CC’s bad day. As Manager Dave Trembley said in his postgame press conference, his players simply worked the count and forced CC to give them the pitch they wanted. No, the $161 million man didn’t have a great outing, but the O’s were not just cherry picking out there.

This was a great way to open the season, but there are still plenty of concerns. Luckily O’s fans have until Wednesday to bask in the glory of an Opening Day win. Enjoy it- there may be a rough season ahead, but yesterday’s performance was certainly uplifting. Let’s see how Koji Uehara fares in his MLB debut against this same vaunted Yankee lineup.

Free Kicks

For those of you who missed it (sorry for not posting a reminder), Falco and Windsor had one hell of a show on Tuesday on our Around the Harbor radio show on WMUC (every Tuesday night at 10 PM). Be sure to check out next week’s program, they save some of their best stuff for the show- you simply can’t get the same effect reading Windsor rant as you can hearing it when he just goes off on something. Now let’s line up for the kick…

Tech-nically Unsound
By signing a contract extension for 5 years yesterday, Mike Leach scored a major victory over some highly questionable employment decisions by Texas Tech University. After fighting for months to negotiate a new contract for the successful Red Raiders coach, Leach announced that he was ready to sign a new deal. However, as soon as he made the announcement, Tech went back and changed some of the language of his contract- including guaranteeing only 12% of his contract (most schools have upwards of 40%), mandating that Leach must get permission from the athletic department before he speaks with any other schools, and that all of his money from speaking engagements can be taken by the university. Look, I actually have no problem with these restrictions. I don’t care what it in the contract- but I care how it was done.

Texas Tech waited until Leach committed himself to the contract, and then changed the deal. What is this, Cloud City (sorry, had to make the reference)? After Leach rejected this sudden about-face (understandably), the Board of Regents decided to call an emergency meeting to discuss whether to fire him for not signing the extension. Come again? Who fires someone for not agreeing to extend with you? You keep them for as long as you can and hope you can work something out. Luckily this idiocy was stopped and a new deal was worked out. Don’t these Regents have something better to do? I don’t know, maybe something that has to do with educating students? I wonder how many emergency meetings were called about skyrocketing tuition costs…

So Much for Hometown Discounts
Okay, so forget all the hopeful words I said about Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott, and Ray Lewis coming back to Baltimore on a discounted deal to stay together. Apparently, like so much else said in the offseason, they were just thrown out there to assuage the fan base and earn good-will while the negotiations dragged on. Yahoo Sports is reporting that Terrell Suggs’ agent, Gary Wichard, is looking for the Ravens to pony up a Dwight Freeney-level deal for the DE/OLB, which would demand roughly $12 million a year. It is no surprise then that the Ravens were forced to use the franchise tag. This of course coming on the heels of Ray Lewis’ announcement that he is available to the highest bidder (that bidder will likely be the Ravens, but you would hate to see them put in that situation).

Against this backdrop it feels silly to have ever thought that Baltimore’s stars would take a discount to be in the city. As much as we love our pro athletes in this town, especially the ones who stay for their entire careers, I suppose they just don’t take discounts to stay. Nick Markakis’ deal contained no hometown discount whatsoever, as his deal was entirely in line with comparable players. Likewise, Brian Roberts would have probably gotten even less than he did from the Orioles in this free agent market (if he would even be employed- see Orlando Hudson). Both Baltimore teams have had faces of the franchise on the brink of free agency. Is it possible that the Orioles may do a better job of holding onto their talent this year than the Ravens?

Call Me an Optimist
I may be the only one in the world, but I think the Orioles starting rotation will be better than last year’s. Maybe not by a lot, but it will be. Windsor and Falco are watching for the sky to fall, but I would cite some big differences between last year and this year. First of all, the Orioles have more pitchers who are closer to major league ready (another year in the farm system does that). Last year they did not have Rich Hill, Hayden Penn (injury), or Dave Pauley to cushion the blow between Guthrie and having to call up Radhames Liz. That won’t be as big of a problem. The O’s also return numerous relievers from injury, including former closer Chris Ray, Danys Baez, and Jamie Walker could also return to form after an injury-plagued and ineffective season.

Troy Patton should be available later in the year, and let’s also not forget the acquisition of Koji Uehara who, even if he is not as good as he used to be, should be a serviceable pitcher in the majors for a couple years. No, the Orioles rotation is not good, but it has far more depth than ever. Baltimore won’t be dipping into AA nearly as early or often has they were tempted to last season. Invariably, some of this borderline talent will take strides, and there will be plenty of opportunities (and arms) to do so.